A private comment came in, one of dozens in the last 16 hours since Ross Kinzler's thought provoking Industry Voices guest column was posted Tuesday afternoon. The guts of the comment:
which is more likely?
1) we build # 9 million
2) we build the last HUD Code home
Enough said.
Ross' article is called, “The Lost Decade, It isn't Over Until We Say it Is”.jpg)
Certainly, the topic isn't new.
GMHA's Jay Hamilton sounded off on a similar theme last year.
Yes, Ross' is another call to action. But it's clear that Ross' spin is different.
Here on the Masthead, regular readers know we have confidence in our industry and its future. But its not without reason that economist Chris Fisher from Ducker Worldwide in his video interview with us stressed the need to invest in our future if we are going to tap our full potential.
Among the private comments in was from a HUD Code builder, who stated that;
-
60,000 new annual home shipments are too low,
-
they have to build to multiple codes to keep things going
-
they are thus not fully tapping the efficiencies possible
It was a long, fact based and tacit agreement with Ross. Others have been too.
Another private commentary basically tagged associations for not doing more to promote the MH Industry.
My reply to that is the fact that:
-
some associations are trying – Tim Williams led the Ohio association certainly in their recent and popular public home
show, -
some states do internet based support efforts for their members etc..
-
and let's be fair, some state associations have been hanging on, having cut staff, just etc. to survive.
But doesn't that brief overview make Jay Hamilton's point? Don't we fail to invest enough in our future?
What farmer fails to plant seeds just because his previous crop was poor? A poor harvest is precisely the motivation to worker harder for a much better harvest next year!
Let's take the macro view anew:
-
We are part of a 1 trillion dollar annual U.S. housing market.
-
We have perhaps 8% or so of new home starts,
-
when the 2 decade rolling average is more like 20%.
-
Yes, we are “recovering.”
-
Yes, we should celebrate the 4 years of steady growth.
But are we settling for a creeping growth only? Or are we willing to do more to capture the billions that would love to invest in manufactured housing?
Napkin Commentary
Another savvy exec at Indy pulled me aside and took out a napkin. He drew two bar graphs. One at the left that was higher was identified as the site
-built home buyer, the right/lower was the typical MH home buyer.
The exec explained that when some event caused the bottom part of the site-built buyers to no longer qualify for a conventional house, they can – and some do – turn to upper end manufactured housing.
But when someone falls off the last tier of the traditional manufactured home buyer, they no longer qualified for anything. They fall off the bottom rung of affordable housing.
Part of the point was that we can't target only the least economically viable customers. Noble to serve them and needed, yes, but that also makes us too vulnerable to market fluctuations.
We are thus wise to “escape up,” to “grow up” or whatever euphemism you want to put there.
Achieving Growth is not an Option
Jay Hamilton's reply last night to Ross' column yesterday afternoon is interesting Needless to say, Jay wants to see our industry grow. His main question seems to be, how rapidly can we grow? That's a worthy topic by itself.
But the point is, growth is really not an option. What this downturn proved is that we are a resistant industry! Those deep roots have served us well.
That said, in nature, you are either growing, or dying. Isn't that true in business too?
We are growing in manufactured housing. But the fact is that we ought to be growing faster – and we could with the proper vision accelerate a sound, sustainable growth.
Of course I'm voting for the 9 millionth HUD, but let's look ahead to how we can get to the 10, 11 and 12 millionth manufactured home produced in a more rapid and enduring fashion.
The fearful idea of the last HUD Code home ought to make community operators and all others who are in the industry think twice about the need for a greater sense of urgency on Ross' topic ##
(HUD factory, farming and tree roots image credits: WikiCommons)
L. A. 'Tony' Kovach ManufacturedHomeLivingNews.com | MHProNews.com | Business and Public Marketing & Ads: B2B | B2C Websites, Contract Marketing & Sales Training, Consulting, Speaking: MHC-MD.com | LATonyKovach.com | Office 863-213-4090 Connect on LinkedIN: http://www.linkedin.com/in/latonykovach
