While new home sales fell, other housing market data has been positive recently: the NAR reports existing home sales rose five percent in Sept., the NAHB’s Housing Market Index gained three points, and the Commerce Dept. reports housing starts increased 6.5 percent in Sept.
“The number is to a large extent inexplicable,” says David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide. His theory: “New home sales tend to be more volatile than any other component of housing, and housing itself is a volatile economic component. I don’t think this number is telling us that housing is about to go in the tank. I think we’re seeing statistical volatility.”
Most economists do not expect a sudden departure from the slowly rebounding housing market, especially given the increasing employment statistics and the low interest rate. However, if the interest rates rise—as the Fed assures us they will–and the unemployment numbers grow, the housing recovery will likely stall. ##
(Photo credit: Associated Press/Paul Sakuma)