How Valid Are Texas Manufactured Housing Survey Claims by Texas Real Estate Research Center-TMHA–‘Supply Conditions Smooth Set Stage for Texas Manufactured Housing Expansion’ – Seriously? Plus, MHVille Update
When a ‘survey’ is a ‘sentiments’ survey, as the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) told MHProNews earlier in this year, it is entirely possible for TRERC and the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA) to be accurate about their survey results, but nevertheless be inaccurate or even misleading, intentionally or not, about the hard facts of the marketplace. Because Texas has long been the runaway #1 state in the U.S. for manufactured housing production and shipments, the disconnect between sentiments and facts can be significant, as this evidence-based report with analysis will examine.
Part II provides additional information from a range of sources, including TRERC, TMHA, Bing AI, and others as shown herein.
Part III is our industry leading and still exclusive Daily Business News on MHProNews market report with mainstream left (CNN) right (Newsmax) headlines recap. To illustrate the point that there are no other known resources serving the manufactured housing industry in quite the same manner as this site does, the following question was put to Bing AI on 11.22.2023.
> “Who in manufactured housing professional trade media produces a daily business news manufactured housing industry connected stock and equities market recap?”
Two links from this (MHProNews.com) website were provided by Bing AI, one was the home page (as shown in their linked results) and the other was an apparently random example which linked the report shown below this paragraph. While others publish or blog in the non-MHProNews/MHLivingNews balance of the MHVille trade media, there are no other known resources that do what MHProNews does. Which is perhaps why our site metrics indicate rising traffic and strong pages-per visit engagement. In a separate Bing AI response, that artificial intelligence praised the expertise displayed by this platform. See that linked here. For the most dependable news, candid, and years of dependable analysis, there is nothing else in MHVille like it. For the rah rah and razzle dazzle that others provide which have at various times been demonstrably debunked, an apparent minority of industry pros go elsewhere. To paraphrase and apply to our ‘wannabe’ rivals a historic remark from the vantagepoint of truth-seekers in MHVille ‘they lie to us, they know that we know that they are lying.’ Sad that in the 21st century someone must be concerned about the reliability of media, but an array of mainstream media and professional researchers have flatly said that such is where we are, so it is important for truth-seekers to be aware of that reality. Not all news by others is fake news, but there is more than enough fake news to warrant the factual, evidence-based reports and pragmatic analysis found here. And, oh, by the way, one of our boastful rivals has their sister-brand and their parent company being sued in multiple national class action cases. Score another win for the sincere efforts found here, thanks as always to those who read and make this site possible.
Against that factual and evidence-based preface, let’s dive into Part I.
Part I
Supply conditions smooth, set stage for Texas manufactured housing expansion
COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – After several years of COVID-19-induced volatility, supply conditions have smoothed over the past 18 months, according to the latest edition of the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS). Housing manufacturers have responded by hiring more workers and expanding production.
Respondents unanimously reported “no change” in supply chain disruptions during October, suggesting that last month’s bottlenecks were an aberration and signifying operations stability throughout the industry.
“Supply chains started smoothing back in January 2022 amid a slowdown in the global economy,” said Dr. Harold Hunt, research economist at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University (TRERC). “While the war in Ukraine caused some temporary disruptions in the energy sector, supply chains have continued to function well. Ocean and truck freight costs have remained soft, even as diesel fuel costs rose. Prices for other key commodities have softened, including a 6 percent year-over-year decrease in lumber.”
The deflationary environment extended into the manufactured housing sector as the TMHS indicated cheaper prices paid for raw materials. These supply conditions directly impact the price of manufactured homes, which have fallen for four consecutive months.
“The industry has responded to upstream improvements by expanding production,” said Wes Miller, senior research associate at the TRERC. “They are investing more into physical capital and are on a seven-month hiring spree as labor costs have normalized.”
Regional demand contributed to robust activity at housing manufacturing plants.
“Elevated demand from other states paired with Texas retailer placements at the highest year-to-date total in more than ten years, which should lead to plenty of future orders,” said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. “The TMHS out-of-state shipments index has trended downward toward the no-change mark, but this suggests a stabilization at historically high levels.”
TMHS respondents anticipate an acceleration of total new orders over the next six months, and they expressed general optimism generated by decreased uncertainty and an improved outlook.
—30—
Part II – Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary
For years, MHProNews has carefully tracked and unpacked reports by the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) and others who provide publicly traded information, mainstream, nonprofit, or other research.
Paltering is defined by left-leaning Wikipedia in this fashion. “Paltering is the active use of selective truthful statements to mislead.” Yes, it is useful to MHProNews/MHLivingNews to have and cultivate a reputation for accuracy, expertise, and dependability. But the demonstrable existence of paltering should be considered by industry professionals, because an array of third-party researchers across the left-right and neutral spectrums have made it clear that paltering is all too often found in business, governmental, and other reports. To illustrate, consider the following, which will be considered in the light of MHI and the analysis of reports from TRERC/TMHA.
What Big Name Sources Say About Paltering
According to the Harvard Business School (HBS.edu) “Presidential candidates do it. Business leaders do it…Paltering is a gentle form of lying, but is reviled by negotiators on the receiving end.” That is from a report entitled: “How To Deceive Others With Truthful Statements (It’s Called ‘Paltering,’ And It’s Risky).” Harvard has addressed this several times, for example, in a different report saying: “Paltering is the active use of truthful statements to convey a misleading impression.” That is the sense commonly used here on MHProNews andMHLivingNews.
Note that the American Psychological Association (APA) also has addressed concerns about paltering. For instance, with the definition from Wikipedia of paltering in mind, in a report by the APA it said: “Paltering is the ability to deceive someone by telling the truth, which is seen as the equivalent to intentional lying.”
The federal National Institutes of Health (NIH) said in 2020: “Paltering is a form of deception whereby true statements are used to mislead and is widely employed in negotiations, marketing, espionage, and ordinary communications where speakers hold ulterior motives.”
Anyone who considers the words of a business, political, nonprofit or other leaders and doesn’t consider the possibility that they are either outright lying or telling a half-truth in order to mislead and deceive their listeners/readers is arguably being naive. Sometimes people lie boldly. But sometimes, they tell part of the truth, hoping that in doing so the rest of the truth (that they don’t want revealed) is thereby concealed. The purpose, says the NIH, is simple. “Paltering is a form of deception whereby true statements are used to mislead” when “ordinary communications where speakers hold ulterior motives.”
“Ulterior motives.” When the definition, for the sake of some readers, of that term was requested of Bing, here is how that was described.
We are aware of no others in MHVille who have bothered to raise this vexing topic of the ulterior motives behind misleading information. Why not? Perhaps because they don’t want their own paltering or other deceptions to be contemplated and revealed? It should be noted for our growing ranks of newcomers that several of the other competitors to this platform are members of MHI.
To illustrate the significance of this issue of paltering, a question was put to Bing AI about the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR). As a relevant segue, in our experience and view, MHARR’s two primary officials have a history of doggedly sticking to facts, evidence, and then applying their own analysis to reports based on facts and evidence. A source associated with MHARR deemed reliable has told MHProNews that they are ‘risk averse,’ and thus they don’t want to say something that can’t be documented as being accurate.
That said, Bing AI’s reply to the question below led to a curious misreading of a linked report in its response. So, in a follow up, this was put to Bing AI. Note the reply, because it is telling and significant to anyone in manufactured housing trying to understand why our industry is underperforming for years on end during an affordable housing crisis.
> “Pardon me, Bing, but you misread the report you linked. It is about the Manufactured Housing Institute purportedly using tactics to mislead and palter, not the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform. Look again, and refine your response.”
The fact that Bing AI, when confronted with evidence of a mistake it may have made is capable of ‘looking again’ and then is willing to admit the error, apologize for the error, and then correct the error can be tedious process, but it is arguably quite useful. An example of that is the inquiry above, the history of which is linked here for accuracy, clarity, and the lessons learned. It is also a cautionary tale about blindly trusting any AI. MHProNews has done tests with other platform(s) mentioned by in the Productivity School’s recommendation. Bing AI is in our view the best we’ve tested so far. While apparent bias or error exists, nevertheless, when confronted with facts – sometimes repeatedly needed and with greater specificity, Bing AI may well finally correct itself and admit its error(s). Humans also make mistakes too. But human beings may not always be willing to admit their errors and may in some cases will double or triple down on a lie or misstatements, even when confronted with the evidence of the truth.
That said, segue back to and note the fascinating response from Bing AI.
I apologize for the confusion in my previous responses. You are correct that the article I linked to was about the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) and not the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR). I appreciate you bringing this to my attention.
That is arguably relevant to what will be considered about the several sources from the manufactured home industry in general, but also in relation to the exploration of TMHA/TRERC reporting. But before pivoting to TRERC/TMHA, let’s review and unpack what Bing AI said in the above about MHI. Why? Because it could be very useful to a range of possible readers.
In no particular order of importance, Bing AI said:
“I could not find any information that suggests that the MHARR has used paltering tactics or provided incorrect information.”
> “Bing, that’s more accurate and is useful. Thanks for the correction and admitting the prior errors. However, to further clarify, is it fair to say that there is more than one article and multiple sources that criticizes – directly and/or indirectly – the Manufactured Housing Institute? For instance, hasn’t Doug Ryan with CFED/Prosperity Now, officials with the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform, Marty Lavin, Samuel “Sam” Strommen with Knudson Law, Neal Haney with the Manufactured Housing Communities of Arizona, or Manufactured Housing Institute members like Frank Rolfe or Joanne Stevenson all examples of individuals and/or organization-linked sources that have similarly criticized the Manufactured Housing Institute, based on facts, history, and logically applied evidence?”
MHProNews hereby notes that in an inquiry that began with MHARR, because of glitches from a Bing AI response(s), ended up with quite a useful analysis of both MHARR and MHI. It was a hassle, but the hassle has a potentially useful, important, and enlightening result.
So once again, to sum up some up the useful information for anyone who wants to understand what is actually occurring in the manufactured home industry, the above exchanges with Bing AI will arguably be useful for this TRERC/TMHA portion of this report. But it will also be useful going forward for an array of other possible manufactured home industry related topics too.
Paltering, as well as what the Capital Research Center has aptly described as Deception and Misdirection, are regrettably all too common in our manufactured home profession. It is thus important as a trade publisher, applying the ethical and standards notions from the Society of Professional Journalism (SPJ) or the American Press Institute (API) to expose the pattern to encourage potential accountability.
The following was put to Bing AI about the monthly reports from TRERC and the TMHA.
“While some in the manufactured housing industry have cited the monthly update from the Texas Real Estate Research Center and Texas Manufactured Housing Association, is it fair to say that those reports have been critiqued for providing sentiments rather than hard data? And that those sentiments may at times demonstrably be contradicted by hard data?”
The specific process used to determine a topic and comments from TRERC are not known by MHProNews at this time. But MHProNews directly addressed the concerns noted above with TRERC. They responded by admitting that theirs is a sentiments index. Sentiments may or may not align with the facts.
TRERC said that they would attempt to clarify in future reports that what they are often reporting are ‘sentiments.’
Consider their closing remark in Part I, above: “TMHS respondents anticipate an acceleration of total new orders over the next six months, and they expressed general optimism generated by decreased uncertainty and an improved outlook.” Optimism is an emotion, attitude, or a sentiment. Uncertainty is feeling or a sentiment.
So, “an attitude toward something; regard; opinion. A mental feeling; emotion…” Those ‘feelings’ or ‘opinion’ may or may not align with the facts.
Specifically with respect to these TRERC reports in conjunction with MHI affiliated TMHA, are the following examples of reports that often reflect a de facto ‘paltering,’ even if it may not be intentional.
For instance, TRERC reported that about the MHI backed “CrossMods” initiative that “It’s Real.” True enough, several dozen Crossmods have been built in the past several years, so it is “real.” but as our fact check and analysis, like those linked below reflected, MHI branded and Clayton Homes back CrossMods have been failing for years on end in the marketplace. When perhaps a half-million plus HUD Code manufactured homes have been built during the ‘CrossMods era’ but perhaps fewer than 100 total have been built during that timeframe, that’s an embarrassment. That embarrassingly low production of the over-hyped CrossMods may explain why it is so difficult to get the hard data, which MHI surely knows the precise total built and sold, but opts not to publicly publish. That said, even paltering-posturing-happy MHI has admitted as much, though they phrased it differently. What MHI said in a letter to federal officials is that “developers are moving away from CrossMods.®”
Why didn’t TRERC and TMHA mention the various issues and controversies around CrossMods?
> “Can you find a specific or estimated number of CrossMod manufactured homes built in the U.S. since the Manufactured Housing Institute announced their plan for a so-called new class of manufactured homes they later rebranded as CrossMods?”
That noted, here below is a history of about a year of reports examined by MHProNews about TRERC. The first one that will be considered was from earlier this year (2.2023), there was a remark that the industry was ready for a rebound. What? Instead of a rebound, the hard data from MHARR and federally connected sources have reflected the point that manufactured housing production is in a year-over-year decline. Sentiments are whatever they are, but the facts are clear. Manufactured housing has been in a documented 11 months of production and shipments decline.
Facts are facts, and sentiments, like emotions or opinions, can be a dime a dozen and can be wildly misleading or inaccurate.
That said, that doesn’t mean that their reports have no value. If paltering is being employed, a remark may be ‘true’ in a certain way, but can still be misleading. By looking carefully at what is seemingly true, insights can be gleaned. That is what MHProNews has to at times do in order to discern what is accurate and what is not. To use a some common euphuisms, we do go into the weeds in order to sift out the wheat from the chaff.
Now note the above. In April 2023, TRERC-TMHA reported that production was at the lowest levels in a decade. But then glance back at Part I, where TRERC-TMHA said this.
“Elevated demand from other states paired with Texas retailer placements at the highest year-to-date total in more than ten years, which should lead to plenty of future orders,” said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. “The TMHS out-of-state shipments index has trended downward toward the no-change mark, but this suggests a stabilization at historically high levels.”
While that may be true in some technical or sentimental context, it seems on its face to be self-contradictory. To illustrate the following was asked from Bing AI.
> “Help me out with what looks like a logical fallacy or disconnect. In April 2023, the Texas Real Estate Center and the Texas Manufactured Housing Association said in their monthly report that that production was at the lowest levels in a decade.
But then in November 2023, that monthly report from the Texas Real Estate Center and the Texas Manufactured Housing Association said this.
“Elevated demand from other states paired with Texas retailer placements at the highest year-to-date total in more than ten years, which should lead to plenty of future orders,” said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. “The TMHS out-of-state shipments index has trended downward toward the no-change mark, but this suggests a stabilization at historically high levels.”
While that may be true in some technical or sentimental context, it seems on its face to be self-contradictory factually. Can you shed logical light on that please?”
The balance of the above went on to speculate on other ways that those remarks might be construed. Then note the TRERC remarks from Part I, above.
“The industry has responded to upstream improvements by expanding production,” said Wes Miller, senior research associate at the TRERC. “They are investing more into physical capital and are on a seven-month hiring spree as labor costs have normalized.”
So-called “expanding production” compared to – what and when?
Look again at the month-by-month shipments (which includes in state shipments as well as out-of-state shipments going into Texas). Shipments declined in February vs. January 2023. Shipments rose in March, and fell in April. Shipments rose in May and June, then fell sharply in July. Then shipments rose in August and then fell again in September.
Summing Up
Instead of providing a clear picture to manufactured housing industry professionals or others looking into manufactured housing, the manner of reporting from TRERC and the TMHA monthly statements – when carefully examined against themselves and other known facts – reflects several apparent contradictions.
While TRERC said that they would aim to clarify their reports following MHProNews’ previously raising similar concerns with them earlier this year, the problems associated with their reports seem to be ongoing. It takes time to fact check and clarify their problematic or erroneous reports. Nor can it be good for the reputation in MHVille for their reports to frequently have questionable to inaccurate information.
MHProNews plans to ask the TMHA and TRERC to respond to these concerns. We editorially encourage them anew to rely more on facts, provide those facts, and then do the balance of their reports in a manner that sheds light on an industry that is underperforming during an affordable housing crisis.
MHProNews plans to do a follow up based upon the respective responses of those two organizations. Stay tuned. ##
Part III – is our Daily Business News on MHProNews stock market recap which features our business-daily at-a-glance update of over 2 dozen manufactured housing industry stocks.
This segment of the Daily Business News on MHProNews is the recap of yesterday evening’s market report, so that investors can see at glance the type of topics may have influenced other investors. Thus, our format includes our signature left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines.
The macro market move graphics below provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities. Meaning, you can see ‘at a glance’ how manufactured housing connected firms do compared to other segments of the broader equities market.
In minutes a day readers can get a good sense of significant or major events while keeping up with the trends that are impacting manufactured housing connected investing.
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