On SEP 19 20221:56 PM EDT, CNBC correspondent Diana Olick did a report that provided the following toplines or “key points” on the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Information from the National Association of Realtors, the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR), the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), and the MHI state affiliate – the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA) – are provided herein in this fact-packed column with analysis and commentary to follow.
Per CNBC. the following.
KEY POINTS
- Homebuilder sentiment in September fell 3 points to 46 in the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything below 50 is considered negative.
- Nearly a quarter of builders reported lowering prices as rates surged.
- Higher costs for land, labor and materials have made it harder for builders to lower prices, but they are now being forced to.
As mortgage interest rates have recently surged to 6 percent for numbers of 30-year mortgages, inflation driven higher costs, higher selling prices combined with higher interest rates have yielded a near ‘perfect storm’ that have caused a slowdown for conventional builders. While some consumers are benefiting from this trend, it is also MHProNews notes that it is ‘pricing out’ millions of potential home buyers, using the applied logic of the NAHB priced out principle. Note: while the graphic below is from 2019, the principle of well over 127,000 households being priced out for each $1,000 in higher cost holds.
The National Association of Realtors tweeted out the following.
“Home prices are still rising by double-digit percentages year-over-year, but annual price appreciation should moderate to the typical rate of 5% by the end of this year and into 2023,” said NAR’s Lawrence Yun. via @NBCNews https://t.co/t6JJzPyHxy
— NAR Research (@NAR_Research) September 17, 2022
Fox Business on 9.15.2022 said: “Redfin predicts sharpest turn in housing market since 2008 crash,” and “After two years of record high sales, data shows the housing market is starting to cool down.”
Those serious problems for potentially hundreds of thousands of home buyers who have now been priced out could still qualify for a manufactured home. Following the next segment of this report based on 9.19.2022 insights from Reuters, MHProNews will editorially unpack the opportunities and challenges for manufactured home sellers and providers.
In a report by Lucia Mutikani via Reuters under the 9.19.2022 headline: “U.S. home builder sentiment falls for ninth straight month in September,” is the following.
U.S. home builder sentiment falls for ninth straight month in September
By Lucia Mutikani – 9.19.2022 10:02 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders fell for the ninth straight month in September as soaring mortgage rates and persistently high prices for building materials made new housing less affordable for many first-time buyers.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index dropped three points to 46 this month. Discounting the plunge during the spring of 2020 when the economy was reeling from the first wave of COVID-19, this was the lowest reading since May 2014. A reading below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor rather than good.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 47.
The Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy tightening has had a significant impact on the housing market, compared to the labor market and consumer spending, where demand remains fairly strong.
The U.S. central bank is expected to raise its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday for the third time since June. Since March, the Fed has lifted that rate from near zero to its current range of 2.25% to 2.50%. …
Permits for future home construction are, however, expected to have declined to a rate of 1.610 million units from a pace of 1.685 million units in July.
“It looks clear that higher rates have been weighing on the housing market, and we continue to see weak trends across many of the related recent reports,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.” ##
Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary in Brief
On MHLivingNews is the following fact packed report that reveals the latest data in manufactured housing nationally, regionally, and by each of the 50 states.
The fact-packed report linked above reveals the following. While manufactured housing is still rising in year-over-year national data per the information provided by the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR). Other information from the U.S. Census Bureau, and IBTS for HUD are also found above on subjects ranging from average selling price (nationally and regionally), state-by-state data for single and multi-sectional manufactured homes production and shipments are also included in the above linked report that was recently highlighted by various mainstream media outlets.
Those insights need to be compared and contrasted with another recent report that quotes Cavco Industries (CVCO) which in turn cited the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI). That report asserts that there is a serious shift away from shipments to manufactured home ‘street retailers’ and toward shipments into manufactured home land-lease communities.
Additionally, there are assertions from the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA), which is in the number 1 state in the U.S. for new manufactured home production and shipments, that factories there are dialing production back.
It should be obvious that manufactured housing ought to be soaring while far costlier mainstream housing is slowing. But due to arguably embarrassing performance by the manufactured housing industry’s so-called umbrella trade group – Arlington, VA based MHI – the industry – per one of their own MHI affiliates, the TMHA – is going into a downturn. See the above for more details.
For two consecutive issues of Kurt Kelley’s and Frank Rolfe, Dave Reynolds linked MHR there was an article ‘announcing’ a new manufactured home trade group. But the most recent issue of MHR has seemingly dropped that topic.
The apparent need for a BS Decoder ring that:
- follows a wide array of facts and then compares those facts in cogent, common-sense analysis that then
- reveals the striking disconnects between those various sources
has perhaps never been more important. Facts and reason still matter.
A series of planned reports that may include mainstream media releases is planned to reveal the corruption in MHVille and nationally.
Opportunity meets obstacles. The prudential insight of the assassinated Democratic President John F. Kennedy still rings true.
If MHI were seriously focused on solutions rather than posturing, paltering, and projecting then they have a funny way of showing it. After all, MHI signs onto helping conventional housing builders, but when do those ‘housing coalition partners’ assist MHI to get manufactured housing interests advanced?
Stay tuned for what’s next…
…which can only be found in MHVille #1 largest and most read trade media that provides a meaningful, fact-based, authentic, and occasionally satirical report on MHProNews and MHLivingNews.
Daily Business News Markets Segment
NOTICE: Based on feedback, a modification of our Daily Business News on MHProNews recap of yesterday evening’s market report is provided. It will still include our left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines. The macro market moves graphics will provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities.
Reminder: several of the graphics on MHProNews can be opened into a larger size. Click the image and follow the prompts in your browser or device to OPEN In a New Window. Then, in several browsers/devices you can click the image and increase the size. Use the escape or back key to return.
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 9.19.2022
- Beginning of the end
- Press tour to the Saudi Aramco oil refinery at the Abqaiq and Khurais oil fields in Saudi Arabia that was attacked by drones on September 14. The site of the Saudi Aramco oil refinery at the Khurais oil field. October 12 2019.
-
As the 2022 midterms draw closer, Biden and Democrats are attempting various efforts to stir up their base and encourage or ‘buy’ votes, such as through the constitutionally questioned student loan forgiveness plan. Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi previously said the student loan forgiveness plan would require Congressional approval. What happened to that? Doesn’t the Constitution provide that Congress, not the president, has that power? Who died and made Biden a ruler by fiat? Who believes that inflation is falling who is going to the grocery store? Yes, gas prices have fallen, due to an apparent drop in global demand as an economic slowdown is taking place. The Washington Examiner said that a historic record 88 percent now thinks that the U.S. is on the wrong track under Biden. As the value of the dollar erodes, that impact should be considered when looking at stock market performance. Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts. The latest oil boom has made wealthy Arab states even richer. But this may be their last
- Stocks dip slightly ahead of Federal Reserve meeting
- Nobel Prize-winning economist: Fed risks ‘disgrace’ if it doesn’t control inflation
- Another big rate hike is coming. Lather. Rinse. Repeat
- Queen Elizabeth’s funeral marks the end of TV dominance that started with her coronation
- Why it’s time to start paying with $2 bills
- Uber says hacker group Lapsus$ behind cybersecurity incident
- TikTok’s search engine repeatedly delivers misinformation to its majority-young user base, report says
- 1 in 5 of China’s urban youth are unemployed. That’s a huge headache for Xi Jinping
- Google mistakenly sent an engineer almost $250,000
- Fried chicken was cheap food for South Koreans. Now a meal can cost $22
- Here’s why Facebook is facing an existential moment
- President Biden interview on 60 Minutes.
- President Biden says America will get inflation under control. But it won’t be easy
- The new Chrysler 300C sits in Spirit of Detroit Plaza after being unveiled at a press event ahead of the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Michigan on September 13, 2022.
- This special edition Chrysler will be the most powerful 300 offered by a wide margin
- Nanisca (Viola Davis) in TriStar Pictures' THE WOMAN KING.
- ‘The Woman King’ surprises at the box office
- MARKETS
- A-LISTERS
- BEVERLY HILLS, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 09: Kanye West attends the 2020 Vanity Fair Oscar Party at Wallis Annenberg Center for the Performing Arts on February 09, 2020 in Beverly Hills, California.
- Kanye West says he’s terminating his partnership with the Gap
- Quinta Brunson interrupts Jimmy Kimmel’s monologue
- Sean Connery’s ‘James Bond car’ sold for $2.4 million
- Snoop Dogg’s blunt roller got a raise due to inflation
- How Jay-Z inspired a Real Housewife’s new bourbon
- THE BRITISH MONARCHY
- The Piccadilly Lights are cleared of adverts and show a tribute to the Queen. Queen Elizabeth the second is dead in her Platinum Jubillee year. The announcement came early this evening from Balmoral Castle.
- Queen Elizabeth the second died today at Balmoral., Buckingham Palace, London – 08 Sep 2022
- Analysis: How the world learned about Queen Elizabeth’s death
- How the new king built a top organic food brand
- ‘The Crown’ viewership surged after Queen’s death
- Prince William has inherited a 685-year-old estate
- 100 of Prince Charles’ staffers could lose their jobs
- SUCCESS
- MIAMI, FLORIDA – MAY 10: In an aerial view, single family homes are shown in a residential neighborhood on May 10, 2022 in Miami, Florida. New published data has hinted at improvement in the supply of homes for sale as April's numbers show inventory down 12 percent from the same month last year, the smallests yearly decline since the end of 2019.
- Mortgage rates top 6% for the first time since 2008
-
“In the business world, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” – Warren Buffett. That begs a key question. Why don’t more people LOOK at the rearview mirror so they can learn more about the patterns that influence what’s ahead? Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts. Arlington, MA – July 19: Single family homes on Colonial Drive in Arlington, where the single family home remains king, despite efforts to allow for the construction of more multi-unit dwellings, resulting in home prices soaring. Nearly 80 percent of zoning for residential homes in the area is for single family homes only.
- Mortgage rates reach highest level since 2008
- Workers enter Citigroup headquarters in New York, US, on Thursday, Aug. 4, 2022.
- Summer is over. And the battle to get workers back to the office is heating up
- People use automated teller machines (ATM) outside a Bank of America branch in San Francisco, California, U.S., on Thursday, Jan. 14, 2021.
- Bank of America to offer zero-down payment mortgages in certain Black and Hispanic communities
Headlines from right-of-center Newsmax 9.19.2022
- Experts, GOP Take Issue With Biden’s ‘Pandemic Is Over’ Declaration
- Science experts say the coronavirus pandemic is not yet concluded. Republicans say if it is over, all the draconian health policies enacted at its height ought to be lifted without delay. [Full Story]
- Queen Elizabeth II (1926-2022)
- Inside the Abbey, a Funeral Fit for a Leader
- Queen Being Reunited with Philip, Her Parents in Windsor
-
In instances such as Apollo, Berkshire Hathaway, Blackstone or others, manufactured housing may only be part of their corporate interests. Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts. Britain and World Say Final Goodbye to Queen Elizabeth II
- Report: Royal Family Worth $23 Billion
- Armenian President Broke Rules at Lying-in-State
- People Across Britain Pause for Minute of Silence on Eve of Funeral
- Biden Says Queen’s Death Left ‘Giant Hole’ for Royal Family
- Ukraine’s First Lady Views Queen’s Coffin, Meets Princess of Wales
- Newsmax TV
- Grover Norquist: Biden Lied on Economy; WH Acting Happy | video
- Albanian PM: Ending Diplomatic Relations With Iran Over Cyberattacks | video
- John Browne: Commonwealth ‘Huge Force for Peace’ | video
- Gordon Chang: China May Not Win Against Taiwan | video
- Dick Morris: Hillary Trying to Capitalize as Centrist | video
- Grenell: Martha’s Vineyard Hypocritical on Migrants | video
- Grothman: Heavy Penalties for Hiding Stock Trades | video
- Texas AG: BlackRock’s ESG Push Makes No Sense | video
- Newsfront
- Illegal Migrant Arrests Higher Under Biden Than Obama
- Border Patrol agents nationwide have arrested more people who crossed the border unlawfully in 18 months under President Joe Biden than during former President Barack Obama’s two terms, underscoring the extent of the border crisis. … [Full Story]
- Embattled Putin Threatens More Destruction in Ukraine
- Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to intensify his army’s [Full Story]
- Ben & Jerry’s Founders Upset Unilever Not Boycotting Israel
- The founders of Ben & Jerry’s, who no longer run the ice cream [Full Story]
- NYC Mayor: Migrant Mother Killed Herself in Our Shelter
- An asylum seeker in a New York City homeless shelter apparently [Full Story]
- Tesla Completes Expansion at Shanghai Plant
- Tesla completed a project to expand production capacity at its [Full Story]
- Fetterman Coverage Shows Media ‘Double Standard’ as Oz Closes Gap
- Recent polls from Pennsylvania indicate that Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz [Full Story] | Platinum Article
- Europe Races to Prepare for Winter Energy Crunch
- European governments outlined new measures on Monday to cope with [Full Story]
- Dick Morris’ ‘The Return’ Hits WSJ Bestseller List, But NY Times Censors Book
- Newsmax host Dick Morris “The Return: Trump’s Big 2024 Comeback” [Full Story]
- Unlucky 13: Putin’s Inner Circle Plagued by Bizarre Deaths
- The mysterious deaths in 2022 of more than a dozen Russian oligarchs [Full Story] | Platinum Article
- Zelenskyy Vows No Let Up as Ukraine Says Troops Cross Key River in Northeast
- President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed there would be no let-up in [Full Story]
- Related
- Baltic States Close Borders to Russians Over Ukraine war
- Ukraine Says Russian Missile Struck Close From Nuclear Plant
- Biden’s ‘Pandemic Is Over’ Declaration Ripped by Experts, GOP
- President Joe Biden’s “60 Minutes” declaration “the pandemic is over” [Full Story] | video
- Some Fear Fed Will Tighten Rates Too Far as Inflation Bites
- Just months ago, investors worried the Federal Reserve was not [Full Story]
- Warren Calls on DOT to Stop JetBlue’s Spirit Purchase
- Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., wrote a letter to Department of [Full Story]
- More Than 100 Million Americans Have Medical Debt: Study
- Medical debt increases the risks of eviction, food insecurity, and [Full Story]
- Pelosi’s Visit Shows Armenian Dissent Against Russia Ties
- While visiting Armenia over the weekend, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, [Full Story]
- Video Report: Govs. Abbott, DeSantis Vow to Keep Sending Migrants to Blue Areas
- Republican Govs. Greg Abbott, R-Texas, and Ron DeSantis, R-Florida, [Full Story] | video
- DHS Appoints Members to ‘Reinvigorated’ Faith-Based Council
- The Department of Homeland Security on Monday appointed 25 members to [Full Story]
- Intense Workouts May Be Detrimental to Mental Health and Memory
- A new study from researchers at Dartmouth College found that when it [Full Story]
- Report: Gov. Newsom Will Run for President in ’24 If Biden Doesn’t
- California Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom is “undeniably, [Full Story]
- Iran President Expresses Doubts About Holocaust
- Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a recent interview expressed [Full Story]
- Pentagon Reviews Policy of Creating Fake Social Media Accounts
- The Defense Department ordered an investigation into how it conducts [Full Story]
- Voters Split Into ‘2 Campaigns’ Before Midterms
- Voters favor Republicans on issues of the economy, crime and border [Full Story]
- Youngkin Hitting Campaign Trail as Speculation Swirls Over Possible WH Plans
- Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin is expected to jump onto the [Full Story]
- American Freed by Taliban in Swap
- An American contractor held hostage in Afghanistan for more than two [Full Story]
- Democrats Gird for GOP House Majority
- Democrats are predicting legislative gridlock if Republicans win [Full Story]
- US Aircraft Carrier to Visit SKorea Amid NKorean Threats
- A U.S. aircraft carrier is to visit South Korea this week for its [Full Story]
- Trump Back at Mar-a-Lago Home, Laments It’s Been ‘Ransacked’ by FBI Raid
- Former President Trump is back at his Mar-a-Lago residence – [Full Story]
- Lawmakers Frustrated With Talks Over Manchin Permitting Reform Deal
- Tension in Congress is building as Democrat leaders try to satisfy [Full Story]
- China Health Chief Tells Public Not to Touch Foreigners After First Monkeypox Case
- A top Chinese health official has warned the public to avoid [Full Story]
- Milley: As Russia Flounders, World Must Be on High Alert
- The top U.S. general cautioned on Sunday it remained unclear how [Full Story]
- Finance
- Biden: Despite Stock Market Slide, Inflation Rose ‘Hardly at All’
- President Joe Biden argued on CBS News’ “60 Minutes” Sunday that last week’s inflation report that caused the stock market to nosedive was up “hardly at all” from the previous month and should be put “in perspective.”… [Full Story]
- Europe’s Central Bank to Use Climate Scores as it Buys Bonds
- How to Get a Student Loan Refund if You Paid During Pandemic
- Medical Debt is Common, Even Among the Insured, Study Shows
- Bob Ciura: 3 High-Yield Stocks for Compelling Dividend Income
- More Finance
- Health
- Harvard Researchers Reveal the No. 1 Secret to Success and Happiness
- A rare study that tracked the lives of 724 men for nearly 80 years revealed the most powerful indicator of success and happiness doesn’t lie in our genes, wealth, social class, or IQ. The Harvard Study of Adult Development, the longest study of adult behavior, found that… [Full Story]
- Nearly 1 in 10 Americans Have Depression
- Medical Debt is Common, Even Among the Insured, Study Shows
- Drinking Tea Daily Linked to Reduced Risk for Diabetes
- Biden: ‘The Pandemic Is Over’ Even as Death Toll, Costs Mount
===================================
- NOTE 1: The 3rd chart above includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry lender
- NOTE 2: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
- NOTE 3: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm. Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.
- Note 4: some recent or related reports to the equities named above follow.
2022 …Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory-built housing industry suppliers.
· LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others.
· AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here.
Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
· For expert manufactured housing business development or other professional services, click here.
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That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards and honors and also recognition in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
