It is fair to say that surveys and economic projections are not always as advertised.  That ‘stating the obvious’ disclaimer noted, Fannie Mae has provided MHProNews two distinct but interrelated news releases on the economy and the U.S. housing market.

The first part of this evening’s market report is Fannie Mae’s U.S. economic forecast from late February, the featured focus is more housing specific.

That March 8, 2021 report is entitled “Consumer Sentiment on Housing Dips Slightly Despite Growing Labor Market Optimism.”

Both reports are packed with data. That data – properly understood – should point to opportunities for affordable housing.

 

U.S. Economy Expected to Expand at 6.7 Percent Clip in 2021

Fiscal Stimulus, Successful Vaccine Deployment Likely to Boost Growth but Also Pose Inflationary Risk

WASHINGTON, DC – The U.S. economy is expected to grow 6.7 percent in 2021, an improvement not only from last year’s 2.5 percent contraction but up, too, compared to last month’s forecast of 5.3 percent, according to the February 2021 commentary from the Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The latest forecast upgrade of full-year 2021 real GDP growth reflects greater-than-expected consumer spending in the winter months, slowing COVID-19 case rates and hospitalizations, and the likelihood of an impending fiscal stimulus package. However, the ESR Group notes that some of the expected growth quickening stems from a pull-forward of growth that was previously expected to take place in 2022; subsequently, its forecast of full-year growth in 2022 decreased 0.8 percentage points this month to 2.8 percent. The ESR Group’s updated forecast also highlights greater uncertainty and downside risks, including stronger inflation and higher interest rates, as well as potentially weaker growth if COVID-related restrictions persist beyond the spring.

While housing is still expected to moderate in the new year from its unsustainably high pace in the second half of 2020, the ESR Group did upwardly revise its 2021 sales forecast on new data suggesting that the expected cooling will occur over a longer time frame than previously anticipated. Annual single-family starts were also upgraded to 18.6 percent growth in 2021, up from last month’s forecast of 12.5 percent. Combined with continued strength in refinances and an otherwise upgraded housing forecast, the ESR Group projects mortgage originations in 2021 to hit $4.1 trillion, a $0.2 trillion improvement from its prior forecast.

“If 2020 was the year of the virus, then 2021 will more than likely be the year of the vaccine,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Whether the vaccines are effective, including with the new virus strains, and how broadly and timely they can be distributed remain key questions; our forecast assumes such efficacy and that they’ll be widely administered by summer. Further, the recent upward creep of Treasury rates suggests that financial markets currently expect the same.”

“Consumer interest in locking-in historically low mortgage rates helped drive continued high volumes of refinancing and aggressive levels of homebuying,” Duncan continued. “We believe that this will continue in 2021. We assume that the proposed fiscal stimulus of around $1.7 trillion will be passed in mid-March, and that growth will accelerate sharply beginning in the second quarter.”

“However, with the Fed committed to low rates for the foreseeable future, a recovering economy, and already the highest level of debt-funded stimulus in place since World War II, the proposed additional stimulus heightens the risk of rising inflation and interest rates, as well as a potential boom-and-bust scenario. Very strong growth in the second half of 2021 could push inflation, and thereby rates, up significantly in 2022, thus invoking a Fed response of tightening and a significant deceleration later in 2022. This is not our base case scenario, but we see it as a significant risk moving forward.”

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There are several takeaways from the above, but perhaps one of the more important top lines featured in the headline is: “housing is still expected to moderate in the new year from its unsustainably high pace in the second half of 2020…” That should be an open-door invitation for factory home builders, especially manufactured home producers.

 

But as our deep dive report today made clear, there are numerous indicators that Clayton has been and continues to arguably subvert manufactured housing as part of a Buffett-moat-building scheme. The Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) – which the evidence reflects in dominated by Berkshire and their allies – is mute on this and more.

That sobering point noted, let’s press on to our featured focus tonight.

For our growing numbers of new readers, as well as a reminder to those returning daily, a few quick evening/nightly market report insights.

• Every business evening, MHProNews provides a bullet list of left-right news headlines from CNN and in a matter of moments, savvy professionals can see at a glance news headlines and views across the political spectrum.
• This is a time saving and insightful way to quickly grab insights from across the left-right divide for those who are hooked on this market-nightly feature.
• Our featured focus follows the quotable quotes, periodic political cartoons, those left-right headlines, and two of our three market summary graphics as reported at the closing bell.
• After the featured focus, are some recent/related report links and the third manufactured housing focused stock equities graphic. There are some additional items that include the free signup for the manufactured housing industry’s x2 weekly emailed news to the most-read trade publication in our profession:

On a day that saw manufactured home connected equities broadly rise, let’s press ahead toward the insights from a veteran who believes that more is possible with the correct thinking and concerted action.

 

Quotes That Shed Light – Industry, American, Social, National Issues

 

Headlines from left-of-center CNN

• DOW SURGES
• In this photo provided by the New York Stock Exchange, traders Robert Charmak and John Panin, foreground left and right, work on the floor, Friday, March 5, 2021, in New York. Stocks are swerving through another rocky ride Friday, as investors struggle to figure out what an encouraging report on the economy and the recent march higher for bond yields should mean for the market.
• Wall Street cheers Biden’s Covid-19 relief package, which aims to bolster the US economy
• Tech stocks are bearing the brunt of the recent sell-off. Here’s why
• Exclusive: Wells Fargo is joining the green wave sweeping finance
• It’s been a year since markets crashed. Another reckoning may be looming
• Elon Musk lost $27 billion last week
• Bloopers, snafus and viral goofs: Inside pandemic-era TV
• Tesla is about to unveil an updated Cybertruck, Elon Musk says
• Apple is discontinuing the iMac Pro
• Billionaire MacKenzie Scott remarries
• Cameron Diaz wants to ship you her wine
• Why Oprah’s interview with Meghan and Harry drew a staggering 17 million viewers
• Being owned by a billionaire is a struggling newsroom’s dream. But it can turn into a nightmare
• The US pandemic at one year: Looking back at the week everything changed, and looking forward
• Meghan, Duchess of Sussex and Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex visit District 6 Museum on September 23, 2019 in Cape Town, South Africa. District 6 is a former inner-city residential area in Cape Town, where freed slaves, artisans, immigrants, merchants and the Cape Malay community lived. For over a hundred years, different communities and races lived side by side, and the District became known for its vibrant culture, music and food. In 1966, the government declared District 6 a whites-only area, and over 60,000 residents were forcibly removed and relocated to the Cape Flats Township.
• One reason Meghan suffered racist UK coverage: The media is too White
• How the pandemic transformed some of America’s top female execs
• Demonstrators wearing face masks and holding signs take part in a rally to raise awareness of anti-Asian violence, near Chinatown in Los Angeles, California, on February 20, 2021. – The rally was organized in response to last month’s fatal assault of Vicha Ratanapakdee, an 84-year-old immigrant from Thailand, in San Francisco.
• Old Navy exec: I’m done ignoring the racism I’ve faced as an Asian American
• BUY VS RENT
• A bicyclist rides by a row of homes on February 18, 2014 in San Francisco, California. According to a report by mortgage resource site HSH.com, an annual salary of $115,510 is needed to purchase a house in San Francisco where the median home price is $682,410. The report included 25 of the nations largest metropolitan cities with Cleveland, Ohio being the cheapest with a needed salary of $19,435 to purchase a home.
• Should you rent or buy a home? Ask yourself these 3 questions
• How to buy a home with no down payment
• Mortgage rates are climbing. Don’t panic
• Should I refinance my mortgage?
• How much house can I afford?
• SHOP WITHIN A SHOP
• Why Target and Nordstrom are jumping on this trend to pull in shoppers
• Nordstrom and fitness startup partner on mini shops
• Sephora is opening up mini shops inside Kohl’s stores
• Apple mini stores are coming to some Targets
• Ulta is opening up small shops inside Targets

Headlines from right-of-center Newsmax

• NY Assembly Republicans to Roll Out Cuomo Impeachment Resolution
• The Biden Presidency
• Toomey: Stimulus Bill a ‘Litany of Outrageous Items’
• 12 States Sue Biden Administration Over Climate Executive Order
• GOP Study Committee: Biden’s ‘Radical’ Border Policies Causing ‘Crisis’
• Biden Set For First Prime-Time Address Thursday
• Rubio Blasts Biden State Nominee Over ‘Radical Position on Abortion’
• Biden Expects ‘Large Majority to Receive Checks by End of Month’
• Biden Orders Creation of Gender Policy Council
• Manchin: GOP Must Be Part Of Infrastructure Plan Talks
• Newsmax TV: ‘Cancel Culture War’
• ‘Greg Kelly Reports’ Focuses on ‘Cancel Culture’
• Dershowitz: Why Stop With Dr. Seuss?
• Matt Gaetz to Newsmax TV: Cancel Culture About Causing Self-Censorship
• Seuss as Cancel Culture Target Should Horrify Us All
• Devin Nunes to Newsmax TV: Cancel Culture Would Make Mao Proud
• New York Public Library Won’t Cancel Dr. Seuss Books Despite Racist Imagery
• Newsfront
• George Floyd Death Trial Delayed
• The trial of former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin for the death of George Floyd was delayed until at least Tuesday morning as the judge contended with a last-minute order by a higher court to reconsider adding an additional murder charge…
• GOP Seeks Probe of Lockout Impact on Special Needs
• Four GOP House members Monday called for a bipartisan investigation
• Nasdaq Hits Correction, Dow Advances as Stimulus Bill Nears Finish Line
• Technology-related shares sold off on Monday in a big downturn that
• The Proof That US Will Dominate China This Century
• The U.S. will achieve dominance over China before the end of the
• CDC: Fully-Vaccinated People Can Gather Without Masks
• Fully-vaccinated Americans can gather with other vaccinated people
• Related
• Book: Diplomats Warned About Wuhan Lab 2 Years Before Outbreak
• Top Health Experts Predict Another US COVID-19 Surge
• Arkansas Gov. Says Public Health Advice Shouldn’t Be Sole Guidance
• Quarter of Migrants Dumped in Texas Border Town Have COVID-19
• US Supreme Court Rejects Last of Trump’s Election Appeals
• The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday disposed of the last of three cases
• US Presents Warring Afghan Sides With Draft Peace Agreement
• Frustrated by a stalled peace process and escalating violence, the
• Biden Set to Make First Primetime Address Thursday
• President Joe Biden is set to make his first primetime TV address
• Defiant Gov. Andrew Cuomo Vows Not to Resign as Pressure Mounts
• Embattled but defiant, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo vowed Monday there
• Related
• Tenney: Cuomo Facing ‘Inevitable Impeachment,’ Should Resign
• Top New York Lawmaker Calls for Gov. Cuomo’s Resignation
• Schumer Backs Inquiry After More Women Accuse Cuomo of Sex Misconduct
• Another Ex-Aide Calls Cuomo’s Office Conduct Inappropriate
• 12 States Sue Biden Administration Over Climate Executive Order
• The Biden administration is reportedly coming under legal fire over a
• Goldman Sachs Predicts Jobless Rate Will Fall to 4.1 Percent
• The U.S. is on course for an employment boom this year once pandemic
• Rubio Blasts Biden State Nominee Over ‘Radical Position on Abortion’
• Marco Rubio, R-Fla., on Monday came out firmly against President
• GOP Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri Won’t Run for Reelection
• Republican Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri will not seek a third term
• NYC Mayor de Blasio ‘Feeling Bold’ on Run for Governor
• Amid tension and investigations into Gov. Andrew Cuomo, New York City
• Dershowitz: Why Stop With Dr. Seuss?
• Trump Tells 3 GOP Groups to Stop Using Him to Raise Money
• Former President Donald Trump is demanding that three main Republican
• Is McConnell Preparing To Exit Senate?
• For days, news in Kentucky has been dominated by reports that…
• Harvard Professor Claims Japan’s ‘Comfort Women’ Were Willing Prostitutes
• A Harvard University professor has ignited an international uproar
• Trump Makes First Post-Presidency Return to NYC
• Former President Donald Trump now calls Florida’s Mar-a-Lago
• Meghan and Harry Interview with Oprah Lays Bare Royal Rift
• Pence to Give 1st Speech Since Leaving Office
• Organizers of Newsom Recall Effort Say They Have Enough Signatures
• Unions Set for Strikes as Myanmar Crackdown Intensifies
• Mike Gallagher Wants Biden Reversal on Keystone XL Pipeline
• Lindsey Graham: ‘Out Of Control’ Democrats Are ‘Reshaping America’
• Lindsey Graham: ‘Out Of Control’ Democrats Are ‘Reshaping America’
• Finance
• Janet Yellen: COVID Bill Will Return Labor Market by 2022
• The $1.9 trillion stimulus package that is expected to pass this week will help the country’s labor market recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2022, or two years sooner than most experts have expected, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday…
• Paul: How the Fed Is Enabling a Destructive Spending Agenda
• Dick Durbin Will Save the Little Guy – No Matter How Many Get Squashed by His Policies
• Report: Panasonic to Buy Blue Yonder for $6.5B; Largest Deal Since 2011
• Education Group Pearson Targets Consumers Directly With New Strategy
• Health
• Top Health Experts Predict Another US COVID-19 Surge
• Experts warn that the U.S. is in “the eye of a hurricane” and can expect another strong surge of COVID-19 cases as variants spread across the country. They warned that the virus variant from the U.K. is particularly ominous as it is more contagious…
• Dog Heart Damage Linked to Diet
• What You Need to Know About Food Poisoning
• Study: Seniors Not Getting Needed Hearing Checks
• Common Symptoms That Signal Parkinson’s Disease

Market Indicator Closing Summaries – Yahoo Finance Closing Tickers on MHProNews…

Featured Focus –
Where Business, Politics and Investing Can Meet

 

Tonight’s featured focus provides more data that looks promising, but also begs several questions. Why is the Congress and Biden-Harris pushing a 1.9 trillion dollar bill when the underlying economy per several reports is poised to grow? Or, why is affordable manufactured housing – which on paper enjoys the ability to preempt local zoning – being allowed to suffer?

 

Consumer Sentiment on Housing Dips Slightly Despite Growing Labor Market Optimism

 

Eighty-Two Percent of Consumers Report Not Being Concerned About Losing Their Job in Next 12 Months WASHINGTON, DC – March 8, 2021 – The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased in February by 1.2 points to 76.5. Four of the HPSI’s six components fell month over month, including most notably the homebuying conditions and household income components. Offsetting much of that decline, however, was increased optimism regarding job security, with consumers reporting a significantly more positive view of the labor market compared to January. Year over year, the HPSI is down 16.0 points. “As we expected, the HPSI remained relatively flat in February, but underlying data indicate growing job-related optimism among consumers, especially among lower-income and renter groups,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “With the growing likelihood that lockdown restrictions will continue easing as vaccination efforts ramp up, and with warmer weather on the horizon and another round of fiscal stimulus pending, these two segments of consumers may have good reason to feel more positive about the labor market. This optimism appears to be well-placed, too, given Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed the strongest net gain in payroll employment since October, although the unemployment rate remains quite high by historical standards. However, other components of the index remain well below pre-pandemic levels, so we believe there may still be room for improvement in housing and economic attitudes in the coming months, depending in part on the future path of mortgage rates.” Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in February by 1.2 points to 76.5. The HPSI is down 16.0 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information. Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 52% to 48%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 37% to 43%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 10 percentage points month over month. Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from 57% to 55%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell increased from 33% to 35%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell decreased 4 percentage points month over month. Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased from 41% to 47%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from 17% to 18%. The share who think home prices will stay the same decreased from 34% to 29%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say home prices will go up increased 5 percentage points month over month. Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 9% to 8%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 45% to 47%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from 37% to 38%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased 3 percentage points month over month. Job Concerns: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months increased from 75% to 82%, while the percentage who say they are concerned decreased from 24% to 17%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 14 percentage points month over month. Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 21% to 17%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 14% to 19%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from 64% to 61%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 9 percentage points month over month. To learn more about Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey consumer attitude measures, please click here.

Related, Recent, and ‘Read-Hot’ Reports

Manufactured Housing Industry Investments Connected Closing Equities Tickers

Some of these firms invest in manufactured housing, or are otherwise connected, but may do other forms of investing or business activities too.

• • • • • • • • • NOTE: The chart below includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry lender
                • NOTE: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
                • NOTE: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of  the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm.  Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.

Winter 2021…

Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21^st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory built housing industry suppliers.
· LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others.
· AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here.
Enjoy these ‘blast from the past’ comments.

MHProNews. MHProNews – previously a.k.a. MHMSM.com – has celebrated our 11th year of publishing, and is starting our 12the year of serving the industry as the runaway most-read trade media.

Sample Kudos over the years…

 

It is now 11+ years and counting…and Williams, who praised our accuracy and other services to manufactured housing for years, then said this.

Learn more about our evolutionary journey as the industry’s leading trade media, at the report linked below.

· For expert manufactured housing business development or other professional services, click here.
· To sign up in seconds for our industry leading emailed headline news updates, click here.

Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.

That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)

By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHLivingNews.com.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship and earned numerous awards in history and in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position, and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.

LATonyKovach.