“Sometimes the best hiding place is the one that’s
in plain sight.”
– Stephenie Meyer,
per QuoteFancy.
“Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger gave a speech at Harvard that can teach employees psychological habits to avoid in order to help their careers,” said CNBC on June 27, 2017.
That reports said that “Between 1992 and 1995, Munger gave several speeches on the intersection of psychology and economics. During one speech at Harvard University, the Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman asked, “How could economics not be behavioral? If it isn’t behavioral, what the hell isit?””
That same report said that “Based off of studies from sociologists, psychologists and other researchers, Munger noted 24 psychological tendencies that he’s aware of when making business and career decisions.”
There are three broad takeaways from the CNBC video that will follow below. Using the principle of separating the wheat from the chaff, here they are.
Bias from envy and jealousy
“Envy and jealousy made, what, two out of the ten commandments?” Charlie Munger asks. Interesting that he refers to the 10 Commandments here, isn’t it?
“I’ve heard Warren say a half a dozen times, ‘It’s not greed that drives the world, but envy,’” Munger said. Hold that thought for later in the featured focus section.
Now, the point here is quite related to the headline, but is more specifically related to what’s occurring and has taken place in manufactured housing in the past 15 plus years. MHProNews has periodically said that Berkshire Hathaway’s leaders – which include Chairman Warren Buffett and Vice-Chairman Charlie Munger, but are not limited to them – deploy various strategies and tactics designed to subtly or openly influence behavior. Those strategies are logically being employed in manufactured housing, not just in other parts of their corporate conglomerate.
Accepting delusional beliefs
Munger described people creating false realities to avoid the truth. He describes a family friend who had an outstanding student-athlete son.
″[He]flew off a carrier in the North Atlantic and never came back, and his mother, who was a very sane woman, just never believed that he was dead,” Munger said.
“That’s simple psychological denial. The reality is too painful to bear, so you just distort it until it’s bearable,” Munger stated. “We all do that to some extent, and it’s a common psychological misjudgment that causes terrible problems.”
Making closed-minded judgments about people
Munger argued that people like to stick to what is familiar to them, and for better or for worse, it is what he refers to as a “liking distortion.”
He explained that this is “the tendency to especially like oneself, one’s own kind and one’s own idea structures.” This can also make someone “especially susceptible to being misled by someone liked.” If you are the type that prints a page and highlights or marks a key point, put several stars and some exclamation points next to this one.
On the other hand, Munger details disliking distortion as “the tendency not to learn appropriately from someone disliked.” The example given was to keep an open mind when communicating with someone you might dislike. While acknowledging that this can be a challenge, it can make for a better communicator and overall person.
Once again, that’s a different way of expressing the time-tested biblical notion of separating the wheat from the chaff, an ancient principle MHProNews and our MHLivingNews sister site have referenced for some years.
With that backdrop, what follows in our featured focus this evening are two videos from author and professor Dan Ariely. He explains some behavioral tips based on years of experiments in the U.S. and abroad. These are quite related to what is noted above, apply to a significant degree with what is occurring in the U.S. during this COVID19 pandemic, and are relevant to professionals in a range of disciplines, but certainly in manufactured housing.
Tonight’s featured focus will, as usual, be located beyond our traditional left-right business nightly headline review, quotable quotes, and market snapshots. The individual tracked stocks at the closing bell are located after our featured focus and related reports.
Let’s dive in.
Quotes That Shed American Social, Industry Light…
Dan Rather quote from the compelling docudrama video, Shadows of Liberty. You can stream it online.
The quote by President Obama is often agreed to by people on either side of that left-right media divide. Not only in politics, but also with respect to manufactured housing, there is a need to challenge the narrative spun by the so-called Omaha-Knoxville-Arlington axis and their allies. Not only must the prevailing narrative be challenged, it must be repeatedly challenged, because efforts at manipulation and propaganda are arguably ongoing too.
Understanding media bias is useful to sifting through possibly hidden agendas.
Danny Glover quote from the fascinating video documentary, Shadows of Liberty, you can stream it. Glover has been listed as a board member of the Warren Buffett-funded NoVo Foundation, which uses some of its donations to support journalistic efforts.
Storm clouds pass over the Vehicle Assembly Building as the SpaceX Falcon 9, with the Crew Dragon spacecraft on top of the rocket, sits on Launch Pad 39-A Wednesday, May 27, 2020, at Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla. Two astronauts will fly on the SpaceX Demo-2 mission to the International Space Station scheduled for launch Wednesday, weather permitting.
Tornado warnings delay the NASA and SpaceX launch
SpaceX and NASA will try again on Saturday for historic spaceflight
Trump threatens to ‘regulate’ social media platforms. His options may be limited
Boeing lays off 7,000 workers
Ford’s police SUVs will heat up to 133 degrees to burn the germs away
Our pandemic shopping habits are here to stay. Brands are racing to adapt
GE says goodbye to its 129-year-old light bulb business
You’ve hit a wall working remotely. Now what?
Case to extradite Huawei CFO from Canada to United States can continue, judge rules
Opinion: Why I will never let our employees go fully remote after the pandemic
CNBC anchors brawl in explosive exchange
CLAYCOMO, MO. Aug. 15, 2019 — Robots in the body shop of Kansas City Assembly Plant weld the body of Ford’s Transit. Ford has been America’s van leader for 40 years.
Another Ford plant temporarily shuts down after an employee tests positive for Covid-19
Starbucks mugs and tumblers are in hot demand from bargain hunters
ORLANDO, FL – MARCH 23: Walt Disney World remains closed to the public due to the Coronavirus threat on March 23, 2020 in Orlando, Florida. The United States has surpassed 43,000 confirmed cases of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) and the death toll climbed to at least 514.
Disney World will reopen its gates in July
MARKETS
RETAIL
CHARLESTON, SC – MAY 13: A security guard takes the temperature of a customer outside the Apple Store on May 13, 2020 in Charleston, South Carolina. Customers had their temperatures taken and were required to wear masks at the South Carolina store, as locations in Idaho, Alabama, and Alaska reopened as well following forced closures due to the coronavirus.
Security guards risk their lives by asking customers to wear masks
Walmart enters the resale market
Tuesday Morning files for bankruptcy
As you shop for the apocalypse, stores pay a price
The pandemic will make dollar stores more dominant
AROUND THE WORLD
The national flags of Australia and China are displayed before a portrait of Mao Zedong facing Tiananmen Square, during a visit by Australia's Prime Minister Julia Gillard in Beijing on April 26, 2011. The trip is Gillard's first to China, Australia's top trading partner, and comes at a time when the communist country is waging its toughest crackdown on dissent in years.
China retaliates against Australia for calling for Covid investigation
EU plans to raise $825 billion for Covid-19 relief
Chinese state TV breached UK media rules
Hong Kong’s richest man defends China security law
Japan injects another $1 trillion into its economy
SpaceX-NASA astronaut launch called off due to weather after Trump flies in
SpaceX delayed its historic astronaut launch that was set for Wednesday afternoon due to unfavorable weather conditions and will try again on Saturday.
MARKETS
Dow reclaims important milestone
Fed’s report shows how coronavirus devastated America’s economy region by region
Fed’s Bullard: Expanded unemployment pay not needed as recovery takes hold
AMAZON
Amazon questioned over charitable giving excluding conservative causes
MONEY
Tesla’s next US factory could be in one of these states
OPINION
Our economy’s got a population problem
CHECKING OUT
RETAIL
These businesses named as coronavirus ‘super-spreaders’
CHINA ATTACKS HK FREEDOMS
EXCLUSIVE
Hong Kong’s ‘one party, two systems’ rule is dead, activist warns
‘NO GUIDANCE’
POLITICS
NC county calls out embattled governor after catching flak for crowded event
FEES FLY AWAY
AIRLINES
American Airlines’ latest coronavirus travel measures include these perks
BUFFETT’S BETS
BUSINESS LEADERS
4 stocks the Oracle of Omaha is keeping his eye on
MICKEY’S BACK
DISNEY
Disney World introduces mandatory new rule for everyone over 3
STANDING FIRM
NEWS
Missouri bar owner defends packed Lake of the Ozarks pool party
Featured Focus – Where Business, Politics and Investing Can Meet
Dan Ariely (Hebrew: דן אריאלי; born April 29, 1967) is an Israeli-American professor and author. He serves as a James B. Duke Professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University. Ariely is the founder of the research institution The Center for Advanced Hindsight,[1] co-founder of the companies Kayma,[2] BEworks,[3] Timeful,[4] Genie[5] and Shapa.,[6] the Chief Behavioral Economist of Qapital and the Chief Behavioral Officer of Lemonade.[7] Ariely’s TED talks have been viewed over 15 million times.[8][9][10][11]
In the video above are found the 3 images that were turned into an infographic below. Dan Ariely argues that only the only ones who should make decisions are those who truly know. Not group 1, not group 2.
That’s interesting on several levels. One, it goes back to a notion that MHProNews promoted years ago. In business, the typical person at least in theory has more of an ability to influence their business than in stock investing. Of course, the argument could be made that COVID19 has upended that, as a notable exception to the rule.
Second, the TedX Talk has several points that line up with statements above from Berkshire’s Munger.
But it also supports the contention previously advanced by MHProNews and our MHLivingNews sister site that various head-fakes, psychological and sociological manipulations have been deployed for years against independents in the Manufactured Housing Institute and beyond.
Warren Buffett arguably hopes that people don’t learn from history, while he and his buddies have studied it with their own purposes in mind.
These further support and shed light on the quotes from Warren Buffett, above and below.
There are reasons why manufactured housing has underperformed for over 15 years. Some are subtle, some are in your face. But there is evidence that the underperformance is no accident. Rather, it was a method for building what Buffett calls the Moat. Those who think differently are arguably the victims of some of the items cited in this report. See the Kevin Clayton video interview and related interview transcript at this link here. https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/warren-buffetts-moat-per-kevin-clayton-ceo-clayton-homes-interview-transcript-video-affordable-housing-and-manufactured-homes/ Since Buffett-led Berkshire bought Clayton, the industry is actually smaller today than then. How is that possible, during an affordable housing crisis, unless they wanted it to be so?
MHProNews Bullets from the Ted Talk Video, Posted Above
700-800 million a year spent on financial literacy, but about 0.1 percent actually use the knowledge that they have gained, says Dan Ariely in the TedX talk from June 2019.
To change behavior change your environment.
Rocket to space, reduce friction give it most possible fuel to give it energy to do its task.
Free meds for a whole year if switch to generics. What percentage switched? Less than 10 percent.
Branded vs. generic, but doing something vs. doing nothing. Two things occurring. He said, let’s switch it. They switched it, lawyers happened, “it turns out this is illegal.”
Once forced to make a choice, keep going with branded or switch to generics, the vast majority switched.
Small things really matter. Friction is about asking what is the desired behavior and where is there the most friction? When desired behavior and easy behavior are not aligned, then you want to try to make the desire behavior the easy behavior. That’s the friction side of the discussion.
Now, motivation.
I’m Jewish, a little bit of guilt always works. Loss aversion, we hate losing more than we enjoy gaining.
Pre-Match vs. Post Match, both get 10 percent bonus, but the pre-match where you would ‘lose’ got better results. 20 percent plus loss aversion was just as effective as a weekly text message from their kids. Loss aversion was useful compared to its opposite, but the motivation of the children was as effective.
This study was done in the U.S. and Kenya, said Ariely. Parents were motivate by their interest in their children.
How do you take an ‘invisible’ activity, represented by the coin and insurance in the Tedx Talk, and make it visible?
Friction vs. motivation, what will work? We don’t always know, thus the experiments. Sometimes our intuitions are wrong. Try to change the friction, add motivation, and see what works. Can’t completely close the gap between what is possible and where we start, but though the proper efforts, progress can be made.
Summary of the book, “Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions is a 2008 book by Dan Ariely, in which he challenges readers’ assumptions about making decisions based on rational thought.”
According to Wikipedia, the above and below. This will be followed with additional related points from MHProNews.
Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions is a 2008 book by Dan Ariely, in which he challenges readers’ assumptions about making decisions based on rational thought. Ariely explains, “My goal, by the end of this book, is to help you fundamentally rethink what makes you and the people around you tick. I hope to lead you there by presenting a wide range of scientific experiments, findings, and anecdotes that are in many cases quite amusing. Once you see how systematic certain mistakes are—how we repeat them again and again—I think you will begin to learn how to avoid some of them”.[1]
Chapter summary
Ariely discusses many modes of thinking and situations that may skew the traditional rational choice theory. There are 15 chapters in total, and the following outline the main points.
The Truth about Relativity
In chapter 1, Ariely describes the ways in which people frequently regard their environment in terms of their relation to others; it is the way that the human brain is wired. People not only compare things, but also compare things that are easily comparable.[2] For example, if given the following options for a honeymoon – Paris (with free breakfast), Rome (with free breakfast), and Rome (no breakfast included), most people would probably choose Rome with the free breakfast. The rationale is that it is easier to compare the two options for Rome than it is to compare Paris and Rome. Ariely also explains the role of the decoy effect (or asymmetric dominance effect) in the decision process. The decoy effect is the phenomenon whereby consumers will tend to have a specific change in preference between two options when also presented with a third option that is asymmetrically dominated. This effect is the “secret agent” in many decisions. In the example with the honeymoon options, Rome without free breakfast is the decoy. (It makes Rome with breakfast look superior to Rome without breakfast. Comparing Rome and Paris is difficult, so the easy comparison of Rome makes it more likely to choose Rome over Paris.) It makes Paris look inferior when compared to Rome with the free breakfast. Relativity helps people make decisions but it can also make them miserable. People compare their lives to those of others, leading to jealousy and inferiority. Ariely finishes the chapter by saying “the more we have, the more we want”[3] and his suggested cure is to break the cycle of relativity. To break the cycle, people can control what goes on around them. The focus on smaller “circles” can boost relative happiness, as can changing this focus from narrow to broad. When considering upgrading a phone, the consumer could think about what else they could buy with the money they would spend on the upgrade.
The chapter also explores the independence of irrelevant alternatives and the idea of menu dependence.
The Fallacy of Supply and Demand
See also: Shortage economy, Soviet-type economic planning, and Project Cybersyn
In chapter 2, consumers purchase items based on value, quality or availability – often on all three. The methods of appointing a value to an object with no previous value, like the Tahitian black pearl, is susceptible to irrational pricing. A value can be as easily (arbitrarily) assigned as by having a fancy ad with “equally” precious items and a high price tag in a window of a store on Fifth Avenue. When consumers buy a product at a certain price, they become “anchored” to that price, i.e. they associate the initial price with the same product over a period of time. An anchor price of a certain object, say a plasma television, will affect the way they perceive the value of all plasma televisions henceforth. Other prices will seem low or high in relation to the original anchor. In other words, decisions about future LCD television purchases become coherent after an initial price has been established in the consumer’s mind. A person’s self value for services rendered can also be affected by anchor prices; one can irrationally price his/her abilities or services based on an anchor price proposed. Using the concepts of anchor price and arbitrary coherence, Ariely challenges the theory of supply and demand. He states that demand, the determinant of market prices, can be easily manipulated. Furthermore, supply and demand are dependent on each other (manufacturer’s suggested retail prices affect consumers’ willingness to pay). Finally, the author claims that the relationships between supply and demand are based on memory rather than on preferences.[4]
The Cost of Zero Cost
In chapter 3, Ariely explains how humans react to the words “free” and “zero”. Humans make decisions without rationalizing the outcomes of their choices. To illustrate this point, Ariely conducted multiple experiments. The outcome was consistent: when faced with multiple choices, the free option was commonly chosen. With the opportunity to receive something for free, the actual value of the product or service is no longer considered. Ariely claims, “Most transactions have an upside and a downside, but when something is FREE! we forget the downside. FREE! gives us such an emotional charge that we perceive what is being offered as immensely more valuable than it really is.”[5]
Ariely’s concept of “FREE!” applies not only to monetary and quantitative costs, but also to time. We forgo some of our time when we wait in line for free popcorn or to enter a museum on a free-entrance day. We could have been doing something else at that time. Ultimately, he demonstrates how such a simple concept can be used to drive business and social policy. For example, to reduce health cost, companies could offer free regular checks. Employees would be more willing to get them at zero cost rather than paying some amount of money. Ariely recommends the consideration of the net benefits of the choices we make regarding both preference and money. Perhaps we would get the better deal and even save money if we did not react to free the way we do.
Being Paid vs. A Friendly Favor
In chapters 4 and 5, Ariely speaks in great detail of the differences between social norms—which include friendly requests with instant payback not being required—and market norms—which account for wages, prices, rents, cost benefits, and repayment being essential.
He also explains how combining the two can create troubling situations. The author comments that people are happy to do things occasionally when they are not paid for them. In fact there are some situations in which work output is negatively affected by payment of small amounts of money. Tests showed that work done as a “favor” sometimes produced much better results than work paid for.
For example, some lawyers were asked by AARP to provide needy retirees with services at a cost of about $30. The lawyers did not accept the offer. However, when asked to offer services at no cost, they agreed. Experiments also showed that offering a small gift would not offend anybody (the gift falls into social norms), but mentioning the monetary value of the gifts invokes market norms.
Ariely talks about how social norms are making their way into the market norms. To illustrate, State Farm’s slogan, “Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there,” provides an example where companies are trying to connect with people on a social level in order to gain trust and allow the customer to overlook minor infractions. The author concludes that “money, as it turns out, is the most expensive way to motivate people. Social norms are not only cheaper, but often more effective as well.”[6]
Emotion in Decision Making
In chapter 6, Ariely collaborated with close friend George Loewenstein, a professor of economics and psychology at Carnegie Mellon University, to test the influence of arousal on decision making in high-emotion situations. Ariely and Loewenstein chose to test the effects of sexual arousal on decision-making in college-aged men at University of California, Berkeley. By using computers to stimulate sexual arousal, they determined that in a stimulated state, the young men were more likely to undergo an action that they would not normally consider. Using the data, Ariely argues that other high-emotion situations such as anger, frustration, and hunger have the potential to trigger similar effects on decision-making. In such situations our behavior is fully controlled by emotions. We are not the people we thought we were. No matter how much experience we have we make irrational decisions every time we are under the influence of arousal. Furthermore, he presents ideas to improve our decision-making abilities in other emotion-provoking situations such as safe sex, safe driving, and making other life decisions. For example, Ariely proposes an OnStar system that could potentially lower the number of car accidents in teenagers by performing tasks such as changing the car’s temperature or dialing the teenager’s mother when the car exceeds a set speed.
The Problem of Procrastination and Self-control
In chapter 7, over the last decade Americans have shown surprisingly little self-control. Ariely blames this lack of self-control on people’s two states in which they make their judgments—cool state and hot state. In our cool state we make rational long-term decisions, whereas in our hot state we give in to immediate gratification and put off our decisions made in the cool state.
Ariely describes putting off these goals for immediate gratification as procrastination.[7] With proper motivators such as deadlines and penalties, people are more willing to meet deadlines or long-term goals. The author states that based on his experience with his students, deadlines set by authority figures such as teachers and supervisors make us start working on a specific task earlier. If we set the deadlines ourselves, we might not perform well. Moreover, we will not start making any progress towards the completion of the task until the deadline approaches.
Ariely also applies his theories to other aspects in life such as health care and savings. Having to pay a deposit at the doctor’s office would make people more likely not to procrastinate and show up for their appointments. He goes on to say that if more consequences were put into effect, people would be more likely to meet their goals, appointments, deadlines, etc. made in a cool state. Ariely also elaborates on his idea of self-control credit cards. When applying for such a card, users can decide how much they can spend in each category and what would happen when they exceed their limit.
The High Price of Ownership
In chapter 8, Ariely discusses how we overvalue what we have, and why we make irrational decisions about ownership. The idea of ownership makes us perceive the value of an object to be much higher if we own the object. This illustrates the phenomenon of the endowment effect—placing a higher value on property once possession has been assigned. The author begins the chapter by using an example of how a lottery for highly sought-after Duke University basketball tickets inflates students’ sense of value for the tickets. Students who actually received the tickets valued them ten times more than the students who did not receive them.
Ariely gives three reasons why we do not always think rationally when it comes to our possessions:
Ownership is such a big part of our society that we tend to focus on what we may lose rather than on what we may gain.
The connection we feel to the things we own makes it difficult for us to dispose of them.
We assume that people will see the transaction through our eyes.
Ariely also lists the “peculiarities” of ownership as he calls them. One of them is that the harder we work on something, the more we start feeling about them as our own. Take assembling a piece of furniture as an example. Another peculiarity is that sometimes, the sense of ownership comes before the actual ownership, e.g. online auctions. To avoid the endowment effect, Ariely suggests that we create a barrier between ourselves and the material things we are tempted by daily.
The Effect of Expectations
In chapter 9, Ariely and other colleagues conducted a series of experiments to determine whether previous knowledge can change an actual sensory experience. One of the experiments was conducted in the Muddy Charles, one of the MIT’s pubs. Students visiting the pub tasted two types of beer — Budweiser and the MIT Brew (which contains balsamic vinegar).
In the “blind test” the majority preferred the altered brew, but when they were told in advance that it was vinegar-laced, they chose the original Budweiser. Another group of students was made aware of the vinegar content immediately after tasting both kinds of drinks. However, they still reported that they preferred it, proving that knowledge after the experience does not affect our sensory perceptions.
Ariely also states that expectations shape stereotypes. Stereotypes provide us with knowledge before the actual experience and thus influence our perceptions. The author describes an experiment in which an objective math exam was administered to two groups of Asian-American women. Before taking the test, the women from the first group were asked questions regarding gender-related issues, whereas the second group had to answer questions about race-related issues. The second group did better than the first one and met the expectation that Asians are good at math.
Ariely concludes, “Expectations can influence nearly every aspect in one’s life.”[7] He presents an argument that expectations can override our senses, partially blinding us from the truth.
The Power of Price
In chapter 10, Ariely started out with a medical procedure called internal mammary artery ligation for chest pain. The interesting twist is when a cardiologist decided to test the efficacy of this procedure by performing a placebo procedure. The result showed that the placebo is equally effective, thereby disputing the effectiveness of the original surgery. This example is one of many that illustrate the power of placebo in medical science.
While the effect of placebo has been knowingly and unknowingly practiced for millennia, the interesting observation Ariely and his collaborators made was that prices of the prescribed medicine can be used as a placebo as well. This chapter ended with a complex and moral question as to whether or not the placebo effect in medicine should be studied more closely or even eliminated systematically.
Reception
In a New York Times review, David Berreby said “Predictably Irrational is a far more revolutionary book than its unthreatening manner lets on. It’s a concise summary of why today’s social science increasingly treats the markets-know-best model as a fairy tale.”[8]
Manufactured Housing Industry Investments Connected Closing Equities Tickers
Some of these firms invest in manufactured housing, or are otherwise connected, but may do other forms of investing or business activities too.
NOTE: The chart below includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry lender
NOTE: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
Spring 2020… Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory built housing industry suppliers. · LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others. · AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here. Enjoy these ‘blast from the past’ comments. MHProNews. MHProNews – previously a.k.a. MHMSM.com – has celebrated our tenth anniversary and is in year 11 of publishing.
Learn more about our evolutionary journey as the industry’s leading trade media, at the report linked below.
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MHProNews traveled to Washington, D.C. on the week of 12.2.2019 so Tony could present to the FHFA Listening Session and meet with others in the Capitol during the week regarding industry issues.
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHLivingNews.com. Tony earned a journalism scholarship and earned numerous awards in history and in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position, and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters. http://latonykovach.com Connect on LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/latonykovach AEI Flash Housing Market Indicators
