We will start another 'smorgasbord' of topics in this column, beginning with using Fear in marketing, and moving on to other industry impacting topics.
Let's briefly define the principle of Occam's Razor: that the simplest explanation is often the correct one.
In marketing and sales, we want to have a compelling message. Most professionals will concur that decision making going into a sale is a matter of comparisons, weighing this option vs. that other one. Another principle of marketing and selling is this: “the confused mind says no.”
With this brief intro, let's jump in.
Fear
In our periodic series in the Cutting Edge blog on the 5 Motivators in Marketing and Sales, we covered the topic of Fear. Does fear work as a motivator? Oh, yes. Don't believe it? Look at the presidential election results, not to mention many Senate, House, state or county races. Think of political campaigns today as a marketing and sales closing (vote getting) machine. The take aways from campaigns are many for those who view them through the lends of marketing and public relations (PR).
This is not a commentary on the 'right or wrong' – ie: morality – of how fear was used by any particular group in their respective campaigns. It is simple a statement of fact.
Right or wrong, fear motivates (or de-motivates). The implications and import for manufactured and other factory built housing are many. Once you are done with this column, please see the article on Fear, linked here, if you haven't read it lately.
Shock at Team Romney
CBS News reported from sources inside the Romney camp that:
"We went into the evening confident we had a good path to victory," said one senior adviser. "I don't think there was one person who saw this coming."
"There's nothing worse than when you think you're going to win, and you don't," said another adviser. "It was like a sucker punch."
Romney's personal assistant, “Garrett Jackson, called his counterpart on Mr. Obama's staff, Marvin Nicholson. "Is your boss available?" Jackson asked.
Romney was stoic as he talked to the president, an aide said, but his wife Ann cried. Running mate Paul Ryan seemed genuinely shocked, the adviser said. Ryan's wife Janna also was shaken and cried softly.
Morning After
My Morning After feature article for November was written and published about a week prior to Tuesday's voting. In it you'll see the three camps described in what would be the logical post election outcome. Indeed, that is what we have today.
The calls and messages that have come in here have fallen into exactly those 3 groups. Some are elated, some despondent, some could care less either way.
The group that makes the most sense are those who accept what is, and are now working to make the best of it, while learning the lessons from this experience.
History Lesson
History is a marvelous teacher, when we are willing to sit at her feet and allow ourselves to learn from her wisdom.
There are commentators today who are again predicting a major shake up of the “dying” GOP political party brand. Some believe that the Democrats have the land firmly in their grip. Cheers or hand ringing is taking place depending on if you are following the Democratic or Republican camps.
But was this so lop sided? The facts say otherwise, and our Fumbled column underscores the point. Let's see why.
In the Capital reports the results (with votes still being tallied) as Barack Obama garnering 60, 652,238 and Mitt Romney with 57,810,407, or 118,462,645 total votes between the two major candidates. That means, Romney had 48.8% of the vote, while Obama won between the two of them 51.2% of the vote. That's less than the margin of error for most polls.
The objective reality is that the electorate was closely split. Republicans gained at the state level, picking up at least one gubernatorial seat, while Democrats held the White House gained in DC, but still failed to capture the House. Incumbency proved potent in this election cycle, as in most others. Democrats will claim their 'White House and Senate Mandates, Republicans will claim their House and Governorships mandates, with more Republican governors now than in years.
ABC News reports that:
“It was a major milestone for the Republican party. Not only was it the first time North Carolina had elected a Republican governor since 1988, it also gave the GOP 30 statehouse seats, the highest number for either party in 12 years. The Democrats now have 19 governor seats. One state, Rhode Island, has an independent governor. “
GOTV
Get Out The Vote, or GOTV as some have dubbed it, was lacking in both camps, but more so on the Repubican side. It looks like some 14 million fewer ballots where cast overall. President Obama won, but with perhaps 8 million fewer votes than in 2008. While Romney did better in many ways that John McCain did, he actually garnered about 2 million fewer votes than McCain in 2008. Both sides suffered declines, the Republican decline was less so, but still fell short of victory.
The point is that negative campaign apparently suppressed the vote. Team Obama was better at this, but both groups suffered. Can either side claim a mandate once the facts are studied? No.
Under Reported
What went under-reported in the mainstream media pre-election is the fact that 17 of the 20 top performing states economically are lead by Republicans. This was a message that Romney and the Republicans ought to have pounded right along side their pro-growth economic plan. The president's campaign could say that Romney wanted to return to the failed policies of the past, but the obvious response was, 'wait a minute! These policies are working right now, in the USA and in states that Republicans control, like Ohio!'
We pointed out early in this election cycle and from time to time reminded industry pros of the contrast between California and Texas; the former being an economically troubled state while the later is often rated as the most business friendly and well run state in the nation.
But the problem with the Republican and ProR SuperPacs was the fact that they didn't convey the compelling message clearly enough. It would be unfair to say that Romney and Republicans didn't have a plan or message, what is more accurate is that the message had to be refined with Scott Walker clarity and delivery.
Occam's razor and common sense marketing suggests that the Romney message didn't miss completely, but it missed by enough to account for his defeat. The very factors that made the first debate a Romney win – clarity on his proposal and clear counter-arguments to parry the thrusts of the president – were lacking enough after the debates to cause the loss that we witnessed Tuesday night.
This is not an indictment of the proposals, it is an indictment of the fine tuning and delivery of their message. Republicans would be mistaken to decide that they need to become Democrats. All of the facts provide sufficient reasons to ask how third parties and ballot access can be fostered that broadens the discussion and thus the engagement of the electorate.
Grand Bargain?
One astute observer opined that while many Republicans pledged not to raise taxes, that in fact taxes will go up automatically when the Bush era tax cuts that Congress renewed with Obama expire in a matter of weeks. There is not need for Republicans to vote 'for' a tax hike.
So if the parties actually do reach across the aisle, there could be a grand bargain that spares our nation the fiscal cliff. Will it happen?
While tax hikes are as illogical now as they were when the president said the same in 2010, what is also certain is that we don't need another debt ceiling and fiscal/economic crisis. Hopefully a legacy concerned president will pivot to the center and a reasonable bargain that provides the building blocks of sound economics vs. pork and rewards to favored groups will result.
A savvy industry leader emailed that: “clarity from the election can be a big benefit. The capital markets hate uncertainty more than anything…once the landscape is defined, you can ascertain how to operate within it.”
MHI's detailed post election analysis is linked here.
The election means we need to pick up the phone and call our Congressman and Senators, see Dick Jennison's column here.
Looking ahead
The need for the industry to pull together is bigger than ever. Business building associations and events, goal and solution oriented trade publishing and you are a powerful combination.
It would be great to see you this weekend in Iowa. I look forward to seeing many inLouisville for their Money Tree and in Tunica as well. ##
PS: Check our many Exclusive and Red Hot Featured Articles for November and see the
other new stories and 'Purely Political' cartoons at MHLivingNews.com too.
L. A. "Tony" Kovach
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Whether you think you can or whether you think you can't, you're right. – Henry Ford
