Many factors in the broader housing market directly or indirectly impact manufactured and modular housing, pointing to challenges as well as opportunities. Builderonline (BO) says that 2015 could be a turn around year, an “inflection point” for more first time buyers entering the home buying market.
BO cited the National Association of Realtors (NAR), whose Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated that “2015 could mark a turnaround.” Previously reluctant Millennials may enter the housing market in greater numbers, Buillderonline suggests.
If so, this could be welcome news for all housing professionals, including those focused on manufactured and modular home sales.
Writing in a Wall Street Journal blog, Sarah Portlock points out that the percentage of young or first time home buyers has been down. Citing the NAR’s October report, Portlock says the percentage of first time buyers has been below 30% 18 of the last 19 months.
NAR’s Yun said, “First-time buyers in this year are essentially at their low point. I do anticipate some growth going into next year.”
Portlock opined that “Factors that would encourage first-time buyers to enter the market are “developing positively” now, he added, pointing to stronger job creation, underwriting standards that have been “dialed down,” and the return of mortgage products that allow buyers to only put down 3% and pay mortgage insurance.”
Topics Portlock notes have been tracked by the Daily Business News, for example in the GSE’s discussed changes in lending that would lead to more loans. The Urban Institute’s Laurie Goodman said recently that loan underwriting changes may have only a minor added risk but could add up to 300,000 new loans per quarter. Those are loans, Goodman says, that are currently being denied.
It seems clear that all housing sales are rising since the bottom of the great recession circa 2009, and it would be welcome news for more first time buyers to return to the market. But one possible problem with graphs like the ones shown is a troubling note raised by HousingWire senior financial writer Trey Garrison, who alleges that the numbers have been cooked by the federal government to make the economy look better than it is; that news brief is linked here. ##
(Graphics credits: Wall Street Journal)
