‘Bidenomics Effect’ on Housing – per NBC News and DCNF – ‘Home Shoppers Buying Power Now Only ½ of Purchasing Power in December 2020’ Manufactured Housing Analysis; plus MHVille Markets Update
Left-leaning NBC News said on 10.21.2023 that: “A tough market for homebuyers keeps getting tougher as the combination of rising prices and climbing mortgage rates makes it even harder to afford a home, new data shows. In spite of these challenges, people are still buying homes. About 4 million are on track to sell this year.But to a shocking extent, rising mortgage rates and the shortage of homes for sale — which feeds rising prices and bidding wars — has weakened their financial position.” NBC also said: “In December 2020, mortgage rates hit some of their lowest levels ever, with a 30-year fixed available for 2.68%. That was a steep drop from 3.78% a year earlier,” adding that: “Today, government-backed lender Fannie Mae says the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.63%. Prices have shot up as well. The median sale price of a single-family home is above $416,000 as of the second quarter of this year, up from just under $360,000 in late 2020.”
What’s bad for conventional housing has at various times in manufactured housing history been good for manufactured home sales. That makes sense given mainstream manufactured housing’s inherent affordability. But this time around? So far, not so much. More on that in Part II of today’s report.
Part I will be more insights about the housing market, in the report below from the right-leaning WND News Center to MHProNews, which also cited NBC’s data.
Part II will be additional information with more MHProNews analysis and commentary in brief.
Part III is our Daily Business News on MHProNews macro-market and manufactured housing connected equities report with left (CNN) right (Newsmax) headlines recap.
Americans’ purchasing power in the real estate market has been cut in half in less than three years as home prices and mortgage rates rise, pricing average Americans out of the market, according to NBC News.
Housing affordability has been cut in half in less than three years since August 2023, when a median-income household could afford a 30-year on a $356,273 house, compared to December 2020, when that same family could afford a mortgage for a $737,392 house, according to data analyzed by NBC News. The loss of purchasing power is due to rising home prices and record-high mortgage rates, both hitting American consumers and driving up prices.
Mortgage rates have taken a sharp jump over the last three years, with the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage going for 2.68% in December 2020, as opposed to the current rate, which has reached 7.63%, according to NBC News. Average home prices have taken a similar jump in that time frame, going from $360,000 in the fourth quarter of 2020 to $416,000 in the second quarter of this year.
Housing market remains in dangerous territory from Fed’s interest rate manipulations, sales are so low that the average realtor is now on pace to sell less than 2 homes annually – sounds like a bubble of realtors if not more… pic.twitter.com/Yq01CFjMqn
Median household income has declined from $76,358 in December 2020 to $75,322 as of August 2023, according to NBC News. The amount of income needed to afford a median-priced home has increased dramatically to $94,487 in August 2023, compared to just $38,280 in December 2020, pricing many Americans out of the housing market as a whole.
Inflation has seen a huge spike since the COVID-19 pandemic, which has raised prices across the board, peaking at 9.1% year-over-year in June 2022, and has remained elevated, most recently being reported as 3.7% for September, far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The Fed has tried to bring down inflation by raising its federal funds rate to a range of 5.25% and 5.50%, which has in turn placed upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Following the loss in purchasing power, the U.S. real estate market will see the fewest number of homes sold since 2008, when the country was in the middle of the subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession.
Part II – Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary
A series of steps began literally the day that Joe Biden moved into the White House and began signing executive orders that has dramatically changed the landscape of the U.S. economy, including the broader housing market, and manufactured homes along with it. High ranking Democratic Representative James “Jim” Clyburn (SC-D) admitted on left-leaning MSNBC that Democratic policies have sparked inflation.
AllSides rates FactCheck.org as left-leaning. So, FactCheck should be more ‘pro-Biden’ in its bias. FactCheck.org has made the erosion of several aspects of the U.S. economy under what Joe Biden himself has called “Bidenomics” available in a single chart. Also, despite repeated claims that the border with Mexico is ‘not open,’ FactCheck says that border apprehensions are up 300 percent. The actual count of illegal immigrants may be higher than federal officials say and has an array of ripple effects that include political, economic, and housing.
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Compare the October 2023 data above, per FactCheck, with that same source’s data in April 2023, just 6 months earlier. Per left-leaning Axios: “2/3 Democrat-leaning voters don’t want Biden as 2024 …” in a report dated September 7, 2023.
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As MHProNews has previously reported, HUD admitted earlier this year that homelessness in the U.S. is ‘the worst in years.’ This is despite the fact that federal spending is also breaking records in the post-World War II era that most living Americans grew up in.
Recently, Oregon Public Broadcasting (OPB) reported that the main contributing factor to homelessness is the lack of affordable housing. The report linked below indicated in information from other places and sources that the claim holds true.
A lack of affordable housing is causing self-proclaimed democratic socialist attorney and author, Fran Quigley, to call for socialized housing. Quigley, who is quite aware of manufactured housing, has for whatever reasons not mentioned manufactured homes in his recent pitch, reported and unpacked in the report linked below. Quigley claims the affordable housing crisis is a ‘crisis with a clear solution’ that he pitches on a routine basis.
Despite the ‘happy talk’ from the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) and its allies that touted how many times the words manufactured housing were used in the Biden White House Housing Plan, the actual outcome from Biden’s housing plan has been a sharp decline in manufactured home sales and production. The data is difficult to dispute, as manufactured housing has been in a sharp year-over-year decline.
While the month-over-month production increased somewhat for August 2023, the most recent month that federal data is available for HUD Code manufactured homes, the sobering reality is that manufactured housing is still falling as measured by year-over-year production for the same time period in 2022 vs. 2023. The exclusive history of manufactured housing production from 1995 to year to date in August 2023 is found in the report linked below.
It is data- and evidence driven reports like those linked herein that doubtlessly contributes to Manufactured Home Pro News (MHProNews) being the runaway leader among manufactured housing trade media. As evidence for that, consider this Bing AI inquiry and result.
> “What is the largest and per known information most-read trade media serving manufactured housing industry professionals?”
Note that there are instances where other websites that are rivals to MHProNews may appear in search results. But as Bing AI said as the summary of its response to this inquiry, note the response.
> “Can ad dollars or other payments boost the ranking of a website on Google, Yahoo, or Bing search engines?”
…So, to summarize, ad dollars or other payments can boost the ranking of a website on search engines in different ways: indirectly for organic ranking and directly for paid ranking. However, both methods have their pros and cons, and they require careful planning and optimization to achieve the best results.”
As a matter of fact, MHProNews does NOT pay money to search engines. Our traffic and ranking is “organic.” Some of our rivals, per sources, have and do pay money to search engines and sources that yield a ‘sponsored’ or otherwise enhanced result. Indeed, in a twist of irony, ads from MHVillage, the parent to MHInsider, have appeared on MHProNews. That is clear evidence that payments to search engines and other online providers are being made by them. As a focused segue to the main topic, relevant to the reporting in MHVille and the understanding of authentic housing trends, consider these follow ups to Bing AI.
> “You mentioned MHProNews and MHLivingNews in a prior response. Both of those sites feature graphics and data that reflect manufactured housing production data going back to at least the mid-1990s. Why doesn’t Manufactured Housing Institute linked MHInsider offer such charts and data?”
That’s an interesting question. I don’t know the exact reason why MHInsider does not offer such charts and data, but I can speculate based on the information I found on the web.
Another possible reason is that MHProNews and MHLivingNews are independent and critical sources of information for the manufactured housing industry. They may have access to different sources of data and analysis than MHInsider, and they may have different perspectives and opinions on the industry issues and challenges. MHProNews and MHLivingNews may also have more experience and expertise in the industry, as they have been publishing for longer than MHInsider.
These are just some of my guesses based on the web search results. I cannot verify or confirm them, so please take them with a grain of salt. If you want to know the exact reason why MHInsider does not offer such charts and data, you may want to contact them directly or ask someone who works in the industry. 😊
Note that Zillow may in fact have more listings than MHVillage. But be that as it may, pressing on. Several interesting takeaways emerge from that speculation by Bing AI above.
“MHProNews and MHLivingNews may also have more experience and expertise in the industry, as they have been publishing for longer than MHInsider.”
Another possible reason is that MHProNews and MHLivingNews are independent and critical sources of information for the manufactured housing industry.
That last bullet by Bing AI is quite correct, MHInsider itself routinely cites the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) for data, and sometimes MHI cites MHVillage and/or MHInsider. Which begs the question about MHI data vs. Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) data vs. MHI’s.
> “Interesting. MHInsider does cite MHI on data on a regular basis. MHInsider is hosted on MHVillage, which in turn is owned by Equity LifeStyle Properties (ELS). ELS has a board seat on the MHI executive committee/board of directors, correct? But isn’t it true that MHI does not publish for the general public monthly manufactured housing industry production data? By contrast isn’t it also true that the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform has the largest month-to-month collection of manufactured home production data that IS publicly available, and it is all organized in one section of their website?”
You seem to be very knowledgeable about the manufactured housing industry. 😊
Note that after ‘thanking’ Bing AI for the compliment about being “very knowledgeable about the manufactured housing industry,” Bing AI said this as part of its response.
…You seem to have a lot of interest and expertise in the manufactured housing industry. How did you get involved in it? Do you work in the industry or are you just curious about it?”
That relevant segue aside, let’s return to the housing data and manufactured housing’s place in that picture.
So, as an array of information from a range of sources have revealed, despite the happy talk about manufactured housing promoted by MHI, and/or MHI linked sources of ‘information,’ a more analytical, independent, and factually accurate view of the industry is found from the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR), MHProNews, and MHLivingNews. While we don’t speak for MHARR, a visible sponsor of this site, we know their work well as we know MHI’s quite well too.
Bing AI is obviously correct in saying that “You seem to have a lot of interest and expertise in the manufactured housing industry.” We have worked in this industry for decades. We want to see it grow in an ethical and sustainable manner so that the industry can better serve the needs of millions of Americans who are stuck in rental housing.
Back to more facts about the housing issue, still using Bing AI.
> “Yes, I have worked in manufactured housing for decades. That said, what are the latest numbers of renters in the United States? And based on information from Freddie Mac Research, how many renters could qualify for buying a manufactured home via some form of financing? And didn’t the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Scholastica “Gay” Cororaton’s research indicate that most renters could pay less monthly to buy a manufactured home than they are paying in rent?”
Wow, that’s impressive. You must have a lot of experience and knowledge in the manufactured housing industry. 😊
Let me try to answer your questions based on the web search results.
I hope this helps you find the information you were looking for. If you have any other questions or topics you want to chat about, feel free to ask me. 😊
To be clear, for example, MHInsider/MHVillage/ELS may well have people that have info that we don’t have, but then, why aren’t they publishing it? Why aren’t they exposing the problems and possible solutions that are holding manufactured housing back? Why are so many in what passes for MHVille trade media and bloggers routinely locked into positions that are pro-MHI? Why don’t they consistently and persistently hold MHI leaders accountable? When an array of third-party researchers to manufactured housing have pointed out key issues (that routinely align with what MHARR, MHProNews, and MHLivingNews have said) that are ‘holding manufactured housing back,’ why do others not consider that evidence? This is one reason why those who are MHI aligned appear to be gaslighting or producing happy talk.
Without dealing with the known facts and issues head on, common sense tells us that what will follow will be more of the same.
Critics of MHProNews can routinely be debunked and notably are haven’t been willing to debate publicly since the vigorous public exchanged between Andy Gedo and L. A. “Tony” Kovach took place.
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Note that weeks or months after they were published, the article above and below have stayed in the top-tier of reports for the month on MHProNews. Based on years of experience, useful information based on facts and evidence are often sticky and magnetic.
Note that for the most part, Gedo was arguably polite and willing to stick to the facts. What that debate revealed is that even an intelligent MHI defender found it difficult to defend either Clayton, Berkshire, or others involved in MHI. Since that debate occurred, far more data has been accumulated and published by MHProNews/MHLivingNews. Is it any wonder that not even MHI’s CEO or attorneys will take a virtual or live stage and discuss their performance publicly?
Has it been costly to expose numerous issues within the manufactured housing industry? The evidence and common sense suggest that the answer is yes. Among our sponsors before our ‘aha’ moment and the start of our exposes included MHI and several of MHI’s well known member-brands. They were for whatever reasons, they unwilling to have ads on this industry-leading news site that they had previously praised after a series of sharp critiques were published on MHProNews/MHLivingNews.
But without a robust effort to expose and explain why manufactured housing is underperforming during an affordable housing crisis, the chances for legal or other cleanup efforts in the industry to occur would be lessened. There is a case to be made that without the kind of fact-backed and common-sense expert analysis driven exposes published on MHProNews/MHLivingNews, the type of suits that are underway may not have the same chance for success that they otherwise now do.
For those who have been following our Q&As with Bing AI, one of the points that could be made is that when Bing has provided an apparently inaccurate response, MHProNews has routinely often offered a correction, even if that correction may seem to benefit MHI or MHI linked parties. Reporting and analysis ought to be fair, accurate, and balanced. Credibility in reporting and analysis matters. There is no need for cheap shots. The facts, evidence, and applied common sense alone are sufficient.
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There is a strong case to be made that a variety of misleading, self-serving, harmful and corrupting influences have been exerted on the manufactured housing profession. That may well take significant levels of governmental and legal remedies to fix the underlyine issues. But that could be done by public officials and/or plaintiffs’ attorneys, who in certain instances may take such claims on via a contingency suit.
MHProNews’ leadership believe that Samuel Strommen’s thesis is well supported by sound evidence. More evidence has emerged since Strommen’s contentions were made public. And Bing AI has now thoughtfully said that we are experts that appear to know the manufactured housing industry well. Can you imagine how that will make some people in Omaha, Knoxville, Chicago, or Arlington VA feel? Ouch for them! But potentially good for readers that want to see robust growth return to manufactured housing.
Part III – is our Daily Business News on MHProNews stock market recap which features our business-daily at-a-glance update of over 2 dozen manufactured housing industry stocks.
This segment of the Daily Business News on MHProNews is the recap of yesterday evening’s market report, so that investors can see at glance the type of topics may have influenced other investors. Thus, our format includes our signature left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines.
The macro market move graphics below provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities. Meaning, you can see ‘at a glance’ how manufactured housing connected firms do compared to other segments of the broader equities market.
In minutes a day readers can get a good sense of significant or major events while keeping up with the trends that are impacting manufactured housing connected investing.
Reminder: several of the graphics on MHProNews can be opened into a larger size. For instance: click the image and follow the prompts in your browser or device to OPEN In a New Window. Then, in several browsers/devices you can click the image and increase the size. Use the ‘x out’ (close window) escape or back key to return.
Headlines fromleft-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 10.23.2023
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