In a post on their website entitled “How U.S. elections could impact multifamily real estate,” J.P. Morgan Chase said: “The upcoming election cycle could affect housing regulations, infrastructure spending and other legislation critical for multifamily housing” on 8.8.2024. While J.P. Morgan Chase may be better known for its involvement in the conventional housing side of the multifamily housing and commercial real estate industries, they are actively involved in originating loans for manufactured home communities (MHCs) too. For example: “JPMorgan Chase Originates $489M Loan for MHC Portfolio Deal” said Multi Housing News in a prior report about a deal with Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) National Communities Council (NCC) member Horizon Land Company, a firm spotlighted by the Private Equity Stakeholder Project (PESP). “Horizon Land Co. used the financing to acquire 93 manufactured home communities in a transaction valued at more than $740 million.” So, Jamie Dimon led JPMorgan Chase & Co. is actively involved in both sectors. Dimon is the Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, “a global financial services firm with assets of $3.2 trillion and operations worldwide,” per their website. MHProNews reported on Dimon’s involvement in the Davos meeting earlier this year of the World Economic Forum (WEF), where the billionaire ‘barely a Democrat’ was actively involved in the event and in media coverage.
Per that same post are the following items, which will be unpacked in an analysis in Part II below.
Part I – from J.P. Morgan Chase ‘How U.S. Elections Could Impact Multifamily Real Estate’
Key takeaways
- The results of the upcoming election cycle will influence fiscal and regulatory policies affecting commercial real estate.
- Because of legislators’ role in spending, the outcomes of Congressional contests are also important to consider.
- The results of local elections may be even more impactful, as they can influence city and state policies, such as zoning, tax incentives and building permits.
- Historically, the markets respond to the macroeconomic landscape, rather than the election itself.
- If either of the major political parties secures control of both Congress and the presidency, the administration could make sweeping changes. But under divided government, policies and spending that impact multifamily and commercial real estate could face political gridlock.
- The results of the upcoming election cycle will help determine future environmental policies, infrastructure spending and other legislation that could impact multifamily housingand commercial real estate.
- Minimal market impact
- Generally, individual elections have a limited impact on multifamily housing and the markets.
- “History tells us markets can get volatile around elections, but it’s usually temporary and related to the uncertainty,” said Ginger Chambless, Head of Research for Commercial Banking at JPMorgan Chase. “After the results, the direction of markets is more likely to be driven by the economic outlook and prevailing investor sentiment, rather than the election outcome itself—markets could rally simply because the election is behind us.”
- “Instability is what’s hard for investors to work through,” said Al Brooks, Head of Commercial Real Estate at JPMorgan Chase.
- Uncertainty tends to dissipate post-election, as there is typically greater clarity on the path forward.
- There are some instances where the market may react to the presidential race. For example, if one candidate establishes a clear lead in polling, investors, consumers and businesses may adjust their outlook and investing behavior.
Interest rates and optics in an election year
Interest rates and inflation may be top of mind for multifamily investors as election day approaches, but the Federal Reserve bases its decisions solely on economic factors, not political ones.
The independence of the Fed to manage monetary policy without regard to political considerations is fundamental. The Fed has consistently and repeatedly said its decision to adjust policy rates will be based on evidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward its long-term 2% average target to help maintain this independence and avoid any charges of partisanship.
The last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) before the election is September 18. The proximity to the election and recently published quarterly economic projections will add attention to the meeting. But even after September 18, rates could be volatile as the presumed outcome of the election could influence the future of inflation.
Potential housing regulation stability
While increased funding for multifamily housing is possible, it’s largely dependent on Congress. Regardless of the next president, however, it’s unlikely housing funding and policies will be rolled back.
“We’ve increasingly seen a frustration with the cost of housing across party lines,” said Nick Luettke, Associate Economist at Moody’s CRE.
While both parties want more affordable housing, they’re likely to take different approaches. If either party gains control over the House of Representatives, Senate and White House, housing policies could see significant changes.
It’s a different story with a divided government. “In that case, federal housing policies will likely remain the same, with the level of political polarization in Congress impacting commercial real estate policymaking more than the presidential election,” Luettke said.
The election and economy’s impact on infrastructure spending
“With either outcome, there will likely be continued federal investment via the Infrastructure and Jobs Act into roads, bridges, power and grid, passenger and freight rail, water infrastructure, housing, broadband, airports and more,” Chambless said.
It’s important to consider the role of Congress here. “Infrastructure spending will likely remain fairly stable should a split Congress and president be elected, with greater expansion or cuts being easier should either party successfully sweep,” Luettke said.
Aside from Congressional election outcomes, infrastructure spending often picks up during economic downturns in response to rising unemployment. So there’s also a possibility either administration could pour funding into infrastructure, depending on the economic landscape.
Such continued investment could benefit commercial real estate. Take modular housing, for example. “Modular construction’s factory-like approach really drives costs down,” Brooks said. “The negative is it’s extremely expensive to move modular housing.”
“Infrastructure spending is likely to depend more on macroeconomic health and whether deficit reduction or a stimulus is more necessary for a struggling labor market,” Luettke said.
Real estate and strategic supply chain spending
Luettke noted that infrastructure legislation related to national security and supporting supply chains is the most vulnerable to geopolitical developments. It’s also the most likely to be favored across administrations and congressional outcomes.
Both potential administrations appear to be acting tough with China on trade. Homeshoring and nearshoring are likely to continue regardless of election results. Both efforts can help commercial real estate and multifamily reduce development timelines and costs.
“In the last eight years, conventional wisdom toward free-trade agreements has nearly disappeared,” Luettke said. “Instead, supply chain choices have increasingly been viewed as part of broader strategic relationships combining domestic protectionism of key industries with security,” he said. Both potential administrations are likely to continue this approach.
“There could be a number of impacts to global supply chains, including the prioritization of domestic investment, implementation of trade tariffs, and rebalanced and renegotiated trading relationships,” Chambless said. ##
Part II – Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary
1) There are several aspects of the above that could attract agreement or disagreement. For instance: “the Federal Reserve bases its decisions solely on economic factors, not political ones” is debatable. For instance, Queen’s University said 10.5.2023 that: “Interest rates: Monetary policy is always political.” Both the right-leaning Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and the left-leaning New York Times (NYT) have done articles in 2024 that address the concerns over the Fed being politicized during election seasons. BankRate denied that the Fed is free from politics: “The Federal Reserve was designed to be independent from politics, but the president may have more influence over the central bank than you” think.
2) As a planned report will unpack, the Biden-Harris White House has rolled out more housing related ‘efforts’ in the last 90 days of the election, including provisions related to manufactured housing. But more specifically, as MHProNews recently reported, the manufactured home community (MHC) sector has become a ‘priority’ for MHI. So, while someone could quibble over specifics claimed by J.P. Morgan Chase on several of the items in their post cited above, what is arguably easy to support is their claim that: “The upcoming election cycle could affect housing regulations, infrastructure spending and other legislation critical for multifamily housing.” Per Chase’s post, as cited above, are the following notable items.
-
Because of legislators’ role in spending, the outcomes of Congressional contests are also important to consider.
-
The results of local elections may be even more impactful, as they can influence city and state policies, such as zoning, tax incentives and building permits.
3) MHProNews previously reported on Dimon and ‘barely a Democrat” to his election year advice to his fellow billionaires and corporate moguls to ‘tone down that anti-MAGA talk.’
4) Those points noted, that elections matter, and thus voting matters, are apt aspects made by Chase’s post shown in Part I above. That much is accurate. Elections impact consumers and businesses of all sizes. For those reasons, long before JP Morgan Chase indicated it was a good idea to be engaged in elections and follow those events, MHProNews’ 2024 election coverage has been ongoing, as is illustrated by the articles linked below.
5) As an interesting aside to some who follow the MHC sector of MHVille, the deal that JP Morgan Chase financed for Horizon Land included the following, per Multi Housing News. Note their phrasing of the lack of new supply for manufactured home communities, and see our latest report on another prominent MHI-NCC member ELS, linked below.
Horizon Land Co. used the financing to acquire 93 manufactured home communities in a transaction valued at more than $740 million.
Horizon Land Co. has spent $743.3 million to buy a portfolio of manufactured housing communities, a self storage property and RV pads across the country. The company financed the acquisition through a JPMorgan Chase-originated $488.6 million first lien acquisition loan, an additional $40 million mezzanine financing and $258.8 million of sponsor equity.
The portfolio comprises 93 manufactured housing communities totaling 11,129 pads that include:
- 10,897 manufactured housing pads
- 194 RV pads
- 38 site-built homes
- a self storage facility with 136 units.
The collection spans 13 states and 29 markets—including Dallas; St. Louis; Austin, Texas; and Omaha, Neb. The assets were completed between 1920 and 2000.
Given the growing demand for affordable housing and a significant lack of new supply, the manufactured housing sector is experiencing a surge in investor interest. …”
Part III
Our Daily Business News on MHProNews stock market recap which features our business-daily at-a-glance update of over 2 dozen manufactured housing industry stocks.
NOTICE: following the TPG deal with CAPREIT, TPG has been added to our tracked stocks list below.
This segment of the Daily Business News on MHProNews is the recap of yesterday evening’s market report at the closing bell, so that investors can see-at-glance the type of topics may have influenced other investors. Our format includes our signature left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines for a more balanced report.
The macro market moves graphics below provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities. Meaning, you can see ‘at a glance’ how manufactured housing connected firms do compared to other segments of the broader equities market.
- In minutes a day, readers can get a good sense of significant or major events while keeping up with the trends that may be impacting manufactured housing connected investing.
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – 8.13.2024
- A key inflation gauge showed price hikes slowed last month. But economic jitters remain
- Elon Musk and Donald Trump have been sued by the United Auto Workers union
- UAW files federal labor charges against Donald Trump and Elon Musk after threatening workers on X interview
- US’ athletes celebrate during the closing ceremony of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games at the Stade de France, in Saint-Denis, in the outskirts of Paris, on August 11, 2024. (Photo by Oli SCARFF / AFP) (Photo by OLI SCARFF/AFP via Getty Images)
- Paris Olympics ratings soar 82% over Tokyo Games, delivering big boost to NBC’s Peacock streamer
- Big Lots is closing hundreds of stores across the US, including this location in Hallandale Beach, Florida.
- Big Lots is closing hundreds of stores after warning it could go out of business
- Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol (left) will be Starbucks’ new chairman and CEO next month. The coffee chain’s current CEO, Laxman Narasimhan (right), is stepping down immediately.
- Starbucks’ CEO is out. Chipotle’s Brian Niccol is taking over
- A Boeing 787 Dreamliner, operated by Qatar Airways, during the opening day of the Farnborough International Airshow in July. The aviation summit is typically a platform for planemakers to rack up multibillion-dollar deals, and it gave Boeing a rare win over rival Airbus.
- Boeing scores rare sales win over Airbus, despite ongoing safety issues
- A Home Depot store in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, Aug. 12, 2024. Home Depot Inc. is scheduled to release earnings figures on August 13. Photographer: Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images
- Home Depot issues a warning about the economy
- King Charles banknotes sell for 12 times their value as collectors scramble for early editions
- The interview was billed as “a conversation” between X owner Elon Musk and former US President Donald Trump.
- Elon Musk gave a new reason why X had another meltdown introducing a Republican presidential candidate
- iHOP’s pumpkin spice menu items.
- Is pumpkin spice a summer flavor? IHOP and Krispy Kreme are the latest retailers to say yes
- Israel’s credit rating cut again as conflicts drag on
- New York Times editorial board will no longer endorse candidates in New York races
- Biggest shakeup in a century set to hit real estate agents this week: Here’s how they’re preparing
- The era of freeloading is officially over
- Blink Fitness files for bankruptcy and may close some gyms
- Chuck E. Cheese targets inflation-weary families with a bargain subscription program
- Trump Media’s massive bet could fix its biggest problem: It brings in almost no money
- Gautam Adani’s empire hit by fresh allegations against India’s market regulator
- Feeling saucy? McDonald’s France jokes about pulling classic curry sauce after Steph Curry leads US over France
- Lack of worker heat protections despite rising temperatures leave patchwork of guidelines, put workers in danger
- Inflation comes for your oysters
- Hosting the Olympics has become financially untenable, economists say
- A Michigan man missed winning the lottery jackpot by a single number. The next day, he won big
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Headlines from right-of-center Newsmax – 8.13.2024
- Dems Woo Uncommitted Delegates to Avoid Clash
- Democrats are attempting to prevent an embarrassing internal party clash inside next week’s National Convention, even as they are expecting demonstrators on the streets of Chicago against the U.S. role in the Israel-Hamas war, The New York Times reported on Tuesday. [Full Story]
- Israel at War
- Blinken OKs Sale to Israel of $20B in Military Equipment
- Iran: Only Gaza Cease-Fire Can Delay Retaliation
- IDF Probing Hamas Claims of Hostage Execution
- Blinken Postpones Middle East Trip
- Israeli Forces Kill Man Throwing Rocks at Soldiers in West Bank
- Israel’s PM, Defense Minister Spar on War Objectives
- Israel Strives to Make Own One-Ton Bombs
- West Tells Iran to ‘Stand Down’ on Israel Attack Threats
- Hamas: One Israeli Hostage Killed, Two ‘Seriously Wounded’
- Newsmax TV
- Bar Owner: Gov. Walz Destroyed My Business
- Lara Trump: Harris-Walz Has Nothing to ‘Tout’
- Dalia al-Aqidi: Squad Failing to Represent Constituents
- Huckabee: ‘Inflation Has Gut-Punched’ Average Family’
- Diaz-Balart: Latino Voters See Through Harris
- Fred Fleitz: Pope Francis ‘Should Not Go to China’
- John Bolton: Iran’s Image at Stake With Israel Attack
- Toensing: Trump $100M DOJ Lawsuit a ‘Very Good Case’
- Napolitano: Trump Raid Wrong, Not Unlawful
- Newsfront
- UAW Files Labor Charges Against Trump, Musk Over Labor Intimidation
- The United Auto Workers Union said on Tuesday it has filed charges with the National Labor Relations Board against Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk over attempts to threaten and intimidate workers. The action came after Musk and Trump held a two-hour conversation on…… [Full Story]
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- UK PM Starmer to Iran: War Not in Anyone’s Interest
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- Biden Targets Tumors With $150M for Cancer Moonshot
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