Lumber prices are ‘collapsing’ as conventional site-builder confidence continues to fall “for the twelfth straight month.” That’s per the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and media outlets that include WND and ZeroHedge. Manufactured housing fits into this picture too, but some of that insight must be drawn by inferences. Why? That will be the focus of our additional information with more MHProNews analysis and commentary segment, as multiple contacts with a law firm probing the manufactured home industry pointed to a report that opened with these words. “Manufactured housing is the largest source of unsubsidized affordable housing in the US, but the production of manufactured homes has fallen from more than fifty percent of single‐family housing starts in the mid‐70s to under ten percent today.” That same November 2022 third-party research document said “…during two decades of a growing [U.S.] housing shortage, to distort competition closer to the inefficient monopoly outcome.” Those remarks merit a closer look, because the manufactured housing market limitations are being caused in part by ‘distorted competition’ which is the “during two decades of a growing housing shortage, to distort competition closer to the “inefficient monopoly outcome.” As this pro-manufactured housing, pro-consumer, and pro-white hat business practices platform and MHLivingNews have uniquely revealed in recent years, the steady monopolization of manufactured housing has ripple effects. The Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) and their attorneys have allowed to stand largely unchallenged several evidence-based concerns about their performance and the statements of several of their publicly traded key members and how that relates to evidence-based claims of oligopoly-style monopolizing consolidation. Market distortions are not limited to manufactured housing, as the Biden White House Fact sheet on the harmful effects of consolidation aptly reflects. Consolidation into fewer hands is an increasing trend in several aspects of the U.S. economy.
A Manufactured Housing Executive Council (MHEC) member informed MHProNews the impact that consolidation was having on manufactured housing. That MHEC source, tied to an MHI affiliated state association, specifically said Clayton Homes was part of the picture.
With that background, here is a brief report from the WND NewsCenter to MHProNews on the ‘collapse’ of lumber prices. More information and then the Daily Business News on MHProNews business daily look at the manufactured housing industry connected equities will round out this article.
MONEY
FEARS OF THE FUTURE
Lumber prices collapse as homebuilder sentiment falters
Dramatic 72% decline in cost
By WND News Services Published December 22, 2022 at 3:10pm
(ZeroHedge) Lumber peaked at $1,336 per thousand board feet in late February but has settled at around $380 this week, representing a dramatic 72% decline in prices, primarily due to elevated mortgage rates, slowing housing activity, waning builder confidence, and overall mounting macroeconomic headwinds.
The plunge in lumber prices is no surprise as builder confidence for newly-built single-family homes posted its 12th consecutive month of declines in December, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Confidence is at its lowest reading since mid-2012.
Besides dismal homebuilder sentiment, housing starts and building permits for November also showed deterioration in the housing industry. The number of housing starts (SAAR) is at the lowest since June 2020. … ##
The article links to ZeroHedge for the balance of thejr report and graphics.
Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary
The following tweets from the NAHB add color to the report above and the continuation of the data that follows.
Sales of existing homes fell 7.7% in November, according to @nardotrealtor. The annualized pace was 4.09 million units, down 35.4% year over year, marking the tenth straight month of declines. https://t.co/UzBc8RRGo9 | #realestate #economy #housing
— NAHB (@NAHBhome) December 21, 2022
NAHB CEO Jerry Howard was on @BloombergTV this morning to discuss current conditions for home building and why it might not be until 2024 when we see a turnaround. https://t.co/pHmoaeM0mb | #realestate #economy
— NAHB (@NAHBhome) December 21, 2022
NAHB CEO Jerry Howard joined Yahoo Finance this morning to discuss today’s housing starts and permits numbers what 2023 might bring to home building. #economy #realestate #housingmarket https://t.co/aBiVufD8Hf
— NAHB (@NAHBhome) December 20, 2022
Nov single-family starts (828k) down 4.1% in Nov, 32.1% lower than a year ago and down 9.4% YTD. HMI down for 12 months. For 4 months builders have been completing more single-family homes than start construction. Lowest multifamily permit reading in more than a year. @NAHBhome
— Robert Dietz (@dietz_econ) December 20, 2022
Total housing start fell just 0.5% in November to an annual rate of 1.427 million, 16.4% below November 2021. Single-family home starts fell 4.1% to an 828,000 annual rate. Permits dropped last month, with total permits 22.4% lower than a year ago. | #realestate #housing #economy pic.twitter.com/y4nU3O4n4c
— NAHB (@NAHBhome) December 20, 2022
12th straight month of decline for @NAHBhome / @WellsFargo Housing Market Index, falling 2 points to a level of 31 in Dec. The measure for future sales expectations registered its first increase since April. 62% of builders used incentives in last month. https://t.co/eq6ovX5PxO
— Robert Dietz (@dietz_econ) December 19, 2022
Home builder confidence dropped two points to a reading of 31 in the December NAHB/@WellsFargo Housing Market Index, the lowest confidence reading since mid-2012 except for early pandemic months. The HMI declined every month of 2022. https://t.co/MJ5WzEFJpq | #realestate #housing
— NAHB (@NAHBhome) December 19, 2022
The cost of building materials fell 0.3% in November following declines of 0.5% and 0.1% in September and October, respectively, in the latest Producer Price Index (PPI). The index has decreased five of six months for the first time since 2015. https://t.co/9RH54EUVZL | #economy
— NAHB (@NAHBhome) December 14, 2022
By contrast to the NAHB’s robust engagement on Twitter, despite the numbers of staff at the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), they apparently can’t seem to find the time to tweet since September-October of 2020. Why is that? Who on the MHI board are holding the staff and their day-by-day work to account for their productivity and if they are generating any measurable accomplishments? What happened to their respective fiduciary responsibilities to “all segments” of the manufactured housing industry?
Those manufactured housing focused questions asked, and against that evidence-based backdrop, the following insights from ZeroHedge bring the new housing market into further focus.
From the ZeroHedge report linked here and referenced above by WND, are the following graphic illustrations provided in this order.
As NAHB noted, new housing starts and building permits are down.
This data could, if MHI were operating properly and per their own stated aims and claims, mean a boom for the manufactured housing industry. But this housing recession is instead being used by MHI to claim that the industry has historically dropped during a recession. According to MHI, the following.
The drop in lumber is a simple supply and demand function. It is akin to the dropping fuel costs, which is also caused in part by a drop in fuel demand.
These factors – lower costs on fuel, lumber, and other housing production needs – could help more marginal and other buyers qualify for a new manufactured home, given that so many are priced out by rising interest rates and other inflationary pressures. But instead of making a case to sell more manufactured homes, MHI is providing to the industry their latest excuse for a drop in production. And so, is it any surprise that this is what happened? Keep in mind that MHI has
advanced indicators available that they may not talk about. Their musings on recessions and manufactured housing were released prior to the reported national data which is linked below. See the latest data on manufactured home production and related in the linked reports.
Daily Business News on MHProNews Markets Segment
The modifications of our prior Daily Business News on MHProNews format of the recap of yesterday evening’s market report are provided below. It still includes our signature left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines. The macro market moves graphics will provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities.
In minutes a day readers can get a good sense of significant or major events while keeping up with the trends that are impacting manufactured housing connected investing.
Reminder: several of the graphics on MHProNews can be opened into a larger size. For instance: click the image and follow the prompts in your browser or device to OPEN In a New Window. Then, in several browsers/devices you can click the image and increase the size. Use the ‘x out’ (close window) escape or back key to return.
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 12.22.2022
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Headlines from right-of-center Newsmax 12.22.2022
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====================================
Updated
- NOTE 1: The 3rd chart above of manufactured housing connected equities includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry finance lender.
- NOTE 2: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
- NOTE 3: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm. Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.
- Note 4: some recent or related reports to the REITs, stocks, and other equities named above follow in the reports linked below.
2022 …Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory-built housing industry suppliers.
· LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others.
· AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here.
Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
· For expert manufactured housing business development or other professional services, click here.
· To sign up in seconds for our industry leading emailed headline news updates, click here.
That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards and honors and also recognition in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
