I just reviewed a housing news item for our Daily Business News blog. In the next decade, we need 16 million new housing units in the U.S. So, even though we are in the midst of this great foreclosure and housing finance debacle, we are on the brink of a boom driven by what every truly sound economist wants…
…necessity! Market forces!
There are indeed a lot of seemingly complex signs, so ‘reading the tea leaves’ of manufactured housing news may seem to be a daunting task.
In fact, with a little time and perspective, things can come into sharper focus.
There has been and will be a shakedown and shake out. Some will survive, and then thrive, as many industry pros predict in the Manufactured Housing Revolution.
There will be more consolidations. It may be like Cavco – Fleetwood – Palm Harbor, or it may look like ELS and Hometown America, etc.
We see Dodd-Frank as a dagger in the heart of below $78,000. BTW, I’m told that number is being double-checked by members of the MH Lending Dodd-Frank task force. That said, based on my understanding of the formula for arriving at the number $78,000, that number is likely to stand. You can see that covered in my two last Masthead blog posts. If you missed it, click here for the last one, which links to the prior on this topic.
We see interest and motivation for a national image campaign.
Many – including this writer – believe it should have national coverage and some common elements, but that such a PR/marketing campaign should have localized (state, regional) market focus. All business is done locally! The homes sold in Texas are not those sold in the Pacific Northwest, or like those in FL or Chicagoland, etc.
We see interest in aligning.
This industry today is a puzzle with a lot of moving pieces. It is no longer a simple picture. But that doesn’t mean there are no profits to be made. There are. Some are making them. Some are selling out. Some are closing or winding down. Where will you be in this mix?
What will you say to yourself in 5 or 10 years? Your plans and actions now will determine that answer.
Over a year ago, you may have read – Out of the ashes, Phoenix rising. That is how things happen in the market place. Death is followed by a kind of new resurrection. A flame-charred forest is followed by new growth. The horse and buggy business essentially died. But the automobile business is still with us today. How phones looked a century ago is radically different than the hand-held Smart Phones of today.
No other form of permanent housing can hit the range of manufactured housing.
As the Harvard study brief in our factory built housing Daily Business News stated, there is a lot of latent housing demand. But there are a lot of builders gone for good.
So those who remain, those left standing – they will reap the benefits of what is to come.
Marty Lavin and Al Cole have shared some key points. Marty is right, we need a change in our business model; the old one is broken. Al Cole is right. We have to ‘partner’ with lenders. We have to team up with our home owners, too.
You and I need good information now more than ever. You can find that here daily, with Erin Patla’s News at Noon podcasts of Matthew Silver’s Daily Industry Business News. With our editor Catherine Frenzel rounding out our news team, they bring you what no one else online serving manufactured, modular and pre-fab home building does.
Our new website look and navigation is coming, to make it easier to keep you informed.
A new day is dawning, just as sure as the darkest of nights is followed by the day.
But are you and your associates going to be a part of it?
Will you rise – Phoenix-like – out of the ashes of what has burned and died?
Will you engage with your association(s) in the political action needed to navigate these difficult times?
Will you market, sell and manage your way to business success?
Some are working with government, as Spencer Roane and David Roden are doing with FEMA and their state emergency management organization (GEMA).
Some are working at their own captive finance programs, or are partnering with lenders.
Where there is vision, will and planning, followed by sound execution, there is a way.
Stay Informed. Stay focused. Stay inspired. If you need help, line your solutions up.
Heads in the sand have never worked in any Industry. Those who prepare, plan and adapt are going to be the winners tomorrow. Those who do not plan, prepare and execute look back, and say, what happened?
Times change. Technology changes. But solid values, honest work, business wisdom…
….those are timeless.
What will you do? What say you? # #
