$200,000 ‘Starter Homes’ Becoming ‘a Myth’ – Last 4 U.S. Cities Where Renters Can Buy a House, Other Higher Cost Housing Metro Data ‘What a Difference 1 Month Makes’ – plus MHVille Stocks Update
“Vanishing inventory is just the tip of the unaffordability iceberg as daunting mortgage rates crush renters’ homeownership goals overnight,”Point2Homes said. “Homebuyers feel the squeeze as vanishing inventory, soaring mortgage rates, and near-record-high home prices spark one of the worst affordability crises in decades,” said the often contrarian financial news site, ZeroHedge, which cited new information from real estate research firm Point2Homes.
Point2Homes went on to note the following bullet points.
Based on the latest renter income figures, starter home prices and mortgage rates, in October, renters in Los Angeles and New York only earned 30% and 34%, respectively, of the income they would need to buy a starter home.
In 13 more of the 50 largest U.S. cities, renters earned less than half the income they would need to make the move from renters to homeowners.
Renters in only 4 large U.S. cities (Detroit; Tulsa, OK; Memphis, TN; Oklahoma City) earned 100% or more than what they needed to afford an entry-level home.
This very short list was all the more shocking because just one month prior, in September, it also includedKansas City, MO. And, one month before that, in August, Baltimore was also affordable for renters who wanted to make the move to homeownership.
In only 15 of the 50 largest U.S. cities, the price of a starter home still fits the “old” definition of the term: Entry-level houses here were $200,000 or less.
Point2Homes report provided this graphic among others that follow herein that demonstrates the vanishing affordability of conventional housing.
Their narrative on 10.17.2022 stated: “Further proof that starter homes are vanishing is their changing definition: They used to be the small, super-affordable houses that a young person or family could buy in order to get on the property ladder. But now, they’ve come to represent simply the cheapest homes available in a market, or homes that fall within the 5th to 35th percentile price range. And it’s not just renters and young families who are vying for them: Downsizing baby boomers, second homebuyers and property investors are in direct competition with first-time buyers for this dwindling housing segment.
However, scarce inventory is just the tip of the unaffordability iceberg: Rapidly rising prices and interest rates have even more serious consequences. So, to gauge the effect of the mortgage rate hikes on affordability, Point2 analysts reviewed data on the median price of a starter home and renter households’ median incomes in the 50 largest U.S. cities. They discovered that renters’ homeownership dreams don’t match the reality in almost any of the large U.S. housing markets.”
Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary
This gloomy scenario ZeroHedge and Point2Homes presented could be a boon for manufactured housing. But that would be true only if MHVille’s so-called post-production sector national trade group, the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), authentically pressed its rightful claim to some elusive promises available to manufactured homes found in specific federal laws. More on that further below the MHI graphic and related link, but first more from Point2Homes which doesn’t mention manufactured housing at all (so much for the promises by Kevin Clayton from over a decade ago, or that of other MHI leaders before or since to promote the manufactured home industry?).
Note that this research was from the days when MHI still made available to the public the bulk of their findings, instead of just select factoids that may not even show the underlying supportive data. Note 2: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report and others on MHProNews can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. For example, in some browsers/devices you click the image and select ‘open in a new window.’ After clicking that selection, you click the image in the open window to expand the image to a larger size. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts. https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/manufactured-housing-institute-mhis-roper-report-aarp-marty-lavin-strike-again-plus-manufactured-housing-stock-updates/
Point2Homes’ research said the following.
When Is a Starter Home Not a Starter Home? When It Costs $1 Million
The median starter home in San Francisco costs as much as the median starter homes in the top 10 most affordable cities combined.
As expected, the quickly rising interest rates took a large bite out of renters’ already limited buying power in America’s most expensive markets. Even under this study’s ideal conditions (in which we assumed a 20% down payment was already covered), entry-level homes were still unaffordable for renters in the majority of large U.S. cities.
For instance, in San Francisco, the average renter household made $100,715, but the amount a first-time buyer would need to comfortably cover mortgage payments was $251,190. This means that San Francisco renters are $150,475 (or 60%) short of making their homeownership dreams come true. Moreover, in three other cities (San Jose, CA; Los Angeles; and New York), renters were more than $100,000 short of the amount they would need to cover their mortgage on a starter home. In fact, Los Angeles renters had it the worst: They’re making 70% less than the amount they would need to comfortably cover their monthly mortgage.”
As ZeroHedge framed it, “Point2’s data shows the percentage of starter homes built over the years has collapsed.” That same source said: “To estimate affordability, Point2 follows the standard personal finance rule that a mortgage payment shouldn’t exceed 30% of a homeowner’s gross monthly income” before going on to say the following.
Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, expanded more on the affordability crisis:
“Trying to balance the housing market by choking off demand via higher mortgage rates is damaging to consumers and the economy.”
Under the Biden administration and [the] Powell-led Federal Reserve, the new “American dream” is a starter home in the dangerous neighborhoods of Detroit.”
That graphic from ZeroHedge above continues the earnings information compiled by CNN and Fox Business that MHProNews has previously cited during the Trump White House era, see those below.
CNN is not a pro-Trump media outlet, but using federal data, this graphic from their news company reflects the upward trend of income following President Trump’s enactment of the tax cuts and jobs act. It is worth noting that Democratic President John F. Kennedy Jr. did similarly. Income and productivity also rose. During the Reagan Administration, former Democrat turned Republican Ronald Reagan cut taxes with a similar outcome as Presidents Kennedy and Trump. Facts matter.
In under 21 months, what ZeroHedge, CNN, and Fox Businesses income/wage graphics above reflect is how quickly the gains made under President Donald J. Trump were lost under Biden, his handlers, their billionaire and corporate backers, and the balance of the Democratic Party that has reportedly co-opted DINO Dems and some RINOs too.
There are RINOs just as there are DINOs. The billionaire class and their corporate interests wield enormous influence over U.S. politics. Something similar is often true in other nations. Numbers of pundits have said for years that there is a two-tiered justice system in Americal. Citizens must ponder the meaning of the Trump property raid by the FBI as a possible example of an excessive show of force that have been displayed against other Trump supporters in recent years, often with little or no result in terms of convictions for a serious crime.
According to Point2Homes.
If affordable cities are becoming unaffordable overnight, unaffordable urban hubs are simply moving further into the realm of unaffordability. To that end, in October, renters in 15 cities earned less than 50% of what they needed to afford a starter home. This was much more than in August, when renters in only 11 cities were in this situation.
Granted, that’s not to say that renters who earn more than 50% of the income needed to afford an entry-level home are in an enviable position. In fact, their situation might be worse than that of renters in completely unaffordable markets, who definitely know that they aren’t — and probably never will be — able to afford a home.
Earning 70% or 80% of the income they need to comfortably cover their monthly payments keeps renters in a tense, frozen decisional space — their very own housing limbo. In this case, the question of whether they should or could make the switch to homeownership doesn’t have a clear no or a clear yes.”
What a Difference a Month Makes: Affordability Window Closes Overnight for Renters in Kansas City, MO & Baltimore
In August, when interest rates were hovering around 5.5%, renters in 6 large U.S. cities could comfortably afford to buy a starter home. One month and an interest hike later, that number swiftly fell to 5… and then 4.
What does it mean that renters could comfortably afford to buy a starter home? Well, the accepted rule is that a mortgage payment should not exceed 30% of your gross monthly income. Accordingly, after calculating how much the mortgage would be in each of the 50 cities (taking into consideration the median price of a starter home and assuming a 20% down payment), we calculated a renter’s required income and compared it to their actual income. The result? Renters in only four cities earned enough to cover their monthly mortgage payments.”
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Note that $35,000 annual income is a figure often cited by MHI that is supposed to reflect the typical income of a manufactured homeowner.
Using that 35K annual household income figure and the data from Point2Homes, most residents in Miami, Florida that now rent could in theory make the payment that could allow them to own a manufactured home. So too the residents in Tucson, Arizona or Fresno California could cover their mortgage payment on a manufactured home, per MHI’s data. But in all three of those markets at present, Point2Homes data indicates they can’t buy conventional housing. Interest rates and new or resale conventional housing prices are too high. Plus, those renters do not earn enough money. So much for Biden’s “Build Back Better” and promised housing affordability promises? See the linked reports below to understand the reality based on published research and a recent admission by a top Democratic Party elected leader.
Currently, the average renter in Tulsa, OK; Detroit; Memphis, TN; and Oklahoma City earns more than what they would need to buy a starter home and transition to homeownership. For example, a renter in Tulsa would need to make close to $30,000 to cover the monthly mortgage payments for the median starter home, but renters here made $35,000, on average.
Detroit; Tulsa, OK; and Memphis, TN, stood out for their affordability mostly because the median starter home in all three cities was less than $100,000. However, they were also on the podium because renter household incomes here were high enough to cover the mortgage, taxes, and insurance, as well. In fact, in these three cities, renters made $5,901, $5,515 and $3,007, respectively, more than the income needed to cover their first home mortgage expenses.
Similarly, renters in Oklahoma City also earned a little more than enough to move to homeownership: They made $140 above the amount required.
In August, when interest rates hovered around 5.5%, six markets were affordable for renters. One month later, rates reached 6% and only five cities remained on the affordable cities list. Then, in October, when the interest rate went from 6% to 7%, only four cities were left in the enviable category of markets with affordable starter homes for renters who want to become homeowners: The affordability door closed for renters in two large cities:Kansas City, MO, and Baltimore were drawn into unaffordable territory. They joined the other 44 large cities where renters earned only 93% or much less than what they would need to comfortably afford to pay their monthly mortgage.
The starter home’s new and simplified definition is “the most affordable home in town.” However, this simplified definition does nothing to simplify matters for first-time buyers. The change in definition can’t mask the painful reality: Even starter homes — which should represent the epitome of affordability — are increasingly becoming anything but.”
Point2Homes stated that their data set for their research was from the information provided below.
City
State
Median Starter Home Price September
Starter Home Down Payment (20%)
Loan Amount
Yearly Payment (6% rate)
Yearly Income Required (6%)
Yearly Payment (7% rate)
Yearly Income Required (7%)
Median Income (Renter Household)
Renter Household Income as % of Income Required (with 6% rate)
Renter Household Income as % of Income Required (with 7% rate)
Note too that in city after city, the costliest locations happen to be Democratically run municipalizes. As political independents, MHProNews has long noted that policies matter. Kennedy Democrats would not recognize the Democratic Party today. It is likely that the Democratic Party today would not accept the late President John F. Kennedy (D) into their fold, because he was a tax and regulation cutter, as were Presidents Ronald Reagan (R) and Donald Trump (R). But note too that Reagan was a Democrat turned Republican. Trump also held Democratic views earlier in his life.
ZeroHedge added these orange arrows below to the Point2Homes graphic shown further above. It is followed by a graphic previously used by MHProNews that noted that the rate of homeownership rose under Trump. That correlates to wage gains and a lower inflation and interest rates during the Trump era than occurred under Obama’s or Biden’s time in office.
The facts herein reflect several realities. Among them?
Manufactured housing could have tremendous upside potential, if only the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 (MHIA) enhanced preemption over local zoning were enforced.
Further, if the Duty to Serve Manufactured Housing, and the FHA Title I/Ginnie Mae program opportunities were properly functioning, manufactured home interest rates on personal property loans would be lower too. But neither of those two programs are working as they did some years ago when manufactured housing sales were roaring.
While some could make the argument that when MHVille sales soared there were too many liar loans (true enough), that doesn’t mean that such is the case today. To punish manufactured housing today for something that occurred some 2+ decades ago is utter nonsense. Why isn’t site built housing still being punished for the sins of their ‘no doc’ and ‘liar loans’ in the run-up to the 2008 housing and financial crisis? Clearly, site-built housing has better advocacy than MHI offers “all segments” of MHVille!
But there is more. The evidence and known facts strongly suggest that MHI arguably postures efforts that are based on often paltering statements. But when they are examined in the proverbial rear-view mirror as defined by Warren Buffett, MHI’s actions and inactions routinely have led to more industry consolidation. That is the subtle yet in-your-face facts that emerge when some of MHI’s own publicly traded members investor packages are carefully examined.
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There are individual corporate members of the Manufactured Housing Institute that merit scrutiny for antitrust, RICO, Hobbs Act, and other possible legal violations. But the association has its own unique status. MHI as a trade group must be held up to its own claims. When the association’s claims are examined in the light of contradicting facts and evidence, that should trigger federal and/or state investigations. Affordable housing shortages impact every state in the U.S. Several of the illustrations shown in this report can be opened in many browsers to reveal a larger size. The image above can be expanded to reveal a larger size, depending on your browser or device. For example. Click the image and you may have a window that gives the option of opening the image in a new window. Click to select that option. Then in that new window, click the image again to increase the size of the image. An escape or back key and return you to this page, or “x” out to close that window and return to this page.
MHI’s loyalists may not like such facts, but too bad. The facts are what they are. Third-party researchers have supported the thesis found on MHProNews. Additionally, MHI’s own leaders have praised the accuracy of our reports and “unbiased” analysis several times in the past.
Furthermore, MHI’s prior president and CEO was on record (on video camera) saying that the industry should grow slowly back to its historic levels of production and sales. Indeed, it has.
It is only after examining years of such examples of promises and plans made by MHI that magically never come to pass that the realization that MHI is paltering, posturing, preening, and at times projecting onto others their own failures – that reality – begins to emerge.
Tiny House advocates have managed to get the Institute for Justice to sue on their behalf, or to press municipal officials short of a suit to have individuals and smaller business enjoy their constitutionally protected rights. That begs the question. Where is MHI in suing to get its rights under the MHIA’s enhanced preemption enforced? Or where is MHI on getting DTS implemented or Ginnie Mae’s 10/10 rule revoked?
But the troubling yet evidence-based reality is clear. MHI talks a big talk, but when their words are measured against their deliverables, MHI fails time and again to deliver on its own stated claims. See the related reports to learn more.
Neither Point2Homes, nor ZeroHedge mentioned manufactured housing. The sad realities that MHI funded Roper Report research often remains as true today as they were over 15 years ago. DTS was enacted some 14 years ago. Where is the beef from MHI on that issue? MHI used to brag about working with MHARR to get the MHIA of 2000 enacted. Today, the MHI produced graphic below is not to be found on the public side of the MHI website. Why is that so?
This was a recent document from a tipster. The illustrations are by MHProNews, but the base document used to be on MHI’s website. MHI used to posture efforts to work with MHARR leaders. Now, MHI oddly brags about working with mainstream housing “coalition partners.” So, whose side is MHI on? Mainstream housing? Or manufactured housing? And why? MHI’s prior president and CEO, Dick Jennison at the left, and Mark Weiss, J.D., on the right. This flashback to 2003 image was first uploaded by MHProNews on December 16, 2019. MHI apparently can’t be embarrassed into doing what they say they do on behalf of “all segments” of the manufactured housing industry. Perhaps if a new Congress dominated by MAGA Republicans takes over following the November 8, 2022 midterms, Congress can once more probe what’s gone wrong in the MHVille industry? Perhaps they can explore MHI’s role in that derailment of America’s most proven form of affordable housing? MHProNews looks at the facts, considers the sources, and follows the evidence. MHI earlier last year, and for years before, MHI routinely replied promptly to all inquiries. But since we’ve spotlighted the problems and concerns, they’ve gone silent. Why? If the facts are on their side, why not make offer a cogent explanation? https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/fake-news-the-truth-about-american-news-and-views-practical-tips-for-spotting-propaganda-what-facts-evidence-analysis-reveals/ When Bloomberg seemed to cheer the recovery of manufactured housing and praised the industry’s potential, Marty Lavin quipped that he had seen such stories for years. He went on to say that little seems to follow such glowing reports of the industry’s potential. https://manufacturedhousingassociationregulatoryreform.org/the-illusion-of-motion-versus-real-world-challenges/
Some have said for months-to-a-year or more that the Biden-Democratic plan for America was going to lead to a series of crises. That claim has come to pass. The Democratic House Majority Whip, the #3 elected official for the Democrats in the U.S. House, James “Jim” Clyburn (SC-D) essentially confirmed some of those claims by admitting to left-leaning MSNBC that all of his House colleagues ‘knew’ that inflation would result from pumping so much money into the economy. Put differently, that makes the claims from last year that inflation would be ‘transitory’ an apparent lie. MHProNews is on record, based on policy – not partisanship, because we are political independents editorially and are willing to source notions across the left right divide.
Much like Democrats are creating a crisis to then promise to offer a ‘solution’ to that crisis, MHI appears to operate from a similar playbook, albeit less obviously partisan. MHI claims to work for “all segments” of manufactured housing. But when the results are examined, it becomes clear that the primary beneficiaries of MHI action/inaction routinely are deeper pocket operations that are busily consolidating their segment of the industry. That consolidation ploy, a scheme that conceptually Minneapolis Federal Reserve Researchers call ‘sabotaging monopoly’ tactics, has ironically been confirmed by the Biden White House. To learn more, see the linked reports that follow.
When you read them keep these Ps in mind. Paltering. Posturing. Preening, Pretty Promises made but not kept. That pattern is occurring among numbers of elected or appointed public officials, corporate leaders, and certain nonprofits. The truth isn’t always pretty. But absent the truth, a person or organization is more likely to become the next victim of those who deploy these tactics which benefit the few but harm the many.
If you or your circle haven’t already voted in the upcoming midterms, do so. Vote the rascals out. The red wave is widely reported to be coming. But it always, always comes down to turnout and actual voting. Of course, monitoring elections to prevent fraud is another element which the GOP seems to be better prepared for in 2022 than they were in 2020. Time will tell. But don’t depend on others. Vote! Then press elected officials in 2023 to legally hold the evil-doers to account.
Facts. Evidence. Applied commonsense or ‘logic.’ Don’t let yourself or those you care about get manipulated again and again. That featured image from a reportedly old, 550 square foot condo in Jersey City, N.J. for $192,000 could buy a larger, good single family manufactured home on a privately owned piece of property in dozens of states. America needs affordable housing. Manufactured housing is the most proven form of permanent affordable housing in modern American history. Even the Modular Home Builders Association (MHBA) executive director Tom Hardiman has said as much. Manufactured homes, plus other forms of factory-home building (think modular, prefabs, ADUs, etc.) are necessary for the future of our country and for the stability of the overall housing market. Shame on MHI for failing to message this and press our industry’s advantages as they pledged doing when they announced that a public relations person would be hired years ago. What happens to those promises? That’s why looking in the rear-view mirrors and thinking objectively based on facts and evidence matters.
NOTICE: Based on feedback, a modification of our Daily Business News on MHProNews recap of yesterday evening’s market report is provided. It will still include our left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines. The macro market moves graphics will provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities.
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Headlines fromleft-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 10.24.2022
October surprise
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, the United States, Oct. 7, 2022.
This month has become infamous for stock market crashes, but so far stocks are sizzling
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The risk of an accidental recession is rising, Goldman Sachs says
Pound seesaws as Rishi Sunak prepares to confront UK’s huge economic challenges
Why investors aren’t going green
Forget Big Banks. It pays to be smaller
Elon Musk must close Twitter deal by end of this week or face trial
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Hong Kong stocks plunge 6% on fears about Xi’s third term
EU formally adopts law requiring Apple to support USB-C chargers
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WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 23: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) listens at the confirmation hearing for Samantha Power, nominee to be Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on March 23, 2021 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. Power previously served as U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. during the Obama administration.
Protesters interrupt Ted Cruz’s interview on ‘The View’
Apple raises prices for music and TV streaming services
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Kraft Heinz CEO: Inflation and supply shortages are here to stay for a while
A-LISTERS
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“In the business world, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” – Warren Buffett. That begs a key question. Why don’t more people LOOK at the rearview mirror so they can learn more about the patterns that influence what’s ahead? Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report can be clicked to expand. or example, in some browsers/devices you click the image and select ‘open in a new window.’ After clicking that selection, you click the image in the open window to expand the image to a larger size. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Artwork by Erin Hanson
These artists found out their work was used to train AI. Now they’re furious
This guy is using AI to make a movie — on Twitter
The White House released an ‘AI Bill of Rights’
Anyone can now use powerful AI tools to make images
Meta is using AI to generate videos from a few words
GOP Sen.-nominee Leora Levy: Turnout Is Key | video
Debate Offers Oz, Fetterman Pathways to Victory platinum
More The 2022 Elections
In instances such as Apollo, Berkshire Hathaway, Blackstone or others, manufactured housing may only be part of their corporate interests. Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report and others on MHProNews can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. For example, in some browsers/devices you click the image and select ‘open in a new window.’ After clicking that selection you click the image in the open window to expand the image to a larger size. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts.
Newsmax TV
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Newsfront
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NOTE 1: The 3rd chart above includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry lender
NOTE 2: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
NOTE 3: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm. Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.
Note 4: some recent or related reports to the equities named above follow.
2022 …Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory-built housing industry suppliers. · LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others. · AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here.
Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
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All on Capitol Hill were welcoming and interested in manufactured housing related issues. But Congressman Al Green’s office was tremendous in their hospitality. Our son’s hand is on a package that included a copy of the Constitution of the United States and other goodies. Tamas has grown considerably since this photo was taken.
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews. Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards and honors and also recognition in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.