Besides tips from whistleblowers and tipsters, there are also insights that come to MHProNews from corporate managers, association leadership and others that shed light on issues of importance to manufactured housing professionals and investors.
Some of that information is on the record, as was the case with fascinating research from Marcus and Millichap.
More such information is provided in this evening courtesy of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Housing Center. That’s different, but not unlike the ongoing and manufactured housing specific insights provided by the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR).
Put differently, there is simply no other sources in manufactured housing that has more evidence-based insights, tips, data and analysis than MHProNews. Other websites may be pretty looking, but perhaps that’s why MHProNews is the documented most-read trade media in manufactured housing and has been for years.
Our featured focus this evening will be fresh reports on manufactured housing specific insights and how it relates to broader mainstream housing data. That’s found below the left-right headline news and standard business nightly fare.
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business
- Meat plants in crisis
- A Tyson Fresh Meats plant stands in Waterloo, Iowa, date not known. On Friday, April 17, 2020, more than a dozen Iowa elected officials asked Tyson to close the pork processing plant because of the spread of the coronavirus among its workforce of nearly 3,000 people. (Jeff Reinitz/The Courier/AP)
- Processors warn of shortages. Here’s why they’re getting hit so hard
- LIVE UPDATES Alphabet sales jump 13%; Starbucks posts 10% sales decline worldwide
- LIVE DATA Track what stocks are being battered by coronavirus — and which are getting a boost
- White House economist: Unemployment could hit 20% by June
- GDP: America is facing its first economic downturn since 2014
- Earnings: Southwest posts first loss in 11 years
- Banks: HSBC halts plans to cut 35,000 jobs after profits plunge nearly 50%
- Retirement: The Fed’s low rates will punish people who save
- Analysis: Why there might not be a depression
- British Airways: The airline may need to cut 12,000 jobs
- MORE TOP STORIES
- NATIONAL HARBOR, MD – SEPTEMBER 19: Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, founder of space venture Blue Origin and owner of The Washington Post, participates in an event hosted by the Air Force Association September 19, 2018 in National Harbor, Maryland. Bezos talked about innovating in large organizations as well as staying on the cutting edge in the space industry. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
- Opinion: Billionaires are getting even richer from the pandemic. Enough is enough
- Ford warns its losses are growing
- Harley-Davidson to conserve cash in midst of Covid-19 crisis
- Personal loans can help in a crunch. But read this before you apply
- Need a response urgently? Don’t email. And more rules for WFH communication
- Here’s when you should Slack, email or call an employee
- What happens when your employer cuts your pay?
- ‘Trolls World Tour’ is a digital success, but it doesn’t spell the end of movie theaters
- MARKETS
- SMALL BUSINESS LOANS
- Rica Sunga-Kwan, owner of Churn Urban Creamery, wears a mask while interviewed at the shop in San Francisco, Thursday, April 23, 2020. Churn, which had closed days before San Francisco's shelter in place orders for coronavirus concerns, reopened on April 1, for online orders and curbside pickup, and created an online store to sell supplies such as flour, sugar, toilet paper and other items they had for their ice cream business to customers. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
- More small business loans are on the way. Here’s what you need to know
- Lakers return $4.6 million coronavirus relief loan
- Sweetgreen gives back $10 million stimulus loan
- Shake Shack returns emergency loan to the US
- These businesses won’t survive without federal money
- THE DOCTOR WILL SEE YOU NOW
- The coronavirus pandemic is changing the way people go to the doctor
- Is the new normal video chatting with your doctor?
- Doctors use VR to learn how to treat coronavirus
- Amazon Echos connect doctors and Covid-19 patients
- Doctors use TikTok to share coronavirus news
Headlines from right-of-center Fox Business
- CORONAVIRUS
- How billionaires are cashing in on the coronavirus crisis
- As the coronavirus pandemic clobbers the U.S. economy, leaving nearly one in six workers without a job, some of the wealthiest Americans have actually seen their massive fortunes grow.
- Tech problems hobble small biz loan relaunch amid ‘unprecedented demand’
- MARKETS
- Dow drops in last-minute sell off as dismal earnings season heats up
- Oil tankers fill up as coronavirus crushes crude demand
- MARKETS
- Starbucks earnings report shows extent of coronavirus battle damage
- Business closures surge by 200% as coronavirus hammers US economy, study finds
- POLITICS
- ‘Reopen NC’ protesters still gathering after organizer falls ill with coronavirus
- OPINION
- No emergency fund in coronavirus crisis? Here’s what to do now
- JOIN THE ELITES
- REAL ESTATE
- Home on Florida’s Fisher Island set for no-reserve auction
- POMP AND CIRCUMSTANCE
- LIFESTYLE
- Oprah to headline Facebook, Instagram graduation event
- PANDEMIC NEW DEAL
- MONEY
- AOC, Warren to unveil coronavirus bill to protect small businesses
- THE RENTERS ARE SPENT
- REAL ESTATE
- Big NYC landlords feeling coronavirus effects on rent
- WHAT LOCK DOWN?
- MONEY
- IRS takes massive action in response to America’s ‘urgent’ tax needs
- SAVE OUR SHIPS
- LIFESTYLE
- Coast Guard: Duck boat changes needed after Missouri sinking
- BET ON IT
- LIFESTYLE
- Inside Las Vegas casino’s grand plan to reopen soon
- PLENTY OF FISH
- RETAIL
- Coronavirus pantry-loading created Goldfish shortage, says Campbell Soup
- ROLLED GOLD NO MORE
- RETAIL
- Shortages easing on coronavirus-hit toilet paper
- YOU’RE SAFE
- MLB
- MLB to allow teams to alter ticket policies, issue refunds: Reports
- WIPED OUT
- HEALTHCARE
- Popular medicine sells out of stores after virus treatment study revealed
- PAID TO DO NOTHING?
- MONEY
- Bump in unemployment pay puts many Americans in strange predicament
- OUTLAW STYLE
- LIFESTYLE
- Texas salon owner defies coronavirus restrictions, risks losing license
- ALMS FOR THE RICH
- LIFESTYLE
- Florida’s Fisher Island Club, with $250K membership fee, applies for PPP loan
- NO FORGIVENESS
- MONEY
- Mnuchin says businesses receiving this much in virus relief will be audited
- LIFESTYLE
- Coronavirus relief lets coffee house rehire 120 workers with disabilities
- ECONOMY
- Trump predicts ‘incredibly strong’ fourth-quarter growth as US faces first downturn in years
- TECHNOLOGY
- YouTube starting to fact check coronavirus misinformation in search results
- MEDIA
- Google’s video game system to host ‘Star Wars,’ ‘FIFA,’ ‘Madden NFL’
- MARKETS
- Michael Milken says millions of virus vaccine doses could be ready this year
- Meet the banker who is advising Cuomo on how to reopen New York
- BUSINESS LEADERS
- Meet the banker who is advising Cuomo on how to reopen New York
- LIFESTYLE
- Felicity Huffman’s daughter admitted to college after retaking SATs
- WATCH: Thunderbirds, Blue Angels honor health workers with NYC flyovers
- TECHNOLOGY
- Senator pushes DOJ to open criminal investigation into Amazon
- MONEY
- Why Trump’s ‘hospital without walls’ strategy is godsend in coronavirus fight
- MONEY
- Varney: Democrats committing coronavirus abuse
- LIFESTYLE
- These markets seeing growth during coronavirus pandemic
- LIFESTYLE
- Coronavirus pushes cities to cap third-party delivery fees
- MARKETS
- Coronavirus pandemic exposes gaps in travel insurance coverage
- MARKETS
- FedEx pitches coronavirus-hit small businesses with shipping, e-commerce discounts
- LIFESTYLE
- Lockdown no match for strip club with drive-thru dances, burlesque delivery
- HEALTH CARE TECH
- FDA commissioner ‘very optimistic’ about this coronavirus treatment
- SEE IT: UVC light could be ‘game changer’ in virus fight, researchers say
- TECH
- SEE IT: UVC light could be ‘game changer’ in virus fight, researchers say
- MONEY
- Coronavirus stimulus ‘Phase 4’ could exceed $1T, include negative payroll tax
10 Market Indicator Closing Summaries – Yahoo Finance Closing Tickers on MHProNews…
Featured Focus – Where Business, Politics and Investing Can Meet
“New [HUD Code manufactured home credit] application[s] are down but not as much as we expected. I’m more concerned with the unemployment numbers and what that could do to everyone’s delinquency and repo numbers. If unemployment stays at 15% + we will all see challenges. Of course that will also affect new applications and approvals as you cannot buy a home without a job. Bottom line is we need to get the country restarted ASAP. Hope this helps.”
Another industry insider – both of whom are Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) members – has told MHProNews that they expect about “a 20-30 percent drop” in March 2020 sales/shipments/production. The hard official federal data on March 2020 should be available next week.
Those manufactured home specific concerns noted, it sets the stage for the broader housing data provided by AEI.
Edward Pinto, Director of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Housing Center sent the following information to MHProNews today.
“AEI Housing Center Director of Research Tobias Peter provided the following analysis on how the COVID-19 pandemic may impact individual home builders…”
“…As the latest AEI Flash Housing Market Indicator (HMI) report showed, purchase loan rate lock activity for all homes (new and existing) continued to decline. For the week of April 20 (week 17), purchase loan rate lock activity was 17% below that for week 17 in 2019. However, activity may be down as much as 28% after taking into account that activity in January and February 2020 (weeks 1-8) was running 16% ahead of the same period in 2019.”
“Given the likelihood of home price declines, lenders have adopted minimum credit score overlays on FHA and VA loans, with a minimum of 640 being a common floor. These overlays are prudent, given the increased risk of future default as this group is likely to be most affected by job loss and declining home prices. Since the onset of the COVID-19 era, rate lock activity for this group has plummeted by more than 55%, while for everyone else, rate lock activity has declined only 13%.”
AEI told MHProNews earlier today that using MBA and other data, they estimate 4 million loans already in forbearance as of April 27.
- A well-connected industry source has told MHProNews that 21st Mortgage is bracing for an influx of new defaults and repossessions.
Returning to AEI, “The MBA just released its mortgage loan forbearance report through April 19, 2020. Using data from other sources, we have made projections through the end of April, 2020.”
Of these 4.0 million loans, Fannie and Freddie account for 1.8 million and Ginnie for 1.1 million. This total will climb to 4.2 million by the end of April, with the overall forbearance rate standing at 7.6%, the Fannie/Freddie rate standing at 5.9%, and the Ginnie Mae rate standing at 10.5% by April 27.”
After analyzing the home sales data by guarantor type and credit score bucket for the nation’s largest builders, a couple trends stand out. LGI by far appears to be the builder most exposed. n 2019:Q4, almost a fifth of institutionally-financed sales went to FHA and VA borrowers with credit score below 640. On the other hand Toll Brothers, a luxury builder with virtually no exposure to the at-risk group, appears much better situated to weather the current storm. For Toll however, a relatively high exposure to the jumbo market could create problems down the road as the Flash HMI report also finds that the non-conforming market could be in retreat.
After connecting the dots, investors should be alert to differentiating builders during this COVID-19 crisis by evaluating the different market segments they are serving.”
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Related Reports:
Breaking! Legacy Housing Insider Says Announcement Pending on Controversial SBA PPP Loan
Manufactured Housing Industry Investments Connected Closing Equities Tickers
Some of these firms invest in manufactured housing, or are otherwise connected, but may do other forms of investing or business activities too.
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- NOTE: The chart below includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry lender
- NOTE: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
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Spring 2020…
Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory built housing industry suppliers.
· LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others.
· AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here.
Enjoy these ‘blast from the past’ comments.
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Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHLivingNews.com.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship and earned numerous awards in history and in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position, and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
http://latonykovach.com Connect on LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/latonykovach
