“A Lack of Supply Isn’t Causing Our Housing Crisis,” says attorney Fran Quigley, who added that: “Millions of people simply do not make enough money to consistently afford market-rate housing.” Quigley directs the Health and Human Rights Clinic at Indiana University McKinney School of Law. Quigley shared his thoughts published on 8.13.2023 in left-leaning Common Dreams. Quigley advocates a perspective advanced by authors Alex Schwartz and Kirk McClure. Schwartz, a professor at the New School, literally wrote the book on U.S. housing, Housing Policy in the United States. According to Bing’s AI Chat function Schwartz mentions manufactured housing. But Quigley’s Common Dreams article does not. It is hard to champion manufactured housing when you don’t even mention it, but fortunately for the industry’s professionals, investors, and affordable housing advocates, MHProNews will unpack what Quigley said as well as what he missed in Part II of this report and analysis. That noted, Quigley’s claims are noteworthy and are provided in Part I, which follows. Note that the base featured image above was the featured image used by Common Dreams, sans the additions by MHProNews.
Part I
A Lack of Supply Isn’t Causing Our Housing Crisis
Millions of people simply do not make enough money to consistently afford market-rate housing.
A few weeks ago, I drove through my hometown of Indianapolis to a court session which had nearly 200 eviction cases set on the docket. On the way, I passed multiple construction projects, several of them building apartments or other housing.
Contrary to popular belief, all that construction won’t help the hundreds of families I saw facing eviction. Nor will it be of any benefit to almost any of the 13 million other households currently behind on their rent or mortgage or the 600,000 people who are homeless in this country.
You wouldn’t know that from listening to the Biden administration, state governors, and think tanks, all of whom trumpet the virtues of building more housing. The New York Times diagnoses homelessness as a simple “supply-and-demand problem.”
Schwartz and McClure put it plainly: “Nationally, there is no shortage of housing, and adding to the surplus won’t resolve the nation’s affordability problems.”
The Atlantic writes that “The Obvious Answer to Homelessness” is, you guessed it, building more housing. Earlier this summer, when tenants brought their concerns about high rents to the National Multifamily Housing Council, the largest corporate landlord lobby in the country, they too were told that their struggles to afford rising rents could be solved if we just build additional housing.
How did such a powerful consensus come together? As the saying goes, follow the money. Government subsidies and tax breaks for housing construction makes real estate developers fabulously wealthy. Banks, realtors, and corporate builders prosper from new construction, too. These industries’ fingerprints are all over the reams of reports and articles claiming that we must build our way out of the housing crisis. As Politico reported in November, “Lobbyists are scrambling to get help from Washington to goose the housing market.”
Maybe we should listen instead to the housing experts whose bank accounts don’t get a boost every time a crane goes up. Take Alex Schwartz and Kirk McClure. Schwartz, a professor at the New School, literally wrote the book on U.S. housing, Housing Policy in the United States, now in its fourth edition from Routledge Press. McClure is professor emeritus in urban planning at the University of Kansas. Like Schwartz, he is a widely-published, highly-decorated expert on housing markets.
In a recent Barron’s article, Schwartz and McClure decided to look past the housing-supply hype and crunch the numbers. Those numbers show that 21st century housing construction has produced a surplus of 3.5 million units, including a surplus in virtually every metropolitan area. New York, for example, has a quarter-million more units than are needed to house its population.
Schwartz and McClure put it plainly: “Nationally, there is no shortage of housing, and adding to the surplus won’t resolve the nation’s affordability problems.” …
The balance of Quigley’s thesis is found on Common Dreams or on the linked attachment. But a few more pull quotes are useful for illustrating Quigley’s bottom-line push.
“Past the profit-focused cacophony insisting on building more housing, Schwartz’s and McClure’s warning is being repeated by others. Allan Mallach, a senior fellow at the Center for Community Progress and the National Housing Institute, concurred in large part with Schwartz and McClure in a Shelterforce article earlier this year. While Mallach does think building modestly-priced housing will help middle-income families, he rejected out of hand the notion that housing construction will solve the crisis experienced by the very low-income people who are homeless or housing insecure.” …
“So, if a lack of supply is not the problem, what is causing our housing crisis? Schwartz, McClure, Mallach, and others offer the straightforward explanation that is also reported annually by the National Low-Income Housing Coalition’s Out of Reach reports, which is the same explanation our clients tell us time after time: Millions of people simply do not make enough money to consistently afford market-rate housing. We routinely represent people who fell behind on rent because it amounted to 80% and more of their entire incomes from low-wage work or disability checks. As the title of a 2019 Mallach article pointed out, “Rents Will Only Go So Low, No Matter How Much We Build.”” …
“New construction won’t fix that problem. But other approaches will, including expanded and improved public housing and rent control.” …
“Schwartz, McClure, Mallach, and others call for universal housing vouchers, a fast, straightforward remedy for the shameful fact that 3 of every 4 eligible households are blocked from transformative housing subsidies simply because we don’t fund the program adequately. Universal vouchers, featured in President Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign platform, should be an interim step on the path to social housing freed of the for-profit market.”
Quigley notes that building more housing does have a side benefit of “creating good-paying jobs and providing more options for middle-income households.” But he concludes by arguing “let’s stop pretending that it will solve the affordability crisis faced by our clients and millions of other low-income Americans.”##
Part II – Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary
This analysis part of the report will be in two segments following this preface. Part II, #1 will focus on some background information that is manufactured housing focused which is obliquely raised by Quigley’s column. #2 will further probe what the lack of mention of manufactured housing has to do with the value, or lack thereof, of Quigley’s thesis.
#1
A word search of the above by the colorfully apparently pro-leftist Quigley has no mentions of “manufactured housing,” “manufactured home,” or even the dated term “mobile home.” It is hard to imagine how an attorney involved in affordable housing policy can fail to mention manufactured homes, but Quigley has managed to do so. As noted in the preface of this article, MHProNews asked Bing’s AI chat function: “Does Housing Policy in the United States by Alex Schwartz mention manufactured housing?”
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Yes, Fran Quigley has mentioned manufactured housing. In fact, Fran Quigley is an author who has written about manufactured housing. One of his articles on Jacobin magazine talks about how mobile home residents are being exploited and regularly evicted by giant Wall Street firms like Blackstone1. I hope that helps!
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A check to see if any other trade media or bloggers, including or beyond Rolfe, having explored Quigley and his housing articles yielded no results. But MHLivingNews and a EIN news release with MHProNews and MHLivingNews was reported by Bing’s search and Bing’s AI functions.
A refined question yielded this result.
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#2
For whatever reason(s), Quigley dodged the manufactured housing option. So, a key piece of evidence important for a fair analysis of his thesis is missing. For argument’s sake, let’s presume that Quigley and his cited sources are all 100 percent accurate on the claim that more housing alone isn’t the solution. That still doesn’t automatically make his bottom-line reasoning for his proposed ‘solutions’ accurate, when a key piece of evidence is missing from his analysis. That key evidence is the production of more affordable housing, or more specifically, more HUD Code manufactured housing.
As an analogy, if a doctor doesn’t consider a proven cure and then reviews all of the treatments that are proven not to work, and such an MD then advocates a path from among the less or ineffective solutions, a logical fallacy is the result. No cure will be obtained. But if an often-proven treatment is fairly considered, then a doctor is far more likely to prescribe the correct treatment, and a cure can follow.
Quigley may or may not be doing his ‘advocacy’ sincerely. While relevant, there is no need at this point to disparage Quigley.
But even a sincerely incorrect ‘solution’ is still incorrect.
Computer programmers decades ago coined the term GIGO, which means “Garbage In, Garbage Out.” As an attorney, Quigley likely knows the importance and relevance of avoiding logical fallacies and considering all of the relevant facts, not just some of them. But again, people are human and confirmation bias – among other challenges – can kick in.
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Quigley’s arguments, as his own references point out, are not new.
What Quigley fails to mention is that the proposals advanced – more rent control, more housing vouchers, etc. – have not worked for decades. If they did, we wouldn’t be writing or reading articles like his or ours.
There has been housing subsidies for decades. Ditto rent control, LIHTC, etc. Yet, the problems persist.
Rent control, per left-leaning Wikipedia began in the U.S.: “Between 1919 and 1924, a number of cities and states adopted rent- and eviction-control laws. Modern rent controls were first adopted in response to the Great Depression.” Wikipedia also said that: “New York’s current rent control program began in 1943.”
Rent control has demonstrably not worked as claimed in any U.S. jurisdiction, as evidenced by several reports dealing with the issue from both a conventional housing and a manufactured housing perspective reveal. As an example, Paul Bradley with ROC USA might fairly be described as someone in the progressive camp, not unlike how Quigley might be described. But Bradley correctly pointed out the fallacy of rent controls.
MHLivingNews provided a viewpoint from a volunteer resident-advocate who wanted rent control, but only as a stop-gap measure. MHProNews/MHLivingNews have explored this issue for years and are well aware of the various arguments around the question.
MHProNews has itself cited the NLIHC Gap Report numerous times, which Quigley also referenced. The GAP Report has much useful research and information. But unfortunately, the NLIHC too have downplayed the possible remedy that more manufactured housing could provide in the marketplace. Like Quigley, the NLIHC favors more government subsidies that haven’t worked for decades.
MHI, by way of contrast to Hardiman, touted the Biden Housing Plan. Why? Perhaps because it mentioned manufactured housing several times. MHProNews called into question MHI’s arguably errant thinking at the time. In all too short order, one of several cautionary reports and analysis by MHProNews was proven to be correct. Months before the current downturn began, MHProNews detailed why MHI was logically incorrect in their thinking and approach. The report and analysis linked below was just one example that has since proven to be correct.
Didn’t political science Ph.D. Gooch realize that actions speak louder than words? Couldn’t Gooch see that the Biden Housing Plan, by merely mentioning manufactured housing, didn’t mean that more manufactured housing would actually follow? Gooch did her doctoral dissertation on ‘champions’ for a cause. Where is the post-production champion for manufactured housing, because what Quigley raised was post-production topics. Again, MHProNews has systematically called into question errant thinking within and without the manufactured housing industry. Facts, evidence, and applied common sense all matter. GIGO – garbage in, garbage out.
MHARR went beyond their offer linked above by saying just over a year ago why decades of talk and various plans in Washington, D.C. often fails to “reach the ground” in a white paper that addressed the subject of federal programs promises vs. results. MHARR also routinely points out what their experience and reasoning reveal to be the weaknesses in MHI and/or federal policies. While MHARR has by far the most institutional knowledge and industry experience in Washington, D.C., MHI is a veritable revolving door in the 21st century. If MHI were sincere in their claims of wanting to robustly grow manufactured housing at this time, which is debatable, then why has production in the 21st century shrunk below the level of the industry when Berkshire bought out Clayton Homes and Oakwood manufactured housing?
Despite what TRERC has been saying off and on for months, will the 9 months decline in YoY production of manufactured housing finally be reversed? The answer to that will be known next week, when the latest data is released. Stay tuned to MHProNews to see those facts, along with our signature expert analysis. If the answer ends up once more as ‘no,’ at what point will professional people question the sources of the information? Our simple search at MHProNews for the reality, facts, and evidence vs. the hype routinely has served our readers well.
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Why is it that time after time, MHI in the 21st century is routinely been late to the dance?
Why do they advocate in a fashion that is almost assured of failure?
Are they merely performing for the ‘razzle dazzle’ (see logical fallacies posted above) effect, without actually doing what is necessary to advance the industry? That was an argument that ex-MHI VP and MHARR’s founding president and CEO, Danny Ghorbani advanced. Ghorbani’s solution – like his colleague Mark Weiss, J.D. – is routinely that existing federal laws must be earnestly and robustly enforced. That enforcement obviously needs legal action. At least MHI’s version of lobbying in the 21st century has demonstrably not worked as advertised.
After months of being hammered by reports on MHProNews and from the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR), MHI finally sued the DOE to stop their arguably errant energy rule. But MHI has sent mixed messages on that topic since their suit successfully stalled implementation. Are they going to let DOE’s rule go into effect without more serious legal efforts? Recall that in an interview with MHProNews, ex-MHI vice president turned MHARR founding president and CEO Danny Ghorbani pointed out MHI’s apparently duplicitous role in causing the DOE energy rule to go into effect in the first place.
Perhaps the most detailed history of that DOE rule anywhere online, other than on our platform, is found at this link here.
In a flurry of irony, MHI’s own attorneys have argued that the DOE energy rule is “irreparable” in its harm. In his comments to Congress for MHI and Cavco, Bill Boor has said similarly. Then why have they allowed that DOE topic to lapse into a kind of muted limbo? Why aren’t MHI-TMHA attorneys vigorously fighting that battle, since there is broad agreement that the rule will hurt the industry? Given their problematic 21st century history, isn’t it obvious why MHARR has to keep pressing MHI leaders time and again to do MHI’s own claimed jobs properly?
As MHProNews has previously reported in prior fact checks and analysis, the DOE suit has ironically illustrated the fact that organic growth by manufactured housing industry firms – as opposed to growth via M&A or “consolidation” – in many ways boils down to the need to litigate, lobby, and perhaps to fix some existing legislation, so long as it is correctly and surgically performed. See MHARR founding staff leader Ghorbani’s points on that in the report linked above and below.
MHARR’s President and CEO Mark Weiss’ interview with MHLivingNews reflects and links the various ways that MHI has been failing the independents of the industry through unforced errors.
Loyal MHI member Darren Krolewski has said that one of the problems limiting the industry is that there is more bad news than good news. Isn’t that a call to look in the mirror? Isn’t it time for MHI and their supporters to push the organization into doing its self-proclaimed claimed job properly and successfully?
Cavco (CVCO) and Skyline Champion (SKY) – with or without Clayton Homes – could jointly or individually fund the needed litigation and/or Congressional action necessary to get good existing laws enforced. Yet, neither are doing so. They are not alone. By failing to energetically press the issues that limit manufactured housing, aren’t those leaders failing in their fiduciary duty to investors and stakeholders?
A key solution to the affordable housing crisis has been hiding in plain sight for years. Quigley has a limited point that if properly applied could makes sense.
Namely, that there is a need for not just more housing, but there is a need for more affordable housing.
Quigley was logically wrong not to point out manufactured housing’s possible role in solving the problem he claims to care so deeply and understandably about. Perhaps some citizens might need subsidies for a time until sufficient new affordable housing is built. But as MHLivingNews pointed out during the Obama Administration, a proper use of millions of more new manufactured homes could in time eliminate the need for subsidized housing programs. MHLivingNews also documented, in part by using HUD’s own research, that for 50 years politicians have been talking about zoning and financing solutions without actually implementing the needed reforms.
The only ones who can rapidly and positively impact the affordable housing crisis by potentially millions of new homes are members of factory-built housing industry.
More specifically, the manufactured housing industry is proven to be the most affordable option.
HUD ironically is the primary regulator of HUD Code manufactured homes, yet they have failed for decades to be part of the solution. Who said? Not just Cavco’s Bill Boor in his recent remarks to Congress. But also Cavco’s Manny Santana in comments to Congress in 2012 regarding HUD’s failure to properly implement the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 (MHIA) and its enhanced preemption provision. Such authentic and accurate history of the manufactured housing industry’s actions and inactions in the 21st century are crucial to understand in order to actually achieve the claimed goal. Namely, more affordable housing. Because Quigley is right to this extent, millions can’t afford the conventional housing that is currently being built.
Yet, MHI’s insiders appear to be more focused on consolidation than organic growth.
Until those issues are resolved – by legal, regulatory, or other action – the status quo will likely continue or grow worse. That’s reality.
Screaming if the rent is too ‘d-mn’ high might feel good for a few moments. But solutions require the hard work of implementation that goes beyond whatever smokescreens that powerful special interests which obviously like the status quo generate. They do so because they think they are profiting from it. The irony is that they could potentially profit still more if only they were willing to do the necessary heavy lifting. Oddly, they know that more developing and production are useful and profitable. But they still don’t do it. That may require serious inquiries and legal action to accomplish the needed remedy. Because business as usual is dead or dying, as more people are wising up to the various ways that the system is protecting their own. ##
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Part III. Daily Business News on MHProNews Markets and Headline News Segment
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 8.28.2023
- Largest fine ever
- American Airlines hit with a $4.1 million penalty by the Department of Transportation for tarmac delays as long as six hours
- Walt Disney Pictures VFX workers file for unionization
- Rite Aid stock is experiencing extreme turbulence: Here’s why
- EMBARGOED Starbucks PSL 2023
- Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spice Latte is back, and it’s celebrating its 20th anniversary
- Large US tech companies face new EU rules
- LONDON, ENGLAND – JULY 14: An Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) sign is displayed at the entrance to the zone on July 14, 2023 in London, England. The expansion of London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) scheme, due to be in operation by the end of August 2023, is facing legal opposition from outer London boroughs with the results of a Judicial Review due by the end of July.
- London is about to become a very expensive place for polluting cars
- US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo (R) speaks next to US Ambassador to China Nick Burns (L) during a meeting with China’s Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao at the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing on August 28, 2023.
- US Commerce Secretary Raimondo offers China more dialogue at ‘very open’ talks in Beijing
- SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – AUGUST 26: A sign is posted outside of Nordstrom’s flagship store at the San Francisco Centre on August 26, 2023 in San Francisco, California. Nordstrom will close its flagship store this Sunday after more than three decades at the San Francisco Centre. The Covid pandemic and rising crime in the area has contributed to a 25 percent sales decline at the mall and stores in the surrounding area.
- Nordstrom closes its San Francisco store after 35 years
- Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in Moran, Wyoming, US, on Friday, Aug. 25, 2023. Powell said the US central bank is prepared to raise interest rates further if needed and intends to keep borrowing costs high until inflation is on a convincing path toward the Fed’s 2% target. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images
- The Fed is ‘flying blind’ on the economy. Will this week’s jobs data help?
- Move over Wordle, the New York Times might have found its next hit game
- Chinese stocks get brief uplift from first share dealing tax cut since 2008
- The spiraling cost of war means growing economic pain for Russia
- Evergrande shares plunge 70%. The Chinese developer is still losing billions
- China says its ban on Japanese seafood is about safety. Is it really?
- BYD unit buys US firm Jabil’s China mobility business for $2.2 billion
- Celebrity video site sees a surge of actor sign-ups in the wake of the strike
- National Cinema Day is back with $4 movie tickets
- US consumer spending is expected to cool further but not fall off a cliff
- Americans are being asked to consider tipping more often, but is it really required?
- Why do we say tall instead of small? How Starbucks created its own language for ordering coffee
- Fox News apologizes to Gold Star family after facing backlash over false story
- Personal emergency kits are a growing market in an uncertain world
- What happens in Jackson Hole doesn’t stay in Jackson Hole
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Headlines from right-of-center Newsmax 8.28.2023
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- Judge Chutkan Sets March 4 Trial Date for Trump in DC Case
- Pollster Soltis Anderson: Indictments ‘Galvanized’ Support for Trump | video
- Fmr Ga. Prosecutor: Changing Georgia Case Venue to Feds ‘Game Changer’ | video
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- Trump’s Georgia Arraignment Set for Sept. 6
- PAC: Biden Has ‘No Shame’ Fundraising on Indictments
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- Newsmax TV
- Millbrae, Calif., Mayor: Tiny Town on Hook for 20% of Homeless
- Rosendale: Biden ‘Shut Down’ US Energy | video
- Larry Elder: Debate Ban Over Poll ‘Bizarre’ | video
- RFK Jr.: DNC Opposes Me as I’m Threat to Biden | video
- Holt: Prigozhin Has ‘Earmarks of Revenge Hit’ | video
- Dick Morris: First Debate Was Beneath Trump | video
- Burchett: ‘Hell Yes’ on Impeachment Inquiry | video
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- Florida Braces for Idalia Hitting as Category 3 Hurricane
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2023 …Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory-built housing industry suppliers.
· LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others.
· AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here.
2022 was a tough year for many stocks. Unfortunately, that pattern held true for manufactured home industry (MHVille) connected stocks too. See the facts, linked above.
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Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
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- Note 1: MHVille means manufactured housing industry, MHVille also means artificially smaller manufactured housing (MH) industry,
- Note 2: Manufactured housing, production, factories, retail, dealers, manufactured home, communities, passive mobile home park investing, suppliers, brokers, finance, financial services, macro-markets, manufactured housing stocks, Manufactured Home Communities Real Estate Investment Trusts, MHC REITs.
That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards, honors and numerous public recognitions for his achievements in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. Kovach is a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com, which is ranked as the runaway most read trade media in modern manufactured housing history. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s editorial views and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
