Almost every seasoned professional will know the importance of collecting data as a measure for achievement and proficiency. Companies need data, investors, bankers, advocates, professionals, researchers, and public officials all need hard, reliable numbers too.
We will begin with facts, and then make some analysis before proceeding to the headlines in the week that was, Sept 1 to Sept 8, 2019.
Understanding comes in part through comparisons. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau data provided to MHProNews at this link here, comes the following quotes.
- Single‐family authorizations in July were at a rate of 838,000; this is 1.8 percent (±1.4 percent) above the revised June figure of 823,000.
- Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 453,000 in July
Here are the summary graphics.
According to data collected on behalf of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) by the Institute for Building Technology & Safety (IBTS) is the following shipment data for the period between July 1 and July 31, 2019.
As industry veterans know, but new comers may not, SW means a single sectional or ‘single wide’ in the old mobile home verbiage that should ideally be avoided in the HUD Code manufactured home era.
MW means a multi-sectional, which means 2 or more “floors.”
| Shipments | ||||
| State | SW | MW | Total | Floors |
| Dest. Pending | 7 | 2 | 9 | 11 |
| Alabama | 154 | 191 | 345 | 539 |
| Alaska | 8 | 4 | 12 | 16 |
| Arizona | 43 | 121 | 164 | 288 |
| Arkansas | 60 | 59 | 119 | 178 |
| California | 39 | 248 | 287 | 549 |
| Colorado | 66 | 10 | 76 | 86 |
| Connecticut | 6 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| Delaware | 13 | 18 | 31 | 49 |
| District of Columbia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | 196 | 420 | 616 | 1,050 |
| Georgia | 85 | 130 | 215 | 345 |
| Hawaii | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Idaho | 6 | 33 | 39 | 73 |
| Illinois | 65 | 26 | 91 | 117 |
| Indiana | 125 | 31 | 156 | 187 |
| Iowa | 24 | 11 | 35 | 46 |
| Kansas | 47 | 7 | 54 | 61 |
| Kentucky | 77 | 123 | 200 | 323 |
| Louisiana | 226 | 118 | 344 | 465 |
| Maine | 25 | 37 | 62 | 99 |
| Maryland | 2 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
| Massachusetts | 15 | 8 | 23 | 31 |
| Michigan | 162 | 159 | 321 | 480 |
| Minnesota | 38 | 40 | 78 | 118 |
| Mississippi | 93 | 113 | 206 | 319 |
| Missouri | 73 | 54 | 127 | 181 |
| Montana | 10 | 19 | 29 | 50 |
| Nebraska | 14 | 3 | 17 | 20 |
| Nevada | 15 | 70 | 85 | 158 |
| New Hampshire | 32 | 16 | 48 | 64 |
| New Jersey | 29 | 13 | 42 | 55 |
| New Mexico | 38 | 52 | 90 | 144 |
| New York | 48 | 77 | 125 | 202 |
| North Carolina | 186 | 175 | 361 | 536 |
| North Dakota | 17 | 20 | 37 | 57 |
| Ohio | 140 | 33 | 173 | 206 |
| Oklahoma | 161 | 65 | 226 | 292 |
| Oregon | 10 | 98 | 108 | 213 |
| Pennsylvania | 63 | 71 | 134 | 205 |
| Rhode Island | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| South Carolina | 123 | 206 | 329 | 537 |
| South Dakota | 5 | 19 | 24 | 43 |
| Tennessee | 81 | 127 | 208 | 335 |
| Texas | 466 | 621 | 1,087 | 1,714 |
| Utah | 14 | 15 | 29 | 44 |
| Vermont | 5 | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| Virginia | 32 | 45 | 77 | 122 |
| Washington | 13 | 96 | 109 | 218 |
| West Virginia | 32 | 66 | 98 | 164 |
| Wisconsin | 30 | 19 | 49 | 68 |
| Wyoming | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Canada | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Puerto Rico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 3,224 | 3,911 | 7,135 | 11,120 |
| Production | ||||
| State | SW | MW | Total | Floors |
| States Shown(*) | 255 | 233 | 488 | 726 |
| Alabama | 465 | 558 | 1,023 | 1,587 |
| *Alaska | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona | 45 | 197 | 242 | 444 |
| *Arkansas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| California | 34 | 217 | 251 | 480 |
| *Colorado | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Connecticut | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Delaware | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *District of Columbia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | 32 | 197 | 229 | 435 |
| Georgia | 196 | 328 | 524 | 858 |
| *Hawaii | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Idaho | 33 | 97 | 130 | 234 |
| *Illinois | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiana | 503 | 241 | 744 | 985 |
| *Iowa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Kansas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Kentucky | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Louisiana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Maine | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Maryland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Massachusetts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Michigan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minnesota | 47 | 61 | 108 | 169 |
| *Mississippi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Missouri | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Montana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Nebraska | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Nevada | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *New Hampshire | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *New Jersey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *New Mexico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *New York | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 86 | 187 | 273 | 462 |
| *North Dakota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Ohio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Oklahoma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oregon | 18 | 193 | 211 | 420 |
| Pennsylvania | 201 | 245 | 446 | 691 |
| *Rhode Island | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *South Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *South Dakota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 520 | 479 | 999 | 1,478 |
| Texas | 789 | 678 | 1,467 | 2,151 |
| *Utah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Vermont | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Washington | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *West Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Wisconsin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Wyoming | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Canada | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| *Puerto Rico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 3,224 | 3,911 | 7,135 | 11,120 |
| (*) THESE STATES HAVE FEWER THAN THREE PLANTS. | ||||
| FIGURES ARE AGGREGATED ON FIRST LINE ABOVE | ||||
| TOTALS TO PROTECT PROPRIETARY INFORMATION. | ||||
The summary of the data above, according to the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) website, is as follows. All of this data or other provided by MHProNews are shared under fair use guidelines for news media. In the screen capture above and below, the arrows and logos were added under such guidelines by MHProNews as well.
July 2019 Summary
Analysis
For the next few moments, contemplate the broad chasm between manufactured housing industry performance and that of conventional single-family or multi-family housing builders. Step back in time to gain perspective. Look at the shipment trends chart below.
Then, ponder the statement from Eric Belsky, then with Harvard’s prestigious Joint Center for Housing Studies.
If you read from other trade publications in our industry that carry water for the Omaha-Knoxville-Arlington axis, one might believe that much is well and good in manufactured housing land (MHVille). But an objective look at the data reveals that clearly something is awry. Call it gaslighting, propaganda, manipulation – but please don’t call it straight talk. What you are looking at in this report, that’s straight talk, based upon hard evidence.
Manufactured Housing Summary Data for July 2019
Now, in order to for:
- Investors,
- Manufactured housing professionals,
- Researchers,
- Public officials,
- Advocates and others
that rely on facts vs. feel-good fiction to grasp what has been and is occurring in manufactured housing, they need a professional resource that peers beyond the eye-candy and ear-tick tickling found elsewhere in MHVille.
The potential for our industry is enormous, that’s the good news. The bad news is that our industry is underperforming. In sports, and football season is underway as baseball season is drawing toward its climax, a team is measured by performance. When a team does badly, if a coach wants to keep their job, they recruit the talent needed, train that talent, and prepare them for victories through a variety of drills, scrimmages and then actual games. If a team does badly enough for enough seasons, management replaces one or more from the coaching staff.
Ladies and gentlemen, manufactured housing has been underperforming for over 20 years. Richard ‘Dick’ Jennison is already slated to leave the Manufactured Housing Institute. Jennison told a room with industry professionals in a talk recorded on video camera how the industry could achieve 500,000 new home shipments. We can get there. When, Dick? After more consolidation takes place? Why wasn’t Jennison or others in senior leadership let go at MHI? Why where top MHI leaders – per their own form 990 – given bonuses instead?
The answer must lie with the MHI Executive Committee. After all, they must have some say over those bonuses – or who stays and goes – correct?
Industry ‘leaders’ have praised Jennison and those senior MHI staffers. Yet the industry has been a 20 year-malaise. There are voices within MHI that have often said to MHProNews that what is going on there is not right. At what point does action replace feel-good propaganda gaslighting?
There may be some investors in publicly traded firms that will tolerate the consolidation occurring in the community sector, for example. But what multi-family housing construction professional would sit quietly by if leading voices were advocating no new construction, so that the existing prosperities would go up in value?
Publicly Traded Manufactured Housing Firms – Which Source Do You Trust More? Why? MHI, MHARR, Others
MHProNews is the runaway leading trade voice, because no one else that publishes ‘independent’ of an association is asking the tough questions, and publishing the rationale analysis based upon evidence. Yes, we have sponsors, but those are in the open, and our analysis is ours, not theirs.
It was tempting to say ‘dispassionate analysis’ – but that would not be true, because we care deeply – passionately – about what has happened and what is to come here at MHProNews, and at our sister site, MHLivingNews too.
Millions are being harmed by what can accurately be described as a purported manipulation of the marketplace. What passes as ‘education’ in this industry clearly is not leading to serious growth, when 10 of the last 11 months have been a decline, and Eric Belsky and others said that manufactured housing should have surpassed conventional home building almost a decade ago.
The flip side? The good news is that means that record growth could lie ahead.
That is what the consolidators are logically counting on – record growth, but only after they feel that they have all that they can get away with.
But the thousands of industry independents that have been harmed, the untold numbers of investors who have been mislead by companies following MHI ‘leadership,’ these are just a few of the tough topics that are found only here on MHProNews and our sister site MHLivingNews.
MHProNews is also your only business-daily manufactured home industry-focused resource that looks at broader economic and political issues, to shed light on how those impact our industry. Some of those reports move stocks, so they clearly matter to manufactured housing industry investors and professionals.
Solutions vs. Whining Or Waiting
Problems and potential without solutions is only whining. We aren’t whiners.
- A new pro-growth trade group is quietly being forged. It will harness the facts plus tough-love truth. That group will tap into the millions of happy – and unhappy – residents, who have likewise been harmed by the status quo promulgated by the Omaha-Knoxville-Arlington axis, mouthpieces, and their allies. It will tap into best practices that have already proven their worth.
- Independents are welcome to inquire via the link below. More on that in the days ahead.
Every week, the links that follow shed light on why the above data is what it is. But a keen mind doesn’t look at only the part of a clear glass or bottle that has water. One looks at the part that is void, and asks, how can I fill that profitably?
That’s an implied goal in every report here. Spotlighting problems is always seen as a step toward shedding light on solutions that can profitably fill the void in affordable housing that is needed by an estimated 8 million households right now.
Facts and understanding are the basis for sound, profit-potential laden action.
With no further adieu, let’s dive into the headlines for the week that was, 9.1.2019 to today. Because only by understanding both the past and the present can someone prepare for a brighter future. That is our aim, to fuel the rebirth of manufactured housing for the benefit of potentially millions who need what this industry does.
What’s News on Manufactured Home Living News
What’s News From Washington, D.C. from the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform
HUD Code Manufactured Home Production Takes an Up-Tick in July 2019 | Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform
MHARR reports that according to HUD, year-over-year HUD Code manufactured home production increased 5.2 in July 2019. Manufacturers produced 7,135 homes…
What’s New on the Daily Business News on MHProNews
Saturday 9.7.2019
Friday 9.6.2019
What’s the Potential? Imagining Manufactured Housing Industry That’s Understood and Respected
Manufactured Housing Part of Trump Administration Housing Finance Reform Plan
Thursday 9.5.2019
“Rape, Pillage, and Murder” Reactions from Industry Professionals to Frank Rolfe Report
Investors, Frank Rolfe’s Mobile Home U Thinking on “Why You Should Never Build A Mobile Home Park”
Wednesday 9.4.2019
Dozens of State AGs Prep Antitrust Action, plus Manufactured Home Investing Updates
Tuesday 9.3.2019
Latest HUD Code Manufactured Home Production Data for July 2019 Mixed
Historic Global Warming 10 Year Warning, Said UN Report, plus Manufactured Home Investment Updates
Illusion of Choice? Mainstream Media Consolidation, Affordable Housing, and Manufactured Home News
“When I think About Chuck, He Made Me Tough” – Coaching Corner, and Manufactured Housing
Monday 9.2.2019
U.S. Labor, China-American Trade, Warren Buffett, and Housing – High Cost of Short-Range Thinking?
Does President Trump Get It About American Labor and Business?
Cowboy’s Take on Labor Day, Plus Labor Day History 101 for MHVille Pros
Sunday 9.1.2019
Watch for hot new topics in the days ahead. Several of our items are suggested from pros like yourself. If you aren’t already on our industry-leading emailed headline news, click here to sign up in seconds. It comes x2 weekly into the inbox you supply. From the most modest independents to the biggest companies, and all in between. Those readers are routinely on this site, and thousands click on through that headline news update. So you are far from alone. You are in the company of thousands of your peers here daily.
This is your home for a healthy daily addictive dose of reality checks.
That’s all she wrote this week. Yeah, that other guy helped some too. Thanks again for reading and sharing manufactured home “Industry News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use,” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (News, weekly recap, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary.)
Soheyla is a managing member of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. Connect with us on LinkedIn here and here.
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