In a marketing presentation and related that MHProNews/MHLivingNews may explore in the near term, New Jersey based Edison Mobile Estates and Carteret Mobile Park marketing director Maria Dolan said, “It’s not your grandma’s trailer anymore.” True. “People are living in miniscule apartments paying $2,400 a month and when they buy our homes, plus the lot fee, many of them are paying $1,200 a month,” said Dolan. “We are definitely more affordable than the luxury apartments.” Quite so. Dolan Homes is one of dozens of manufactured housing industry organizations that sends emails to MHProNews/MHLivingNews, and that’s not counting press releases from governmental entities, mainstream or industry-focused media, or nonprofits in or beyond the ranks of manufactured housing industry professionals. A source connected to the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) recently told MHProNews that the industry is literally producing its best homes ever. Which is why it is curious and should be troubling to manufactured home industry advocates and investors that manufactured housing production, while rising again, is at the current pace still projected to be lower than the industry collectively achieved in 2022 production. It is a significantly smaller profession than it was in the first two years when Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway first entered the industry in 2002 and 2003. This facts with expert analysis will reveal that the artificially smaller MHVille production is dramatically smaller industry than in 1998, despite population growth. Details on that and more in Part III.
Part I is the production data provided to MHProNews by MHARR for July 2024.
Part II is an IBTS generated report on production from the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) website that will be shown below.
Part III is additional information with more MHProNews analysis and commentary.
Part IV is the Daily Business News on MHProNews market report.
Part I
JULY 2024 STATISTICS SHOW HEALTHY
PRODUCTION INCREASE FOR THE HUD CODE INDUSTRY
Washington, D.C., September 4, 2024 – The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) reports that according to official statistics compiled on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), HUD Code manufactured housing industry year-over-year production increased in July 2024. Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 7,896 new homes in July 2024, a 28.7% increase over the 6,134 new HUD Code homes produced in July 2023. Cumulative production for 2024 now totals 59,061 homes, an 18% increase over the 50,022 HUD Code homes produced over the same period in 2023.
A further analysis of the official industry statistics shows that the top ten shipment states from January 2023 — with monthly, cumulative, current reporting year (2024) and prior year (2023) shipments per category as indicated — are:
The July 2024 statistics result in no changes to the cumulative top-ten list.
The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform is a Washington, D.C.- based national trade association representing the views and interests of independent producers of federally-regulated manufactured housing.
— 30 —
Part II – IBTS Data via Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) Website.
MHProNews note: the double “the” following this table is in the original.
8/23/2024
Q2 2024 Top 10 Production and Market Share by Corporation
Rank | Corp. Manufacturer | Number of Production Lines | Total Homes Produced | Number of Homes | ||
2nd Quarter 4/24 – 6/24 | Year to Date 1/24 – 6/24 | 2nd Quarter 4/24 – 6/24 | Year to Date 1/24 – 6/24 | |||
% Share | % Share | # Homes | # Homes | |||
1 | Clayton Homes | 40 | 49.17% | 49.42% | 13,243 | 25,341 |
2 | Skyline Champion Corp. | 41 | 22.16% | 21.20% | 5,968 | 10,870 |
3 | Cavco Industries, Inc. | 25 | 14.14% | 13.86% | 3,807 | 7,106 |
4 | Jessup Housing | 2 | 2.09% | 2.10% | 563 | 1,079 |
5 | Live Oak Homes | 3 | 2.01% | 2.08% | 542 | 1,067 |
6 | Legacy Housing | 3 | 1.35% | 1.46% | 363 | 751 |
7 | American Homestar Inc. | 2 | 1.20% | 1.31% | 322 | 670 |
8 | Single Plant Manufacturer | 2 | 1.13% | 1.10% | 305 | 562 |
9 | Single Plant Manufacturer | 1 | 1.08% | 1.06% | 292 | 545 |
10 | Single Plant Manufacturer | 1 | 0.71% | 0.74% | 191 | 378 |
Others | 29 | 4.96% | 5.67% | 1,337 | 2,906 | |
Total | 149 | 100% | 100% | 26,933 | 51,275 |
REPRODUCTION OF THE THE ABOVE STATISTICS MUST CARRY AN ATTRIBUTION TO IBTS, INC.
*Note work on this data is still in progress by the plants and IPIAs.
Part III – Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary
1) According to MHI endorsed MHVillage’s MHInsider, the following is part of their so-called “What Is The State of the Manufactured Housing Industry?” which carries this subheading.
2024 Updated Industry Facts and Figures
a) That post on MHInsider said the following.
What are the top manufactured home builders by market share?
- Clayton Homes — 48.98 percent
- Skyline Champion — 17.76 percent
- Cavco Industries — 13.04 percent
- Hamilton Homebuilder 2.91 percent
- Live Oak Homes — 2.38 percent
- Legacy Homes — 2.22 percent
- Jessup Housing — 1.87 percent
- American Home Star — 1.39 percent
- Adventure — 1.39 percent
- Jacobsen — 0.8 percent
b) Above that claimed data is the following.
Manufactured Housing Production
How many manufactured homes were built during 2023?
Thirty-six U.S. manufactured home builders operating from 148 plants across the country produced 89,169 housing units during 2023. Shipment levels decreased slightly with rising interest rates in 2023 but home sales have been steady through the year, with the market exhibit signs of growth.
So, it is unclear based solely on the information in that relatively short MHInsider post if the above is 2023 or 2024 data.
2) MHProNews has demonstrated several times that MHInsider, or for that matter, MHI itself, has published information that is misleading or incorrect. That analysis has been supported by AI powered Copilot cross checks. So, looking at that list above should be considered with several grains of salt. Providing some prior examples.
3) Based on the MHARR data, the total production year to date through July 2024 was 59061. Dividing that by the number of months year-to-date looks like this: 59061/7 = 8,437.2857. So annualizing that production for the year, if the current production pace held through December would yield the following. 84,37.2857 x 12 = 101,247.4284.
4) MHI has a page that includes this ‘heat map’ that shows which states have a HUD Code manufactured home production center or factory.
5) Left-leaning Axios, citing U.S. Census Bureau data, produced this sobering heat map about a survey conducted during the same time frame for the latest manufactured housing industry production report. Note that even in Washington, D.C., one of the most affluent, parts of the country, almost 1 in 5 are feeling economic stress.
6) The single biggest expense for most Americans is housing. With record ‘peacetime’ federal spending, poverty and homelessness under the Biden-Harris regime has increased. That’s according to federal and other sources, including HUD, which of course is the primary federal regulatory for HUD Code manufactured housing.
7) “Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman (VT-D) said homelessness is the canary in the coal mine for our economic, moral, and political policies (6.12.2023).” That quote above is also found in a new report on the affordable housing crisis and manufactured housing found on the Patch at this link here.
HUD and MHI are in sometimes different, sometimes similar ways exposing their own failures for those with an eye for details. Having been duly lashed again about failure to produce industry news, despite their claiming to do so, MHI has produced (for them) a flurry of posts on their website. Among their news items for September 2024 is the one dated 9.3.2024 under this headline.
Vice President Harris Announces Plan for First 100 Days, Congressman Plans to Introduce Supporting Bill
Pardon me? If MHI posted an article on what Harris’ housing plan is, where is a similar post on what the Trump-Vance housing plan is? But one must keep in mind that a prominent member of the MHI PAC is Nathan Smith, a prior MHI chairman. Smith is a self-declared never-Trumper. As MHProNews noted in the prior report below, Warren Buffett is another well-known backer of Democratic candidates and causes.
8) MHI’s text under that headline “Vice President Harris Announces Plan for First 100 Days, Congressman Plans to Introduce Supporting Bill” says the following. Detail minded and well informed manufactured housing industry professionals and advocates should note what MHI didn’t say, as well as what MHI did state.
As part of her campaign for president, Vice President Kamala Harris released several elements of her plan for her first 100 days in office. These are priorities that she believes will lower costs for American families. Major topics of the plan include housing and home ownership, medical debt and drug prices, grocery costs, and taxes.
The Vice President’s housing priorities include boosting construction by creating tax incentives for builders of starter homes sold to first-time homebuyers, expanding tax incentives for businesses that build affordable rental housing, a $40 billion innovation fund for local governments to expand construction, and reducing the regulatory burden on construction. The plan includes $25,000 in downpayment support for 400,000 home buyers whose parents do not own a home and a $10,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers. To kick support her plan, Rep. Jimmy Gomez (CA-34) plans to introduce a bill focused on tax incentives to build starter homes for first-time buyers and tax credits for first-time home buyers.
MHI will work to ensure that manufactured housing is included in all the supportive measures should they be considered in Congress.
The plan also mentions supporting the passage of bills that target rent and investor ownership of rental units. Should that occur, MHI will continue to provide clear, data-driven information about for-profit ownership and the economic consequences of rent control to encourage policymakers to make well informed decisions that will benefit homeowners long-term.
Entirely missing from MHI’s remarks are any mention of the Duty to Serve Manufactured Housing (DTS) made federal law by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA).
Also missing from MHI’s remarks are any mention of the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 (a.k.a.: MHIA, MHIA 2000, 2000 Reform Act, 2000 Reform Law) and its important “enhanced preemption” provision. For years, MHI has postured support for those laws and their key manufactured housing provisions. But where in practice is their push to put those laws into effect in a manner that would boost manufactured home production back to and beyond its historic levels? What almost a person of influence, lady Lesli Gooch, Ph.D., (pardon me, what are her pronouns?)
9) Wow! MHI is “disappointed.” That was 3.5 years ago that Gooch expressed disappointment during the early days of the Biden-Harris regime. Since that disappointment, millions of Americans have been thrust into financial distress. Who says? The U.S. Census Bureau, Axios, and HUD in its annual report on homelessness to Congress. A key element of the solution, says MHARR, is clear cut. Robustly enforce existing laws.
10) While MHI ‘stands ready’ to provide data to the federal government that NAR, NAHB, and others in conventional housing can do better and faster while advocating for their professions, MHI fails once more to even mention already enacted legislation favorable to manufactured housing that could boost industry production in a robust fashion. Who says? Besides MHI’s prior CEOs, MHARR, an array of pro-consumer nonprofits, and others cited by MHProNews, there are also fact-checks by left-leaning Google’s AI powered Gemini and left-leaning Bing’s AI powered Copilot.
11) It is often lonely to be MHProNews/MHLivingNews in this respect. Who else has provided the industry with the following facts and figures that reveals the authentic trends that reveals the “State of the Manufactured Housing Industry” in 2024? That said, these fact-packed reports with analysis have drawn the documented largest crowd in MHVille trade media, dwarfing MHI and others too. Apparently, fluff and eye candy will only get you so far?
Table
Year | Production |
---|---|
1995 | 344,930 |
1996 | 363,345 |
1997 | 353,686 |
1998 | 373,143 |
1999 | 348,075 |
2000 | 250,366 |
2001 | 193,120 |
2002 | 165,489 |
2003 | 130,815 |
2004 | 130,748 |
2005 | 146,881 |
2006 | 117,373 |
2007 | 95,752 |
2008 | 81,457 |
2009 | 49,683 |
2010 | 50,056 |
2011 | 51,618 |
2012 | 54,881 |
2013 | 60,228 |
2014 | 64,334 |
2015 | 70,544 |
2016 | 81,136 |
2017 | 92,902 |
2018 | 96,555 |
2019 | 94,615 |
2020 | 94,390 |
2021 | 105,772 |
2022 | 112,882 |
2023 | 89,169 |
12) Copilot has mocked MHI in this fashion.
On a more serious but still troubling note, Copilot said that MHI’s communication methods were “Orwellian,” and could be described as a “lie,” “false,” and “misleading.”
13) While MHI meets, hands out awards, attempts to honor itself and their hand-picked leaders, tens of millions of Americans are struggling to make ends meet. So, MHI is going to spotlight Harris’ housing plan, after the Biden-Harris pick for HUD Secretary – Marcia Fudge – snubbed her nose at MHI and the industry refusing to implement the MHIA and enhanced preemption properly?
14) Eye-candy ‘heat maps,’ self-serving ‘awards’ and ‘recognition,’ meetings that have as a subtle aim the goal of fostering the impression of professionalism that leads to consolidation, because their efforts have obviously failed to do the important work of actually accomplishing something measurable. Namely, organic growth in production. The data in Part I and Part III #11 proves that point.
15) As litigation often involving members of MHI and/or MHI linked state associations mount, MHI has been busy trying to recruit a new meeting director. Uh huh. Shrewd. That new MHI meetings director job post will surely get the job done for MHVille in D.C. and state capitals, won’t it?
16) Two production trends graphics and the following quotes help tell the true and troubling tale of manufactured housing in the 21st century.
17) Most Americans believe that “the system is rigged.” They believe it is rigged in favor of the well connected, wealthy, and powerful. The manufactured home industry has been an important missing piece of the puzzle for the affordable housing crisis. If housing were more affordable, the economic pressures felt by large portions of the population would be mitigated. But what does that matter to the huge conglomerates that are rather visible in the manufactured housing industry? Isn’t it apparent that those conglomerates like the status quo? Didn’t Warren Buffett tell Kevin Clayton he could get whatever capital he needed or wanted to get the job done? Isn’t it obvious that the status quo, at least for now, is what the powers that be desire? Didn’t MHI member Frank Rolfe say that there is no serious desire to solve the affordable housing crisis? Don’t forget, to Buffett, the common man that is put out of work is just “roadkill.”
18) Behind the fox’s smile are sharp teeth. The industry is steadily consolidating, and heat maps and periodic statements about considering the latest housing policy proposal advanced by Democrats are clearly not getting production back to their historic potential. That is the core fact that needs to be kept in mind. Every industry has Key Performance Indicators (KPI). Production is one of those. Profits would be higher, said MHI members Sam and Eugene Landy, if tens of thousands of new developments were being pursued.
19) Maybe MHI, from the perspective of the insiders who have rigged the game in favor of consolidation vs. organic growth for now, is betting that Harris-Walz and the Democrats that are supported by Buffett and so many of the billionaire class will win in 2024. They might be right. But there are indications that Harris and Walz could lose the electoral college in 2024, based on current polls and trends.
20) Meaning, MHI could be betting wrong by seemingly favoring Democrats once more. MHI had White House access during the Trump years. Did they serious press for enhanced preemption while HUD was being operated by Secretary Ben Carson? Apparently not. There is no evidence, Copilot has said, that Carson ever used those words. Letters are not always read by those whom they are sent to, as your junk mail pile proves. But either way, MHI failed to achieve what they say on paper that they want. Follow the money trail. Follow the facts. Follow the trends. Pay more attention to those details than whatever heat maps, infographics, or other razzle dazzle eye candy MHI want to try next. As the magicians’ hands are in motion, untold thousands of pockets are being picked.
21) Current and now former lifelong Democrats have said that the party has become the party of the wealthy and powerful and that they have abandoned their roots and base constituency.
22) With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.), former higher profile Democratic lawmaker Tulsi Gabbard (HI-D), and self-described moderate Democrat Elon Musk have all come down on the side of Trump-Vance vs. Harris-Walz. In about 60 days, we will know if the MHI strategy in favor of Democrats will pay off or not. Yes, their MHI PAC supports members of both major parties. But what have they done with that paid for support? The MHI PAC leaders, et al, are happy it seems, to slip Republicans a few bucks while they obviously hope that Democrats will win the White House and get control of Congress again. They may be right. But they may be wrong.
23) With all their money, their media, their big tech, the bias, and the election is still a tossup? A well-connected industry insider has told MHProNews that Harris-Walz may win, but it will be a narrow electoral college win, and that will only happen with some cheating. But if Trump-Vance wins, that source said it will be by a wide electoral college margin.
24) Time will tell. The big debate between Harris and Trump is supposed to be next week. Stay tuned. And more important, vote wisely, and take others to the polls with you that will also vote wisely. We will soon know if enough Americans are awakening and acting, or not.
25) The industry no longer produces trailer houses. It has been said by MHARR that the industry is producing its best homes ever. Nevertheless, the facts are clear. Production of new HUD Code manufactured housing, while up relative to 2023, is still only a small fraction of what occurred during the peak of the mobile home era. The production is also lower now than before the enactment of MHIA. The KPI of production is a key metric that we at MHProNews and our MHLivingNews sister site will hammer away at until MHI’s leaders are either awash in investigations and litigation that clean up the mess associated with Arlington. Or we will press those pesky facts until the often MHI-linked ‘leaders’ of the industry begin to seriously focus on and achieve the product’s true potential in terms of millions of happy customers and millions of more manufactured homes being produced. We’ll keep shining a light because it is proven that there are times when the squeaky wheel is what is necessary to root out corruption and wrongdoing in a rigged system.
It has been said that no one covers the manufactured home industry like we do. Who said?
Charles “Chet” Murphree at Deer Valley, we still think about you and miss you. A tip of the hat to Chet and other colleagues now passed on to their great reward.
The market segment of today’s report and analysis is up next. ##
Part IV
Our Daily Business News on MHProNews stock market recap which features our business-daily at-a-glance update of over 2 dozen manufactured housing industry stocks.
NOTICE: following the TPG deal with CAPREIT, TPG has been added to our tracked stocks list below.
This segment of the Daily Business News on MHProNews is the recap of yesterday evening’s market report at the closing bell, so that investors can see-at-glance the type of topics may have influenced other investors. Our format includes our signature left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines for a more balanced report.
The macro market moves graphics below provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities. Meaning, you can see ‘at a glance’ how manufactured housing connected firms do compared to other segments of the broader equities market.
- In minutes a day, readers can get a good sense of significant or major events while keeping up with the trends that may be impacting manufactured housing connected investing.
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – 9.4.2024
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- Chipotle and Spirit Halloween are launching a costume collection
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- Police gather at Apalachee High School outside of Atlanta after a shooting there Wednesday.
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- Newsmax TV
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- Caroline Glick: ‘Significant Number’ of Jews Will Vote Republican
- Hoenlein: Iran’s Proxies Real Target- Democracies in Israel, US
- Grenell: US Must Learn From Europe on Illegals
- Newsfront
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