David Jones is the Communications Director and Senior Editor for the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC). Jones and TRERC provided MHProNews with their latest press release on 10.4.2022 what is dubbed the “Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS)” which routinely includes information from the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA). The information once more included a statement, per TRERC, that “Current economic outlook worsened for the fifth consecutive month across Texas’ manufactured housing industry, according to the latest Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS), as respondents unanimously noted a decline in business activity.”
The introduction of the press release below also said “Production pulled back again after adjusting in July and August due to decreased sales and shipments for both Texas and out-of-state orders. Details in attached news release.”
MHProNews probed a similar statement last month in a reported dated 9.8.2022.
In that report, an emailed follow up to TRERC’s Jones said and asked the following.
I’d like your on or off the record feedback on the following. This is per IBTS from each of the relevant months (April-July 2022) for the production for the State of Texas.
| Production | |||||
| State | SW | MW | Total | Floors | |
| Apr-22 | Texas | 1,226 | 1,106 | 2,332 | 3,450 |
| May-22 | Texas | 1,219 | 1,097 | 2,316 | 3,424 |
| Jun-22 | Texas | 1,341 | 1,201 | 2,542 | 3,759 |
| Jul-22 | Texas | 1,015 | 810 | 1,825 | 2,645 |
While July certainly looks like a sharp dip, my reading of the data above is that June was an increase over May. If so, am I miss reading part of your release? How can it be two months of contraction, when June was up over May?
It may be that I’m tired or something. Please advise, as we like to make sure our readers have the facts straight. Thank you.
Tony …”
Jones reached out to a researcher involved in the monthly report. That person, off the record, via TRERC’s Jones stated the following.
Moreover, our product is a series of sentiment indices that may not always match the hard data. One example of this is that we tell manufacturers to compare production month to month after adjusting for seasonal factors (the latter of which may be interpreted differently by each respondent).
Thanks, Tony. Harold is being kept in the loop.
David …”
MHProNews reached out again to Jones, who responded that he would follow up because he expected our inquiry. That said, despite a follow up, for whatever reason(s), no response was forthcoming.
With that backdrop is their report which will be followed by Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and commentary in brief. The highlighting below is added by MHProNews, but the text from TRERC remains as provided.
Texas’ manufactured-housing correction continues as uncertainty looms
COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Current economic outlook worsened for the fifth consecutive month across Texas’ manufactured housing industry, according to the latest Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS), as respondents unanimously noted a decline in business activity. Production pulled back again after adjusting in July and August due to decreased sales and shipments for both Texas and out-of-state orders. “We enjoyed historically low interest rates for quite some time, but those days look to be over for the foreseeable future,” said Dr. Harold Hunt, research economist for the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC). “The Federal Reserve has increased the federal funds rate this year from zero to 3 percent in their attempt to tame inflation.”
Higher interest rates shocked the demand for manufactured housing, allowing upstream operations to catch up after widespread input shortages and bottlenecks during the pandemic recovery. The TMHS supply-chain disruptions index decreased for the second straight month, and prices for inputs are falling. Survey respondents indicated payroll reductions and reduced workweeks, but decreased demand for labor did not drag down wages and salaries.
“Wage growth has contributed to inflation, and the Fed is keeping a close eye on how the labor market reacts to rate hikes. Most forecasts are predicting rates to top out around 4.5 percent in mid-2023, which means an even higher cost of capital for the manufactured housing industry. Mortgage rates should be expected to move higher as well, further impacting buyer affordability,” said Hunt.
“Rising interest rates coupled with the run up in manufacturers’ costs that peaked in June have certainly lowered foot traffic on retail lots across the state,” according to Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. “The fundamental need for affordable housing, however, hasn’t changed. As retailers work their way through existing inventory, they will receive better pricing on new orders moving forward.”
The TMHS price index for finished homes decreased for the fourth consecutive month and is expected to fall further over the next six months.
“Invoice-cost reductions should help counteract higher inventory and mortgage finance rates to some extent, but those rates will continue to rise with every Fed increase,” said Ripperda.
Despite activity stalling over the past two quarters, manufacturers hinted at a stabilization in early 2023. The TMHS expectations indices for company outlook and business activity ticked positive for the first time since April, but heightened uncertainty still surrounds the industry and the economy more broadly. …##
Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary
“Current economic outlook worsened for the fifth consecutive month across Texas’ manufactured housing industry, according to the latest Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS), as respondents unanimously noted a decline in business activity” said the TRERC release above. But once more for emphasis, the prior inquiry for September’s report for data through July said the following.
| Production | |||||
| State | SW (Single Section) | MW (Multi-Section) | Total (MH Units) | Floors | |
| Apr-22 | Texas | 1,226 | 1,106 | 2,332 | 3,450 |
| May-22 | Texas | 1,219 | 1,097 | 2,316 | 3,424 |
| Jun-22 | Texas | 1,341 | 1,201 | 2,542 | 3,759 |
| Jul-22 | Texas | 1,015 | 810 | 1,825 | 2,645 |
To set the stage for this report, our Sunday report and recap provided the official state-by-state data, which of course includes the #1 production and shipments state of Texas.
From that report above the following three months from #1 Texas for production and shipments are as follows. Note, there is some overlap between these facts and the months previously cited above from Texas.
| Shipments |
|
||||
| SS | MS | Floors | Total | ||
| Texas | 1,015 | 1,083 | 2,098 | 3,197 | June |
| Texas | 728 | 738 | 1,466 | 2,214 | July |
| Texas | 998 | 858 | 1,856 | 2,729 | August |
| Production | |||||
| SS | MS | Floors | Total | ||
| Texas | 1,341 | 1,201 | 2,542 | 3,759 | June |
| Texas | 1,015 | 810 | 1,825 | 2,645 | July |
| Texas | 1,453 | 995 | 2,448 | 3,457 | August |
While there was a dip in July, August reflected a strong rebound, per official data collected for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
While that source at TRERC said their index is a ‘sentiment’ index not necessarily a data-driven metric, that arguably still is odd. Cavco and Skyline have bragged about their results. Isn’t it out of step with their own corporate states to have their plant managers in Texas reflect a different ‘sentiment’ that is not supported by the objective data? While the news for conventional builders and realtors may be a slowing housing market, manufactured housing has continued to trend upward.
Publicly traded Legacy Housing (LEGH) and Nobility Homes (NOBH), with the later doesn’t operate in Texas, but still reflects to some degree broader industry trends, also tend to support the picture of rising HUD Code manufactured housing production.
Facts are what they are. The above begs the question, why is the TMHA and TRERC providing “sentiments” that seem to be contradicted by actual data? While it might make more sense if the ‘sentiments’ were from street retailers, that’s not the case with their monthly report.
For tens of thousands of manufactured home professionals, the only trade media source that provides such fact, evidence, and common-sense driven fact checks is MHProNews. Others are generally toadies carrying the water for the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) and their dominating brands. Those dominating brands are routinely into consolidation. If the remaining retailers, communities, producers etc. ‘buy into’ reports like these from TRERC, are they possibly fodder perhaps meant to emotionally nudge successful operations into selling out prematurely? While other possibilities exist, especially since TRERC and TMHA know their reports are being monitored and reported on, why would they continue to put forth questionable if not demonstrably incorrect data?
Keep in mind that something similar previously occurred with respect to the demonstrably struggling CrossMods program.
Facts are what they are. It begs the question, why is the TMHA and TRERC providing “sentiments” that seem to be contradicted by actual data? While it might make more sense if the ‘sentiments’ were from street retailers, that’s not the case here.
Recall the years of hype by MHI and brands like Clayton Homes to push the “new class of manufactured homes” that were later rebranded by MHI as CrossModTM homes?
Recall the ‘research’ that MHI claimed to prove how red hot CrossMods would be – but the results have reportedly been in the single or low double digits total nationally, per Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? Or as an MHI connected source told MHProNews, there is no traction to the projection visible. Yet, the hype continues as if it is real, when the facts and evidence demonstrated something different.
MHI’s videos on YouTube reflect a dismal engagement level. The screen captures below are from this date. They tell the tale. When total views are in the single digit level months after posting, that means that even MHI’s own staff don’t all take the time to stop and watch each video once. It ought to be an embarrassment, but more to the point it is another data point that the powers that be in the industry are busily posturing a narrative that when examined turn out to be untrue. See the caption below the image that follows for tips on how to enlarge the screen capture to a larger size.
Or think about Kevin Clayton, during the Trump Administration, telling CNBC that if tariffs don’t’ stop, they’ll impact housing demand? Really, Kevin?
Pivoting back to the questionable claims advanced for years about CrossMods, MHProNews said before these results occurred that the ‘new class of manufactured homes’ that were later rebranded as “CrossMods” by MHI could be a ‘Trojan Horse.’ Indeed, for the first 2½ years after MHI began to promote these far costlier HUD Code manufactured homes, production levels declined.
Thus, MHProNews’ analysis proved prescient. The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) and the Modular Home Builders Association (MHBA) both issued different critiques of the product which MHI sycophants and proverbial fluffers downplayed or overlooked. Nevertheless, MHProNews/MHLivingNews spotlighted and provided the type of objective and expert analysis that has stood the test of time.
To sum up, sadly, some have not yet come to realize that MHI and several of their state affiliates are arguably failing in their duty to their independent members. That failure happens to feed the exit of smaller firms which routinely sell out to larger manufactured home consolidators who are routinely members of MHI, one of their state affiliates, or both. To learn more, see the ground-breaking research by Samuel “Sam” Strommen with Knudson law, linked below.
Other researchers looking in? If you have the liberty to follow the facts and report the same, digest these individual reports to learn example by example how ‘the game is played’ in manufactured housing.
In fairness, as a relevant PS to this, TRERC are not manufactured housing professionals. But they have been advised several times, as this and two prior fact checks linked above reflect, that their routine ‘trust’ of MHI connected source-data or ‘sentiments’ could prove problematic for their reputation. At a minimum, they should seek other sources to balance out their ‘reports’ which are otherwise demonstrably questionable if not factually incorrect.
Daily Business News on MHProNews Markets Segment
NOTICE: Based on feedback, a modification of our Daily Business News on MHProNews recap of yesterday evening’s market report is provided. It will still include our left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines. The macro market moves graphics will provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities.
Reminder: several of the graphics on MHProNews can be opened into a larger size. Click the image and follow the prompts in your browser or device to OPEN In a New Window. Then, in several browsers/devices you can click the image and increase the size. Use the escape or back key to return.
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 10.12.2022
- Bad news for you
- Flanked by Vice Chairs of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Lael Brainard and Michael Barr, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell delivers opening remarks to the “Fed Listens: Transitioning to the Post-pandemic Economy” event in Washington, U.S., September 23, 2022.
- The Fed is focused on handling inflation once and for all, even if rate hikes slow the economy
-
Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report and others on MHProNews can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. For example, in some browsers/devices you click the image and select ‘open in a new window.’ After clicking that selection, you click the image in the open window to expand the image to a larger size. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts. LIVE UPDATES Jury awards damages to Sandy Hook families
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- Microsoft unveils $4,299 Surface desktop computer
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- ‘Slow-moving car crash.’ There’s no quick fix for the UK market mess
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“In the business world, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” – Warren Buffett. That begs a key question. Why don’t more people LOOK at the rearview mirror so they can learn more about the patterns that influence what’s ahead? Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report can be clicked to expand. or example, in some browsers/devices you click the image and select ‘open in a new window.’ After clicking that selection, you click the image in the open window to expand the image to a larger size. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts. filet mignon
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- Dunkin’ is rolling out a new rewards program
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- President Joe Biden’s Treasury Department is investigating whether Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis misused COVID-19 relief funds to transport migrants to Martha’s Vineyard. [Full Story]
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- Hutchinson: Gender-Studies Decisions Should Be Local |
- Tenney: Gun Restrictions, Bail Reform Dangerous |
- RNC’s Alvarez: Midterms’ Momentum With Republicans |
- Dick Morris: Dems No Longer Party of JFK, Bill Clinton |
- Ukraine MP Goncharenko: Biden ‘Right’ to Refuse Putin Meeting |
- Megyn Kelly: Liberal Media Serves ‘Corporate Masters,’ Not Us |
- Jon Voight: Biden ‘Systematically Eliminating’ Trump’s Progress |
- More Newsmax TV
- Newsfront
- US Defense Sec.: Ukraine War to Wage Through Winter
-
In instances such as Apollo, Berkshire Hathaway, Blackstone or others, manufactured housing may only be part of their corporate interests. Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report and others on MHProNews can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. For example, in some browsers/devices you click the image and select ‘open in a new window.’ After clicking that selection you click the image in the open window to expand the image to a larger size. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts. Ukraine is expected to battle Russia through harsh winter conditions, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Wednesday, as allies announced delivery of new air defenses and committed more aid in the wake of Russian missile strikes…. [Full Story]
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===================================
- NOTE 1: The 3rd chart above includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry lender
- NOTE 2: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
- NOTE 3: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm. Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.
- Note 4: some recent or related reports to the equities named above follow.
2022 …Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory-built housing industry suppliers.
· LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others.
· AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here.
Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
· For expert manufactured housing business development or other professional services, click here.
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That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards and honors and also recognition in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
