“The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay,” said the Atlanta Federal Reserve on Tuesday.
“Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,” per their statement to the Daily Business News.
“GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed,” they explained. “Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.”
Latest forecast: 4.1 percent — May 16, 2018
“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.1 percent on May 16, unchanged from May 15,” per the Atlanta Fed.
“An increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real private fixed investment growth from 5.2 percent to 5.9 percent after this morning’s new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors was largely offset by a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter real GDP growth from 0.81 percentage points to 0.72 percentage points,” per their statement to the Daily Business News.
Manufactured Housing Industry Outlook
Good economic news should be good for all housing. Manufactured housing is no exception.
But based upon recent new manufactured housing shipment trends, the current estimates for 2018 would place manufactured housing shipments around 100,000 (+/-) new HUD Code manufactured housing shipments.
HUD Code Manufactured Home Shipments, Housing Production – March 2018 Data
Given the fact that America has its best economy in well over a decade, the relative tepid recovery for manufactured housing ought to be a concern.
A Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) member told MHProNews that since the their Las Vegas event, the tepid response to the Ducker Worldwide report may explain why that plan has had relative little comment from Arlington.
Manufactured Housing Institute “Walk Out,” “Cover Up,” and Shock at their Vegas Event
The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) released a new statement on post-production related concerns, in a related report, linked below. ## (News, analysis, and commentary.)
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Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.
