Reflections and insights in this report and analysis come from an array of sources, including personal encounters. For example. It has been a few years since this writer’s last eye examination. Having recently returned last year to Polk County, FL from nearby Osceola County, I was overdue for an eye exam. I picked a nearby eye doctor via online research. Among the accolades found for the eye doctor selected were comments that he had the some of the world’s best eye examination equipment and was praised for his patient care. Being in my insurance network was a bonus. Among the surprises during the exam? No change whatsoever in my prescription. That was a first since I began needing eyeglasses in the fourth grade. But there were other interesting and pleasant surprises.
While we did the kind of doctor-patient banter of getting to know each other, he suddenly remarked during an a-political discussion of football and sports talk that he thought ‘we are in the process of losing our country.’ That ‘we’ he spoke represented his sense of the direction of the U.S.A. It almost popped out of him. After a brief period, he quickly brought the conversation back to my eye exams.
That sort of fear for the future is one heard from the common man to the professional just in terms of everyday encounters with people in stores, at meetings, church, and so on. Some are hopeful. But many are not.
While there are some uplifting or encouraging news, it seems that talk radio, social media, or public polling/opinion surveys often expose examples of a national sense that the U.S. is on the ‘wrong track’ according to “most people.” That’s according to Democrats, Republicans, Independents, minor party believers, and those who are not particularly political.
For anyone involved in media, be it general news or more specialized trade media like here on MHProNews, that sense of a nation on the wrong track should beg questions. Objectivity instead of cheerleading ought to be required.
Part I – Facts, Evidence, and Insights
Beyond anecdotal encounters with friends, family, colleagues, medical professionals, delivery people, service providers, clients, and randomly with the public in ways that you – the reader – know all too well, there are public opinion surveys.
The Real Clear Polling segment of Real Clear Politics (RCP) on this date provided these most recent insights from all of the major polls averages from 11.3.2023 to 12.21.23.
- Right direction (right track) is the view of 25.1 percent of the country.
- 3 say the nation is going in the wrong direction.
- So there is a negative spread, said RCP, of -42.2 percent. That doesn’t bode well for the ‘party in power.’
- While it is generally looking good, that doesn’t mean that the specifics always favor Trump or the Republicans. One this date, in the Pennsylvania polling, Trump leads Biden, but the Democratic candidate leads Republicans by a sizable margin.
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Here is what that RCP graphic looks like on 12.29.2023 at 3:01 AM while I’m researching, writing and cycling on my exercise bike (tip: as of Monday, this writer is down about 36 pounds since mid-August, with a combination of strict calorie counting diet, some modest exercise, and short prayers – [God help me! I’m hungry! 😉 along with thank you Lord, when periodically looking at the scales]. Looking and feeling better than in years, well over a decade since I was at this current weight. If I can do it, you can too. No specific need for a new year’s resolution, no diet pills, no paid diet program or fitness coach. Just a need for a serious and committed resolution, because most of us know deep down what is required. A little splurging with family and friends during the holidays, never hit 2000 calories in any day since I started, routinely under 800 calories a day, and a noteworthy weight drop. Can’t wait to see the look on my MD’s face next month, as he doesn’t know yet about this. He lightly suggested ‘trying’ to lose ‘5 or 10 pounds’).
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Anecdotes both general and personal aside, let’s dive deeper into evidence and facts as this article looks back at 2023 and looks ahead at 2024.
National, Other Industries, vs. MH Industry Graphics
The health of an industry that produces and sells goods as well as services are routinely measured by production data. New automotive data trends over the years reveals, for example, a shift away from passenger cars and minivans towards more pickup trucks and SUVs.
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Can you even get a graphic like this about manufactured housing production by model? On this date, per a Google images search, no.
Here was the image search term used: Manufactured housing production by models and sizes 2000 to 2023. About 1 in 4 graphics that appears near the top were on the MHProNews sister site, Mobile and Manufactured Home Living News (MHLivingNews.com) and the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR). Not one of those shown below appear to be from the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI). Great job promoting the industry, MHI?
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Give the insiders at the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) credit where it is due. They have managed to steadily increase their apparent grip on state associations through the 21st century, perhaps particularly so since Clayton Homes was acquired by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK). The manufactured home industry has undergone a significant series of re-alignments since the mid-to-late 1990s. A broader look at manufactured housing production trends starting in the mobile home era through the transition to HUD Code manufactured homes on June 15, 1976, through what was supposed to be landmark Manufactured Housing Improvement Act (MHIA) of 2000 and its enhanced preemption provision of that law, into the 21st century and up to today. There is simply no one else in MHVille trade media, other than MHProNews and MHLivingNews, which have carefully gathered the facts and evidence about those years. It is as if others have their own agendas, which appears to routinely involve their self-promotion coupled with promotion of MHI talking points. By downplaying important facts and going more with feel good statements and ‘evidence’ that seems to support those feel-good remarks, those others are arguably doing a disservice to their readers, while they are serving the interests of those who are steadily consolidating the manufactured home industry.
Some examples are warranted.
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While business news sites (like the above from Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) financial news site) and mainstream media would periodically mention manufactured housing, at times in favorable ways, they also appeared to routinely miss the kinds of granular insights routinely found here on Manufactured Home Pro News (MHProNews.com) and on our MHLivingNews sister site. We published warnings in 2022 that a downturn was ahead if corrective changes weren’t made. Obviously, those corrective steps didn’t occur in the manner required. Instead of the manufactured housing industry continuing to grow at a modest, uneven, but generally upward trend since the bottom of 2009 and 2010, the industry took its sharpest downturn since the early 21st century downturn and the bottoming crunch of 2009-2010.
The top left image from the screen capture of Google image above was this one from mortgage giant, Fannie Mae.
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Note that the Fannie Mae graphic avoids a look at the industry in its true heyday, in the early 1970s. That is their prerogative.
As MHARR’s President and CEO, Mark Weiss, J.D., has put it, graphics like this ironically tend to prove the failure of the GSEs, only they do so indirectly.
Most manufactured home loans for decades have been chattel loans (home only, personal property loans vs. mortgage (land-home combination) loans). Lending by the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began to fall and then stop after 2000.
2000 was the year that Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), per the Motley Fool financial news site, sold of the bulk of their holdings in Fannie and Freddie.
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Note how the trend in Berkshire’s holdings in Freddie Mac, rising to 1998, and then falling in 1999, and the big sell off afterwards seems to mirror parts of the production trends in manufactured home sales? Note that the image below will get some updated data via call out boxes deeper into this report. But focus on 1997, 1998, 1999, and 2000 above, and the same years below.
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Then, Berkshire took a big stake in manufactured home builder Oakwood in 2002. In 2003 Berkshire acquired vertically integrated Clayton Homes. As lending dried up, Clayton’s market share rose from about 13 percent to about 50 percent, as they acquired other producers.
Why is it that no one else in the balance of what passes as MHVille trade media point out such facts, trends, and evidence, save MHProNews/MHLivingNews?
Ignoring Evidence is Like Ignoring A Cliff or Ledge You Are Near and Moving Toward
If someone took only what is published by trade media and bloggers associated with MHI, an evidence-based case could be made that MHI-linked trade media publish far less content than MHLivingNews/MHProNews do. So, on the one hand, perhaps an argument could be made that we get more traffic than they do because we publish more than they do.
That noted, MHI has also apparently played bigfoot with what they have called for years their state association affiliates. The loss of the so-called Federated States was the loss of the industry’s post-production sector, MHARR leaders have observed. Those Federated States were absorbed into MHI. Information on MHI’s state association and other history vanished during 2023, apparently following the remake of the MHI website. Fortunately, for the industry’s independent-minded professionals, researchers, and others, that state association and other MHI history was captured, commented on, and retained by MHProNews.
While others are busily downplaying or ignoring the growing number of class action lawsuits that hit the manufactured home industry in 2023, MHProNews noted on 12.11.2022 that the threat of such legal action was apparently growing. Meaning, the happy talk crew associated with MHI missed and/or failed to report the signs that MHProNews/MHLivingNews spotlighted.
That noted, if state associations, MHI, and MHI linked publishers and bloggers content were all lumped together, while it might be largely redundant, that may be more info in toto over the course of a year than what MHProNews/MHLivingNews produces.
But it isn’t mere quantity that matters. It is the quality of the insights. Anyone can publish self-serving and/or agenda driven propaganda. To be believable, those reports will likely include some measure of paltering. Paltering is defined by left-leaning Wikipedia as follows. “Paltering is the active use of selective truthful statements to mislead.” Merriam Webster says of paltering: “to act insincerely or deceitfully.” By using selective truths (half-truths – presenting what they want but ignoring other pertinent information that readers ought to know about), the effect is misleading, as Wikipedia noted. That arguably describes not only MHI, but several MHI members, and essentially all of the trade media and bloggers that are MHI members (we are not MHI members, nor are we MHARR members, but MHARR is a sponsor here, just as MHI used to be a sponsor. Our views are independent).
It is prominent MHI member Tim Williams, president and CEO of 21st Mortgage Corporation that praised MHLivingNews and MHProNews and the importance of independent media. Quoting Williams: “MHProNews.com and MHLivingNews.com are both good communications resources for the Manufactured Housing Industry. I and many others at 21st Mortgage and at MHI logon to see the latest news, interviews, debates, videos, opinions, and reports they publish. Having a trade publisher that presents thoughtful, respectful commentary independent of any association’s perspective – as important as an association’s view can be – can be a big asset to advancing the MH Industry’s cause. Let me explain why…” See the balance of those remarks by Williams, a prior MHI chairman and still an MHI board member, at this link here.
Other revealing remarks by Williams at 21st to MHProNews are found at this link here.
Don’t Miss the Point – Buffett’s Lesson Worth Learning
Some might say that those remarks by Williams were in the past. True enough. But it is understanding the past that helps us understand the present. Who said? One of the most powerful Democrats in the U.S. government for years, former history teacher turned Congressman James “Jim” Clyburn (SC-D).
Indeed, it is Warren Buffett – William’s/21st ultimate boss – that stressed the importance of history too, but he did it in different words than Clyburn’s. As Quora pointed out about Buffett’s insights on history is the following. “Warren Buffett’s quote “In the business world, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield” implies that it is often easier to understand and analyze past events and trends in business (the “rear-view mirror”) than it is to predict or foresee future events and trends (the “windshield”).” That’s quite true.
Which is why it ought to be stunning to manufactured home industry professionals that there is so little look at the history of the industry by MHI and MHI linked publishers and bloggers. The notable author of the books Animal Farm and Nineteen Eighty-Four (1984), George Orwell, aptly observed the importance of history through this lens. “The most effective way to destroy people is to deny and obliterate their own understanding of their own history.”
Danny Ghorbani has done more interviews with MHProNews than any other news source in manufactured housing. Ghorbani is one of the few industry professionals still around and kicking who lived through the transition of manufactured housing from the mobile home era into the early years of manufactured housing, and who is still active as the senior advisor for MHARR. Ghorbani has worked for MHI as a vice president for years, before leaving MHI and forming MHARR.
Note the importance of those remarks, as seen through the lens of Buffett’s and Orwell’s insights.
- Buffett stressed the importance of the rearview mirror – of history.
- Orwell stressed the importance of not allowing history to be distorted or erased.
- Ghorbani stressed the noble evolution of trailers, to mobile homes, into early manufactured housing, and then the post-Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 (MHIA) manufactured homes. Ghorbani said: “many in the industry today tend to distort and/or forget altogether [“that rich history”] in order to fit what is to their own benefit.”
- Said Ghorbani, “We must not allow this [i.e.: that distortion or erasing] to occur.”
Manufactured Housing in the 21st Century
The trajectory of total manufactured housing industry production since Warren Buffett led Berkshire bought into Oakwood and later bought Clayton Homes, and rolled up Oakwood under the Clayton Homes umbrella has been downward.
By shrinking the manufactured housing industry, steady consolidation occurred.
The method by which that throttling of manufactured housing industry production occurred in part is by keeping good federal laws that were passed by widely bipartisan margins from being properly implemented.
On this date, MHI claims on their new website that you can:
Grow your business
Get the tools, platform and information you need.”
Seriously? That is apparently MHI gaslighting.
MHI’s home page also says on this date: “The Manufactured Housing Institute is the only national trade organization representing all segments of the factory-built housing industry.” That part is true enough, which is the essence of paltering – some truth mixed with some missing information, half-truth, or even falsehoods or lies. That remark is followed by this from MHI: “We are your trusted partner, advocate and industry leader.” Pardon me? Perhaps the consolidators of the industry trust MHI. Try to find this graphic on the new MHI website, which MHProNews previously captured before it was no longer publicly available.
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More Facts and Evidence
- The number of producing plants is down dramatically since 1990. See the MHI base-graphic above.
- The number of independent retailers in manufactured housing is down dramatically in the 21st century.
- The number of lenders is down dramatically.
- It wasn’t just the loss of GSE chattel lending that hobbled manufactured housing in the 21st century. It was also the loss of FHA Title I loans.
Now, look again at the Fannie Mae production data graphic above by year since 1980. Is it any surprise that since the number of retailers and lending has dropped sharply, that the number of homes sold and thus produced have also fallen? Based on such facts and evidence, a sharp fall in production is almost to be expected, isn’t it?
That said, who in their right mind would believe that with all of Warren Buffett’s resources isn’t it obvious that manufactured housing could be growing in a robust fashion? But instead, given the restrictions and the lack of a serious fight to remove the restrictions has resulted in constrictions – and thus consolidations. ICYMI, see the new report linked below.
Similarly, unlike suits filed on behalf of the tiny house industry, where are the similar suits in the manufactured housing industry?
If the Tiny House Hand Up (THHU) nonprofit, the Institute for Justice (IJ), and a pro-bono attorney can enter into such a lawsuit in a modest town, where is the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) doing something similar? The answer? No where in the U.S., per prior searches performed by MHProNews via Bing AI. Consider the remarks their attorney in that case made.
“The only reason to ban smaller homes is to artificially inflate housing costs and exclude hardworking residents who do not make enough money to afford a larger home, which are not legitimate government interests.”
The City’s [Calhoun, GA] irrational ban on homes smaller than 1,150 square feet thus denies THHU due process of law, in violation of Article I, Section I, Paragraph I of the Georgia Constitution, because it does not bear a substantial relationship to the public health, safety, or general welfare. This Court should therefore declare that the Minimum Floor Area Requirement is unconstitutional both as applied to THHU and on its face, and enjoin the City from enforcing the requirement. Alternatively, or in addition, this Court should grant a Writ of Certiorari and find that the Defendants’ denial of THHU’s application for a variance from the Minimum Floor Area Requirement was based on errors of law and was not supported by substantial evidence.”
Arguments like that, in tandem with enhanced preemption found in the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 (MHIA), could be ground-breaking for liberating manufactured housing. During an affordable housing crisis, which is near the heart of the Calhoun case, manufactured housing is being denied coast-to-coast by local zoning issues. If the Tiny House Hand Up (THHU) nonprofit, IJ, and a pro-bono attorney can enter into such a suit in Calhoun, where is the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) doing something similar? Why hasn’t MHI – for example – supported or entered into similar such efforts – such as the MHI was asked in the manufactured home Plant A Home case involving the Taft family in Ayden, NC?
“But excluding lower income people is not a permissible zoning objective,” is just one of several points in the pleadings by IJ on behalf of this tiny house project.
Arguments by IJ and their local counsel against size, appearance, etc. are made too. In 2023, MHARR, MHProNews, and MHLivingNews lead the charge on such concerns. Where were MHI, state associations, and their aligned publications? Not only silent, but per the latest from MHI, they are busy attempting to further throttle discussion or debate via new meeting rules recently published on the MHI website.
The Trends Towards More Manufactured Home – Land Lease Community Sales
Then, consider this flashback remark, uploaded on February 19, 2020.
Who else besides MHProNews has reported that MHI removed reports that they previously offered to the public, perhaps because MHProNews exposed the fact that community sales were surpassing those of street retailers?
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To further illustrate the trends in street retail is the following flashback to February 16, 2021.
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Knowledge is potential power is an ancient maxim – “Scientia potentia est.” But the opposite of that is also true. A lack of knowledge leads to a lack of power. When MHI linked sources strip or deny access to much of the industry of information that may prove useful, it is kneecapping some while benefiting others (i.e.: consolidators).
It would be unsurprising to learn that Legacy Housing (LEGH) has produced more of what they label as tiny houses than all of the other HUD Code manufactured home producers combined have sold in so-called CrossMod Homes during the same period.
When enough information is gathered and understood, then the rearview mirror – as Buffett called it – is obviously evidence of the hobbling of manufactured housing in the 21st century. Kevin Clayton stressed the importance of enhanced preemption under the MHIA of 2000 in his prior remarks to Congress. So too has Cavco President and CEO, William “Bill” Boor last July in his remarks to Congress. On paper, MHI looks like the support enhanced federal preemption as much as MHARR does.
But isn’t that why paltering works on so many? Paltering, or what the Capital Research Center has described as Deception and Misdirection, is slippery, deceptive, and misleading. Someone says one thing, but then does something quite out of step with what they said.
Who in MHVille trade media dares openly criticize Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway? Besides MHProNews and MHLivingNews? Yet, even Barron’s recently said that Buffett is at risk of losing his ‘good guy’ image. That headline should have brought inquiring minds to look into those remarks and then check the facts, as MHProNews did in the report linked below.
This writer for MHProNews asked Tim Williams/21st face to face in a room with other MHI members this. Why isn’t MHI suing to get federal enhanced preemption enforced? Williams looked right at me, smiled, and said that at some point they may need to do that, but they wanted to first try other things short of litigation. After a decade, do you think you have consolidated enough of the industry to warrant suing to get enhanced preemption enforced Tim?
Or do you think that after admitting to a group of MHI members that he was glad that the GSE pilot project for manufactured home lending had failed that the industry’s independents and others would have no doubt that Berkshire driven MHI would have clearly communicated their intentions of consolidation?
The manufactured home industry is underperforming by historic and potential metrics.
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To learn more what that is so, see the linked reports.
What’s in store for 2024? Unless there is a serious push for systemic change, it will likely be more of the same. More on accountability for MHI and their dominating members in the days ahead or in the linked reports. ##
Part II – is our Daily Business News on MHProNews stock market recap which features our business-daily at-a-glance update of over 2 dozen manufactured housing industry stocks.
This segment of the Daily Business News on MHProNews is the recap of yesterday evening’s market report, so that investors can see at glance the type of topics may have influenced other investors. Thus, our format includes our signature left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines.
The macro market move graphics below provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities. Meaning, you can see ‘at a glance’ how manufactured housing connected firms do compared to other segments of the broader equities market.
In minutes a day readers can get a good sense of significant or major events while keeping up with the trends that are impacting manufactured housing connected investing.
Reminder: several of the graphics on MHProNews can be opened into a larger size. For instance: click the image and follow the prompts in your browser or device to OPEN In a New Window. Then, in several browsers/devices you can click the image and increase the size. Use the ‘x out’ (close window) escape or back key to return.
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the morning of 12.28.2023
- L’Oreal heiress Francoise Bettencourt Meyers is the first woman with a $100 billion fortune, according to Bloomberg
- Boeing 737 MAX airplanes are seen parked at a Boeing facility on August 13, 2019 in Renton, Washington.
- Missing piece on aircraft prompts Boeing to ask airlines to inspect all 737 Max jets
- How much to tip this holiday
- Homes in Hercules, California, US, on Wednesday, Aug. 16, 2023.
- Mortgage rates drop for the ninth week in a row
- Taylor Swift helps drive UK vinyl sales to highest level since 1990
- A home has a pending sale on Grant Street in Berkeley, Calif. on Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020.
- This is what constitutes as good news for home sales this year
- Amazon Prime Video logo is seen displayed on a phone screen in this illustration photo taken in Poland on December 1, 2020.
- Why Amazon just sent you an email about ads on Prime Video
- Customers are buying AITO M9 models at a Huawei store in Shanghai, China, on December 27, 2023.
- China’s Xiaomi dreams of building a car ‘as good as’ Porsche and Tesla
- Forget ‘spend less’ or ‘save more.’ Make this your No. 1 financial resolution for 2024
- A Chick-fil-A restaurant on NY State Thruway in Chittenango, NY.
- A bill could require future rest stop Chick-fil-A’s to stay open on Sundays. The GOP calls that ‘insanity’
- ‘It got pretty weird’: The 5 most bizarre moments in tech in 2023
- Here’s when Apple Watches are set to return to store shelves
- This police department is piloting a four-day work week
- Powerball jackpot rises to $760 million after no winner Wednesday night
- Powerball draws numbers for potential $700 million jackpot
- China’s economy had a miserable year. 2024 might be even worse
- Gaston Glock, inventor of the namesake pistol, dies at 94
- The New York Times sues OpenAI and Microsoft for copyright infringement
- Apple to restart watch sales after court temporarily blocks import ban
- Gas prices will fall in 2024 and Americans will spend $32 billion less on fuel, GasBuddy predicts
- Where you can still buy the latest Apple Watch
- Apple is no longer selling the newest Apple Watch in America after the White House declines to overturn ban
- Steve Ballmer is set to make $1 billion a year for doing nothing