Right-leaning CNS News recently reported that the “Cost of Shelter Largest Contributor to Inflation in May.” Part I of today’s report is CNS provided toplines on the latest broad insights into the U.S. economic, inflation, and the housing market. Part II will be additional information on conventional housing market facts and what that should tell manufactured housing pros. Part III will be the Daily Business News on MHProNews equities market and left-right headlines news recap.
Part I
Per CNS:
– Shelter cost up 8.0% YoY, accounting for 60% of CPI increase in May
– Transportation services cost up 10.2% YoY; Used car and truck prices up 4.1% MoM, down 4.2% YoY
– May CPI rose 4.0% YoY, mainly influenced by increase in shelter and used vehicle costs, as well as food prices.
Meanwhile, right-leaning Newsmax and Thompson Reuters reported on 6.20.2023 that “U.S. Housing Starts Surge 22 Percent, Most in 3 Decades.” Per a tweet by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) the more precise figure was 21.7 percent in May, which rounded up would reflect the 22 percent Newsmax and Thompson Reuters claimed.
Total U.S. housing starts jumped 21.7% in May to an annual rate of 1.631 million, 5.7% higher than in May 2022. Single-family home starts were up 18.5% last month to an annual rate of 997,000, the highest since June 2022. Home building permits grew 5.2%. #realestate #economy pic.twitter.com/6w0g1ncnmA
— NAHB 🏠 (@NAHBhome) June 20, 2023
The NAHB also tweeted the following about “builder confidence,” which is a sentiment index, but perhaps one that may be more representative of what is occurring among conventional builders than the sentiments conveyed by certain Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) members among the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA) in conjunction with the Texas Real Estate Reseach Center (TRERC) in their recent report.
Home builder confidence rose 5 points in June to a level of 55 in the NAHB/@WellsFargo Housing Market Index (HMI), marking the first time builder confidence has been in positive territory since July 2022. https://t.co/la1uiyrlIR | #realestate #homebuilding #economy pic.twitter.com/lDIyUzfJHu
— NAHB 🏠 (@NAHBhome) June 19, 2023
Per Newsmax, housing starts “on U.S. single-family homebuilding projects surged in May by the most in more than three decades, and permits for future construction also climbed, suggesting the housing market may be turning a corner after getting clobbered by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.”
Noting that the Fed skipped a rate hike this month for the first time since early 2022, their report said: “credit conditions remain in the process of tightening, and that could make it challenging for builders heavily reliant on construction and development loans to keep pace with May’s rebound in the months ahead. Indeed, economists noted that multifamily construction projects that had secured financing last year contributed to May’s gains and may level off as the year progresses as new financing becomes harder to obtain.”
Housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.631 million units last month from April’s downwardly revised 1.34 million, according to the Commerce Department on Tuesday 6.20.2023. May’s rate was the highest since April 2022, which was the highest since 2006.
“The 291,000-unit increase in starts was the most since January 1990, and the 21.7% rise was the largest percentage gain since October 2016.”
That “291,000 united increase” is roughly 3+ times the recent annual rate of manufactured home production in April 2023. April is the most recent month that data is available for new HUD manufactured housing.
“While housing starts data tend to be volatile and this figure may be revised down in coming months, the enormity of the increase suggests that builders are broadly expanding operations this summer,” Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers said.
“The strength is so far off trend that it calls sustainability into question,” Jefferies U.S. economist Thomas Simons wrote. Simons said the nearly 67% surge in starts in the Midwest may be the product of rebuilding efforts after a damaging spring tornado season. He said that is unlikely to be repeated.
The housing market has taken the biggest hit from the Fed’s fastest monetary policy tightening campaign since the 1980s, per Newsmax. But recent data have suggested the worst may have passed.
But if so, the U.S. Census Bureau shed a different light on businesses in general. Despite the rhetoric of the Biden Administration promoting competition, business formation data is in decline. Somewhat ike the Biden White House Housing Plan, rhetoric and reality often fail to meet. More housing was promised by Biden Administration officials, but instead housing went into decline. That was due in part to inflation, which a high-ranking Democratic party leader admitted before the 2022 midterms that his party’s members of Congress knew was coming. People are told one thing, but all too often in Bidenland, something else is delivered.
May 2023 Spliced Business Formations within 4 Quarters were 30,879, down 3.4% (seasonally adjusted) from April 2023.
Get more #data from our Monthly Business Formation Statistics: https://t.co/SonxtaET1t#CensusEconData pic.twitter.com/VgFY94CES3
— U.S. Census Bureau (@uscensusbureau) June 20, 2023
Thompson Reuters indicated that the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage has come down somewhat from last November’s high above 7%. It averaged 6.77% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Tightening credit could make it harder for builders to access funding for new projects, which NAHB’s chief addressed alongside the association’s data release on Monday. “(A)ccess for builder and developer loans has become more difficult to obtain over the last year, which will ultimately result in lower lot supplies as the industry tries to expand off cycle lows,” NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey said in a statement.
Permits for future construction rose 5.2% to the highest since October at 1.491 million units, led by a 27.1% surge in the Northeast. Permits for single-family projects rose 4.8% while multi-family were up 7.8%. Residential construction has been a drag on gross domestic product growth for eight quarters in a row, said Newsmax. They also pointed out that Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, said home construction is set to add to U.S. economic growth in the second half of this year.
Part II – Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis
According to the Associated Press (AP) on 6.20.2023 “New study says high housing costs, low income push Californians into homelessness.” That isn’t just true for California, but in many parts of the country where incomes are insufficient to meet the cost of buying or renting a home. MHLivingNews and MHProNews have been reporting for some years the connection between an insufficient number of affordable manufactured homes and rising homelessness.
Despite bigger federal spending, homelessness increased since Biden took office, according to figures released by HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge (D).
For those who need the reminder, the Modular Home Builders Association (MHBA) Tom Hardiman signaled early on in the Biden era that cronyism was occurring in the new Democratic Biden regime. Per Hardiman, the American dream would become the American nightmare. Isn’t that a pithy summary of what in fact has occurred?
Left leaning USA Today reported in 2022 that a growing number of young people were looking at the housing system as “a scam.” Some were at that point considering skipping voting in 2022 (millions did) because they ‘lacked faith in the system.’ What they may not have bothered to consider is the connection between corrupted Democratic policies and the obvious outcomes from corrupted governmental practices. That’s not to say that every Democrat is evil, or that every Republican is good (disclosure, at MHProNews, we are political independents). But rather that media that is often paltering and spinning in favor of Democrats are bringing them an elusive version of the truth instead of the full truth.
That problem of ‘gaslighting’ and paltering in America has become so serious that the word “gaslighting” became Merriam Webster’s word of the year in 2022.
In case that isn’t sufficiently in-your-face for someone in your circle, it is important for professionals to consider what Investopedia said just weeks ago. The Illusory Truth Effect that Investopedia spotlighted isn’t about the truth at all. It is a clever phrase meant to describe that what appears to be the truth is in fact an illusion. It is a different way of saying that Americans are being gaslighted. Paltering is just one of the methods used to peddle illusory truths. There are others described in the report below.
The corruption in America is so bad that lifelong Democrat and 2024 Democratic presidential nomination hopeful, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is calling America a kleptocracy. The latest ‘Exhibit A’ for how a rigged kleptocracy is operating is Hunter Biden. If there was any doubt that the system is rigged, and right now it is rigged in favor of Establishment Democrats, the Hunter Biden saga is it.
Ep. 5 As in most of the developing world, it’s safer to be the president’s son than his opponent. pic.twitter.com/AtRRaxYSjs
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) June 20, 2023
But that wasn’t a surprise either, or at least should not have been to those who are regular MHProNews readers who have a good memory for details. Prior to the 2020 race, MHProNews brought the insights from the Government Accountability Institute (GAI) leader Peter Schweitzer. Schweitzer is willing to expose corruption in either political party, exposing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnel just as well as then candidate Joe Biden. There is a purported pay to play influence peddling scheme involving the Biden family, which is why some on the right (and those on the left who have both insight and chutzpah) are calling them the “Biden Crime Family.”
But it isn’t just Chinese secrets. It is Ukrainian secrets, Russian, and others. The irony is that what Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans accused the 45th President Donald J. Trump of doing, is what the Bidens were doing. It is called projecting onto others what the accuser is guilty of themselves. It is a form of gaslighting or manipulation.
So, let’s be clear. The housing system is rigged. Conventional builders previously admitted that they were building at a slower clip than they were capable of doing. Why? It was a kind of hedge against the unseen market and political forces. MHProNews brought you that report when no one in the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) orbit of posturing ‘trade media’ would bring you those facts. What you aren’t being told is often as or more important than what you are being told. It is what award winning WMAL satirical pundit Chris Plante, who previously was a 17-year award winning veteran reporter for CNN, says is the media’s greatest power. The power to ignore. MHVillage’s MHInsider, the quarterly MHReview (which in fairness carries an occasional MHARR item, but is overwhelmingly carrying pro-MHI sources), the blogs of ManufacturedHomes.com and George Allen, these may bring some eye candy, but they all too rarely lay out reality in a fashion that might cause someone to wake up to what is occurring in manufactured housing and in America more broadly.
So, when it comes to finding the greatest degree of ‘the truth’ where do thinkers in MHVille go? They are here, reading what you are reading. That’s not a boast, that’s a statistical reality. Because we dare carry the reports that are too embarrassing for the others to carry because they would be banished from the next MHI-linked industry event. Want evidence? Here is a recent example. Brian Benderoff, a ‘high roller’ has accused MHI member Sun Communities CEO Gary Shiffman of being involved in an insurance scam involving himself and Dr. Billy Gonte. The Detroit News broke the story. Where are the others in manufactured housing trade media? MIA – Missing in Action. Who says? Google. It is all too rare when someone in the MHI orbit who wants to stay in the MHI orbit will embarrass one of their own.
The truth is that conventional housing should have been surpassed by manufactured housing years ago. Who said? How about people that MHI once touted or still counts among their ‘leaders’?
That quarterly report may seem like a lifetime ago. Manufactured housing was climbing. Backlogs were reported. Boor boasted that manufactured housing “as an industry” could “catch up with [conventional site] building.” It isn’t that Boor was wrong. It is that Boor appears to have fallen into the same slippery trap of paltering that others involved in MHI are engaged in too. After months of hammering away at the facts and evidence, analyst Gregory Palm finally called Boor’s firm out for the obvious. ‘Why is manufactured home industry production so weak?’ Isn’t that the obvious question? Despite the posturing by some on that question (because raising the question isn’t the same as aiming to properly and honestly answer the question), it is ONLY MHProNews, MHLivingNews and the folks at MHARR that dare raise those stubborn facts that demonstrate what the facts above from conventional housing did in this report. Namely, that while far more costly conventional housing is once again soaring, manufactured housing is still sliding. It takes massive amounts of chutzpah to stand in front of your peers, palter and gaslight with a straight face. But MHI leaders appear to be pretty good at it.
You can’t make this stuff up. It is seemingly too bizarre. Who would believe that a corporate leader, highly respected among the ranks of MHI’s ‘stars,’ would be credibly accused of doing an insurance scam involving his own mother? Stunning, but there it is. The story is so big that no one else in MHVille professional trade media (see the Google search above or linked here for evidence) dare’s mention it. Save MHProNews.
But oh, come to think of it, there was the case of a prior MHI chairman, Joseph “Joe” Stegmayer. He had a nice smile. He was soft spoken. He had a calm demeanor. Did he strike you as a snake oil salesman? Well, apparently he fell afoul of the Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) in a story that is so bizarre, you have to read their legal action’s pleadings to begin to believe it. It reads like a corporate spy novel, only it was ‘real life’ in 21st century MHVille.
Doesn’t it begin to seem like some MHI members and the word corruption seem to go hand in hand? If we were still MHI members, and we haven’t been for years, wouldn’t this type of pattern of misbehavior bother you enough to consider leaving? Stegmayer apparently cost Cavco (and himself) collectively millions. You can’t make this stuff up.
It won’t be long before MHI issues another emailed news update to their members. It will do what the others have done. It will strive to make MHI look so sophisticated and effective. They will brag about how they elevate the industry’s profile. But what they won’t do is dig into the dirty facts that reveal that they are part of the problem and not part of the solution. Who says? Sadly, the research of several attorneys who are asking (or pointedly accusing) – what is holding manufactured housing back? While the complete answer isn’t MHI, MHI is a hub for part of that pattern of corruption.
Prominent MHI members “Frank and Dave” are arguably blatantly self-serving. We don’t normally mention them among trade media because they are so apparently self-promoting and self-serving. Because of their ‘success’ they have a good following. But they are apparently involved in a scheme that is meant to consolidate a ‘fragmented’ industry into ever fewer hands. If you believe in feudalism, that was supposed to be medieval thinking, right? But feudalism is rising in America. It is rising in manufactured housing. And it is rising among specific (not all) MHI members. Here is how the late Sam Zell put it.
Is that the image that MHI members want?
Informed sources say there has been an increased ‘buzz’ among some MHVille leaders (who are also among MHProNews readers) over what to do about this platform and our incessant hammering away at the apparent corruption of numbers involved in our industry. We’ve given them the opportunity to respond, it is a standing invitation. But the facts are apparently too daunting. So, they are scheming instead of debating.
MHProNews has in its possession a new document involving MHI. It is news in the sense that it is NEW. But it is also part of this same pattern of corrupt behavior.
There are brands involved in manufactured housing that are bucking the trends. There are brands involved in manufactured housing that don’t play the same dirty games that the “MHI insiders” play. Not everyone can be a MHARR member, but independent producers should be. Non-producers need to organize, as MHARR suggested years ago. It is not too late.
Even while this platform was an MHI member, we reported on those who wanted to form an authentic independent manufactured housing association.
At some point, a lawmaker, a prosecutor, an attorney general, a gutsy group of public officials will stand up to the apparent corruption in MHVille. Frank and Dave were hit by a fine for their business practices, will it get worse than that for them? Sun Communities has been hit by AGs too, as have other MHI members.
There is only so much visible corruption that even a rigged and corrupt system will tolerate. There is bound to be a point where public officials and plaintiffs attorneys will do what some have already started, only they will do it more vigorously. It is how things work. Millions simply want to live their lives. They don’t want to be bothered by corruption in corporate, government, or in the association spheres. But outsiders and insiders alike that are tired of a rigged system will keep talking about the issues into action finally occurs. For evidence of that, see the linked reports for more.
Be not deceived. Human and divine judgment day is coming. The question is, who will get caught up in the coming judgment? Because you can’t make this stuff up. Reporting on the examples of corruption isn’t always easy, because it DOES sound odd. But the facts are there for anyone to see who is willing to look. According to our third-party site data, record numbers of you in 2023 are looking at reports like this. So, why isn’t there robust change already? Among the challenges is what has been called the Upton Sinclair effect. Some people don’t want to see what is happening because it involves their paychecks. But that too may be shifting. Because these are not ‘victimless crimes.’ See the linked reports for more, that’s enough evidence for today that while more costly conventional housing is moving ahead, while parasites in manufactured housing are causing the industry to move backwards. As site builders surged, manufactured housing was sliding. Who benefits from that fact pattern in MHVille? Consolidators. Where do those consolidators often hang out? MHI.
To the headline point, what are the geniuses at MHI doing?
Conventional housing starts are reportedly at a three-decade high. But even MHI-aligned TMHA admitted that the current manufactured home production rates are at a decade low. Perhaps the better question is, is the organization led by evil geniuses? Oh, those pesky facts… ##
Part III. Daily Business News on MHProNews Markets and Headline News Segment
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 6.20.2023
- Bud Light is ‘coming back’
- But controversy has been a ‘wake-up call’ since the brand lost its title as America’s top selling beer
- Bernie Sanders launches Senate probe into Amazon warehouse safety conditions
- YouTube removed video of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for violating vaccine misinformation policy
- The largest newspaper publisher in the US sues Google, alleging online ad monopoly
- A restaurant must pay workers $140,000 after allegedly hiring a fake priest to extract confessions of workers’ ‘sins’
- Rivian joins Ford and GM in turning to Tesla chargers
- Carlos Ghosn sues Nissan for $1 billion in Lebanon
- US home construction surged in May by the fastest pace in more than a year
- Domino’s will deliver your next pizza without an address
- Only 1% of US wineries are Black-owned. These entrepreneurs want to change that
- Crypto fugitive Do Kwon sentenced to four months in Montenegro
- Your boss has a plan to get you back to the office
- Alibaba names new chairman and CEO in major shakeup
- China cuts main interest rate as economic recovery fizzles out
- A prominent vaccine scientist says he was ‘stalked’ in front of home after Joe Rogan Twitter exchange
- Bad Bunny and music stars want a copyright case over reggaeton beats thrown out
- Why it’s becoming harder and more expensive to get homeowners insurance
- Biggest plane deal in history: Airbus clinches massive order from India’s IndiGo
- Hackers threaten to leak stolen Reddit data if company doesn’t pay $4.5 million and change controversial pricing policy
- Spotify executive Bill Simmons calls Harry and Meghan ‘grifters’ after podcast deal ends
- ‘Drinkflation’ comes for the British pint. Brewers sell weaker beer but don’t cut prices
- Italy ties China’s hands at Pirelli over fears about chip technology
- First on CNN: Ahead of World Refugee Day, dozens of big companies pledge to hire and train over 250,000 refugees in Europe
Headlines from right-of-center Newsmax 6.20.2023
- Speaker McCarthy: Hunter’s Plea Won’t Deter House Probes
- President Joe Biden with his embattled son Hunter last year. (AP)
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- Trump Classified Documents Case Gets Aug. 14 Trial Date
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- DiGenova: ‘Legal Issues,’ ‘Motions’ May Decide Case | video
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- Newsmax TV
- Ron Johnson: Hunter Plea Deal Keeps Truth From Public
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- Newsfront
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2022 was a tough year for many stocks. Unfortunately, that pattern held true for manufactured home industry (MHVille) connected stocks too. See the facts, linked above.
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Updated
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- NOTE 1: The 3rd chart above of manufactured housing connected equities includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry finance lender.
- NOTE 2: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
- NOTE 3: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm. Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.
- Note 4: some recent or related reports to the REITs, stocks, and other equities named above follow in the reports linked below.
-
2023 …Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory-built housing industry suppliers.
· LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others.
· AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here.
Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
· For expert manufactured housing business development or other professional services, click here.
· To sign up in seconds for our industry leading emailed headline news updates, click here.
- Note 1: MHVille means manufactured housing industry, MHVille also means artificially smaller manufactured housing (MH) industry,
- Note 2: Manufactured housing, production, factories, retail, dealers, manufactured home, communities, passive mobile home park investing, suppliers, brokers, finance, financial services, macro-markets, manufactured housing stocks, Manufactured Home Communities Real Estate Investment Trusts, MHC REITs.
That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards, honors and numerous public recognition for his achievements in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. Kovach is a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com, which is ranked as the runaway most read trade media in modern manufactured housing history. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s editorial views and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
