‘Output Building’ But Texas Real Estate Research Center and Texas Manufactured Housing Association Say What’s in Store for 2024 in Manufactured Home Industry-Facts/Analysis; plus MHVille Markets Update

OutputBuildingButTexasRealEstateResearchCenterAndTexasManufacturedHousingAssociationSayWhatsInStoreFor2024InManufacturedHomeIndustryFactsAnalysisPlusMHVilleMarketsUpdateMHProNews

The purpose of analytical journalism is to ‘connect the dots’ that a typical news report may not provide. When the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) released its latest monthly report on 12.13.2023, MHProNews made the decision to hang back a bit and see if any others in MHVille trade media would just published that press release ‘as is.’ Sure enough, that’s happened. Without the context from fact checks and news analysis provided by MHProNews, how trustworthy is the ‘straight’ information from TRERC and the Texas Manufactured Housing Association’s (TMHA) monthly report? This article will explore that in Part II, following what TRERC and the TMHA provided information provided in Part I. One day after mainstream stocks rallied to a new high, on Friday, most manufactured housing industry connected equities fell. That’s covered in the graphical highlights that can be grasped either in seconds or mere minutes of reading in Part III.

Part III also sheds light on Parts I and II, which is among the reasons why the evolution of reporting and analysis on MHProNews is what it is today. Affordable housing is demonstrably in crisis. Companies like Cavco Industries (CVCO) are quite right about that point.

It is readers like you and others up and down the chain of command at for- or non-profit operations of all sizes in the manufactured home profession, along side public officials, investors, researchers and others that makes us the apparently largest and most read trade media in all of manufactured housing. As the holiday season is here, let’s simply take a moment to say ‘thank you’ for making and keeping us the runaway #1. Bing AI thinks it could be because of our expertise. We think it is because of team work and the core motivations. That said, let’s dive into the TRERC/TMHA report.

 

Part I

Texas housing manufacturers preparing to ramp up activity in 2024 

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – The state’s housing manufacturers expressed optimism heading into 2024, prompting a stretch of payroll expansions and capital expenditures, according to the November edition of the Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS).

“Housing manufacturers have increased hiring activity for eight consecutive months,” said Wes Miller, senior research associate at the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) at Texas A&M University. “Payroll expansions accelerated in November, probably as plant managers attempt to onboard and train new employees before the spring selling season. There’s also been an uptick in labor supply that has moderated wage growth across the industry.”

Additional manpower is necessary for production to keep pace with steady sales activity.

“Manufacturers have been slowly building up their output of homes, starting from 2014 production levels in January to now running in line with where they were before the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. “The TMHS indicates that new orders were a little softer in November, but a majority of respondents are expecting increases over the next six months, and retailer inventories are dramatically lower than they were one year ago.”

However, idiosyncratic supply disruptions may limit capacity usage as demand strengthens.

“Housing manufacturers’ supply chain volatility is a bit of a puzzle,” said TRERC Research Economist Harold Hunt, Ph.D. “This is the second survey increase in disruptions in the past three months. Diesel fuel prices have dropped 29 percent from their June 2022 peak. Container shipping rates have decreased even more dramatically from their September 2021 high.”

While the TMHS supply chain disruptions index has fluctuated widely since September, manufacturers reiterated their expectations of stability heading into 2024.

“The major barrier to goods shipments has been a 40 to 50 percent reduction in ships passing through the Panama Canal,” said Hunt. “It is unknown, however, how much this bottleneck is affecting manufactured housing production.”

ABOUT TRERC
The Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University (TRERC) is the nation’s largest publicly funded organization devoted to real estate research. Created by the state legislature in 1971 to meet the data and knowledge sharing needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, legislators, and the public, the Center creates public content, including digital and print documents, publications, and multiple format videos which are available at the Center’s website…

ABOUT THE SURVEY
This monthly sentiment survey gauges current conditions and expectations surrounding Texas’ manufactured housing industry. All members of the Texas Manufactured Housing Association with manufacturing facilities in the state are invited to participate, and the survey panel represents 89 percent of HUD-code homes produced in Texas. The survey was created by the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University, who administers it and calculates the responses.  ##

Part II – Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary

There is a case to be made that the public has become somewhat wiser when it comes to what is called mainstream ‘news’ or what Gallup called “mass media.” To better understand the macro-trends regarding trust in media before diving into sifting the wheat from the chaff at TRERC and TMHA’s monthly survey is the following from Gallup.

According to the Gallup survey organization on 10.19.2023: “Media Confidence in U.S. Matches 2016 Record Low.” Their snapshot said the following.

QuoteMarksLeftSideSTORY HIGHLIGHTS

  • 32% have a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in media’s news reporting
  • New high of 39% have no confidence at all [in mainstream news], compared with 27% in 2016
  • Democrats’ trust is down 12 points since last year; lowest since 2016

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GallupTrustInMassMediaTrustInNewsOct2023ManufacturedHomeProNewsMHProNews
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YoungerDemocratsIndependentsDistrustNewsReportsMoreRepublicansDoubtNewsReportsALotGallupManufacturedHomeProNewsMHProNews
Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report and others on MHProNews can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. For example, in some browsers/devices you click the image and select ‘open in a new window.’ After clicking that selection you click the image in the open window to expand the image to a larger size. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts.

 

Despite the data above, some media outlets earn public trust over time by consistently being accurate and telling the truth without favor to powerful interest groups.

To illustrate that point, Bing AI was asked the following.

> “Gallup reported that trust in media is down per an Oct 2023 survey report. But there has been some research that reveals that individual media that has a good track record for accuracy and correct details does better in earning public trust, correct?”

BingsAIchatAnswerImage-MHProNewsYou are correct that Gallup reported a decline in trust in media in October 2023. According to the report, only 32% of the population reports having “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of confidence that the media reports the news in a full, fair and accurate way 1However, it is also true that research has shown that individual media outlets that have a good track record for accuracy and correct details tend to earn more public trust 2.

It is important to note that trust in media is a complex issue and can be influenced by a variety of factors, including political affiliation, age, and education level 1. Therefore, it is difficult to make generalizations about the public’s trust in media as a whole.

1Axios 2: Pew Research Center

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