Pithy quotations from great minds have the power to cut-to-the-chase and may force us to think in new ways. Let’s look at this quote from George Bernard Shaw, and apply it to manufactured housing professionals.
We need to celebrate all those who have survived and/or jumped and have advanced in Manufactured Housing since the Great Recession of 2008.
While we can talk about 4 years of shipment increases, the reality is that consolations and closures will continue if we don’t move past the 100,000 new home shipment levels a year. Can we as an industry do that?
Of course, as the latest U.S. housing starts suggest that there are over a million new starts compared to only 68,000 +/- new HUD Code manufactured homes (HUDs) expected to ship from production centers by the end of the year.
FYI, new modular shipments are lower still than new HUDs, perhaps 14,000 +/- new homes for 2014.
Doom and Gloom vs. Opportunities
Be it:
- Dodd-Frank, SAFE, CFPB
- HUD
- DOE
- State local regulators
a variety of challenges are poised our way. The commentary this month by Ron D’Ambra on the value of the HUD Code to manufactured housing is interesting in this regard. If you’ve not already checked out Ron’s thoughtful article, please do so.
Tyler Craddock’s 5 Points is another take on possible paths ahead for MH.
Another respected state association exec made private and public comments about the fact that half the states are still seeing declines in new MH home shipments. Must it be so?
Scott Robert’s is one of those rising stars in the MHC world who has put his money where his mouth is, and they are investing in making their communities desirably destinations that has lead to rising occupancy through new MH sales. The paragraph above finds its reply with Scott Robert’s and those like him! Scott is not alone in finding ways to advance even in the midst of the challenges, Zig Ziglar would be proud of Scott, since he and his team are turning lemons into lemonade.
We’ve worked with operations that invested far more modest sums than Scott has, and have seen handsome returns on their marketing and sales investments.
Georgia’s Jay Hamilton says we should put 5% into marketing.
Back to George Bernard Shaw’s point. Those who fail to plan for growth, are de facto planning to fail. When you tread water to survive, it is done with the belief that sooner or later, you will move forward. Failure to advance means there will be a retreat, which is what half the states are still experiencing in MH.
We must either:
- accept the crumbs left to us and accept slow, no growth or even negative growth,
- OR invest in the future, knowing we can grow by doing so.
For those who never know those glory days, our Industry once shipped over 300,000 homes a year in the 1990s. Pre-HUD we exceeded 500,000 new homes for two years.
We must look at the broader housing market – as well as your own dynamics – and see what the path ahead is for your location and business, and the industry as a collective.
We believe a wise course of action is a two track plan.
- Do all that you can for your business to advance. Don’t accept the status quo.
- Then simultaneously work with your association and/or buyers group as a parallel path to advance.
Those who will do the above will be far more likely to prosper, those who don’t…well…the opposite would be true. The price of failure is higher than the investment in success.
“Take care to get what you like or you will be forced to like what you get.” – George Bernard Shaw ##
