George Allen Forecasts Manufactured Housing Industry Change and Future

Part IV: Manufactured Housing Industry Change and Looking Forward

Editor’s Note: This is the fourth of a four-part series of the exclusive interview George F. Allen gave MHMSM.com Industry in Focus Reporter Matthew J. Silver.

MHMSM: What have been the major changes in the industry you have witnessed in your 25+ years in the business? 

GFA: We’ve covered some of it. But it goes back to some of the trends, mainly the consolidation trend. But you have to understand, before 1990 there was not even a dearth of knowledge about operating statistics, or occupancy percentages, or any kind of numbers – it just did not exist. And the prominent players at the time did not want it to exist. They may not say that, but it’s true.

When I hung out my shingle as a consultant, I thought of what kind of statistics would be helpful to the industry. But my detractors were the very people I was trying to help. The attitude back in the 90s was, “Why document this information, and publicize it; it’s only going to attract investors.” People are only going to want to compete for this limited number of properties. It wasn’t until Sam Zell took MHCs public, and the Wall Street analysts asked, “What’s your occupancy, what’s your operating expense ratios?” Basically, what the companies claimed to do did not make the Wall Street guys happy because they had no norms to compare them to.

Then the major guys came to me because they wanted to go public, and started supporting me as an independent third-party researcher and writer. That changed the whole landscape. Other investors started showing up, and that made it a whole different ball game.

Some of that same attitude exists today, and it works in two ways:

1. I guarantee you in the next few months, I will get calls from people who want to know the numbers in the Allen Report, but they are the same people who refused to give me numbers when I was putting it together.

2. The other is, there are still areas that are totally unexplored. How much do you pay a community manager? Is it based on the size of the community? What’s the nature of the manager’s duties? Nobody wants to share. We’ve tried several times through MHI to survey these 500 portfolio people at national meetings, and no one wants to participate. They don’t want to reveal what they are paying, and they don’t want their managers to hear what other people are paying their managers. We are notoriously low pay for what we require. But they don’t participate in the HR surveys that they claim to want.

MHMSM: What are you going to do after you semi-retire this year?

GFA: I have a number of personal and family projects I want to be engaged in and enjoy. Not that I don’t enjoy what I’m doing now. The problem is I’m so passionate about the industry that it’s hard for me to pigeonhole my time to enjoy these other areas. I don’t plan to disappear entirely.

MHMSM: Do you have other speakers lined up for the International Roundtable later this year? Are you locked in on a location for this year’s Roundtable?

GFA: I’m working on that right now. I’m working on my speaker list and the location. Sept. 14-16 is what I’m targeting now. I always try to come up with some sort of a theme. I think it’s going to be, “The Past, Present, and Future of Landlease Communities.” I normally have one or two keynote speakers. But this time, if the three different entities I’m in negotiations with right now to sell my report, step up to the plate and buy sections of what I’m doing, they will come together at the Roundtable. They are looking at my Report from three different perspectives. I’m not going to identify them, but one is a national not-for-profit that’s looking at using certain things I do to continue to serve the portfolio owners from coast to coast. That’s the big picture. The second group is a for-profit that wants to serve the 85 percent of the small ‘mom and pop’s’ across the country. The third part of the puzzle could very well be a first time ever academic presence that wants to better serve the research and statistic gathering and publication requirements of both the manufactured housing industry and the land lease community asset class. I’m in discussion with all three of these entities.

It’s not just the report they’re looking at – it’s my newsletter, my database, various other reports I do. I think they could pick up what I’m doing and move ahead in their specialty areas. Nothing would please me more. And I think the three organizations could do a better job than just one person. That’s my cautiously optimistic view of what I would like to be able to market at the Roundtable this fall as being a turning point in the history of the asset class.

Thirty years ago, none of this existed. Today it exists in a sole proprietor fashion, but going forward, in 2012, it could be more encompassing, more efficient, and better serve all the community owners across the country. So, the plan is to bring these three to the Roundtable. Two of them have been there before. And even if we weren’t negotiating now, they would be there anyhow, but representing only much smaller parts of what they have been doing up to now. What I’m hoping is that the Roundtable might represent the coming together of all three of these entities, giving them the opportunity from the bully platform to say, “This is what we’re picking up from where George is leaving off.” The only thing I might have a problem with, is all three want me to continue to be involved. That could be a greater time commitment than I have now.

MHMSM: Do you think the industry as a whole is on an upswing, or will it just maintain this somewhat tepid – bumping bottom – atmosphere, with new home shipments hovering around the 50,000 home mark annually?

GFA: The school book answer is, “Of course I’m looking for a bright future for manufactured housing.” But the truth of the matter is, there won’t be a bright future for that half of the industry until third-party chattel financing returns. If the retailer could take the buyer by the hand and lead them to a Green Tree, say, and tell the customer that they can have a 650 score and we will underwrite the loan for your new home. Until that happens, and it’s not even on the horizon yet, we will be at 50,000 homes a year.

But I call it the ‘double dual’ industry. You have the factory and distribution side of the house that’s on the ropes. Then you have the real estate investment and development side of the house, the communities, smiling all the way to the bank. Yes, we have to take risks to make it work, but it’s a seller’s market. This is the only type of real estate investment you can be involved in that, if you are willing to take an extra risk, you can add value by reselling your homes on site and carrying your own mortgages.

MHMSM: If you had to do it over again, what might you do differently?

GFA: That’s a broad question. I could have been a much wealthier person concentrating on buying and selling more properties, than concentrating my energies on creating and developing all the resources I am now selling. Even if I get my dream price for this, I will have made far less than if I had bought and sold manufactured home communities as an investment. I have been very happy on the consulting side. It’s been more personally fulfilling.

MHMSM: Anything you want to add?

GFA: What is not widely known is that through most of that 30-year period of time I have been involved in the industry, there have been individuals involved with portfolios of manufactured home communities who have contributed significant financial support to what I’ve accomplished, who have by choice remained unidentified to this day. I feel they deserve a lot of credit that they’ve not received, and probably will never receive, at their preference. I’m happy with what I’ve accomplished; I just regret that they’re unsung heroes, to whom individuals and companies who own a land lease community in this country and in Canada owe this debt of gratitude, but will never be able to express it. It bothers me, because they made it possible for me to do what I am doing, with money and otherwise. I keep the communities as a separate business, but it could never have supported me in doing what the individuals did quietly, behind the scenes. That may change later in the summer. Stay tuned.

MHMSM: Thank you for your time.

Reporters note: GFA could have retired 20 years ago, but found the consulting work more satisfying than even a zillion dollars. # #

Click here to read Part I

Click here to read Part II

Click here to read Part III