Celia Chen with Moody Analytics told attendees at the Manufactured Housing Institute’s (MHI) Congress and Expo that housing is and will improve, thus also boosting the U.S. economy. Chen said consumer and business confidence is up. Her facts and figures underscored what National Communities Council (NCC) Chairman, David Lentz, referred to during their portion of the annual Las Vegas event as the “Red hot housing” market recovery.

The graphics below were part of Chen’s power point. The commentary will be that of MHProNews.

There is no doubt that housing starts and re-sales are up, as is construction employment. So confidence from improving conditions is also up, according to the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders).

 

The projection for the balance of 2013 and moving into 2014 is for real GDP growth.

The number of household formations is up, Chen suggests, due to improving economic conditions. Household formations tends to lead to more demand for new homes.

 

The combination of low prices and low interest rates makes home affordability high. Reducing REO inventories and rising conventional housing prices all bode well for manufactured housing.

While still below the levels during the run-up to the burst of the housing bubble, government, realtor and Moody’s projections forecast a rise of housing sales to over 6 million housing units annually by 2014.

 

Meanwhile, the pace of home building is well below the norm for the 15 years prior to 2007. Growing demand, new household formations and rising prices can all yield opportunities for new factory-built HUD Code homes.

The demand for housing is greater than the supply. This fact echoes the routine reminder from MHProNews to our readers that the U.S. will need 20 million new housing units by 2030.

Declining inventories in a number of markets have fueled rising home prices.

These charts echo some projections by two plus years ago by Dr. David Funk and Chuck Shinn, namely, that the housing recovery would begin to show itself at about this time. So Chin at Moody’s is not alone in her thinking, analysis and projections.

Price gains are easing the numbers of homes underwater in their mortgages. Loan performance is improving.

So there are a number of improving markets, with some heating up even faster.

In the chart below. Moody’s projects a more modest growth in new manufactured home shipments than some sources we hear from.

For example, one source tells us they anticipate new manufactured housing shipments to essentially triple by 2017.

But the consensus is that there will be a rise in new MH shipments, welcome news for newcomers and downturn survivors alike.

That said, our potential is far greater than any of these estimates, given a more professional and creative marketing and sales efforts.

All of this can mean better news for employment, as housing is a key factor in job creation. So like domestic energy production, it can fuel broader economic growth.

Our thanks to Ceilia Chen and Moody’s for their charts and analysis. ##