The data provided to MHProNews from the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA) that follows should be viewed through the broader national production and sales facts summarized below from the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR).
Further, while the hard data shown from MHARR’s summary of federal data provided above is also reflected in the report below, that linked report has additional facts and analysis not found in that graphic.
Manufactured Housing Industry Production Dip, Top Shipment States Data – June 2020
Those data points and analysis set the stage for the information provided by the TMHA. That will be followed by additional information, MHProNews analysis and commentary.
New manufactured home sales for June 2020 are on pace to hit the highest total sales for the month of June in our 9-year series and are up 12.2% over 2019. With titles processed to this point we are forecasting June sales to end up at 1,576, which would beat the June record of 1,507 set in 2018. It is important to note that early read forecasts are revised when we reach the month’s official report release in one month’s time, and that those later forecasts increase in accuracy.
TDHCA’s titling rate hit an all-time high in July but is now lagging the past two years in August with an average of 61 new home sales getting titled each day this month. That increase and subsequent decline could indicate that June sales titled were front-loaded and might slow down over the next month, or that sales in July cooled in comparison to 2019.
MAY DATA
New manufactured home sales in May came in 23.7% higher than April, and just -2.7% behind May of 2019. Sales haven’t come anywhere near that close to a 2019 total since February came in down -2% before the coronavirus outbreak hit hard in March.
The 1,216 new home sales has already beaten last month’s final total forecast which was depressed by a halt in titling at the department due to positive Covid-19 tests.
We are now forecasting that 1,452 new homes were sold in May. (+/- 91)
New homes sold in May skewed much older than they did in April.
Liberty County was first for new home placements in May, and Ector saw a huge uptick.
Used home sales were inflated by a community purchase in Howe, TX.
ANNUAL TOTALS
New home sales on the year are trailing 2019 by only -5.4%, with that spread set to tighten when June’s numbers are included next month.
We’ve built an exponential smoothing model that uses historical sales going back to 2012 and imputes the last 7 months worth of totals with our regression model forecasts. We can use this model to then forecast the remaining months of the year taking into account trending and seasonality. The confidence intervals for the months forecasted using only prior month sales are much wider than those for which we have data and can rely on our regression model, so at each release the confidence interval for the forecast will tighten as another month moves from an exponentially smoothed forecast to a regression model forecast based on the titles that came in on-time.
At present our model is forecasting 15,630 new home sales for 2020. (+/- 1,960)
We’re now running at series highs for the median number of days between a home’s date of sale and it’s manufactured date for both single and multi-section homes.
Montgomery County remains number one for new home installations on the year, and Liberty county has surpassed Harris for the number two spot.
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Additional Information, MHProNews Analysis and Commentary
- Public perceptions of the industry. While this might be termed “marketing,” “public relations,” or “consumer education” it is in fact all three. What is clear from the fact that industry production/shipments have been down for much of the past 2 years, that’s a clear signal that MHI has not done what they said in 2018 would occur. Namely, industry growth and momentum.
What’s increasingly evident is that MHI is adept at getting photo opportunities. That demonstrates access. But what that access also suggests is that they are either hopelessly inept or corrupt. How else can someone explain the industry’s struggles during an affordable housing crisis?
To learn more, see the related reports linked above or further below the byline.
Stay tuned for more of what is ‘behind the curtains’ as well as what is obvious and in your face reports. It is all here, at the runaway largest and most-read source for authentic manufactured home “Industry News, Tips, and Views Pros Can Use” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © ## (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.com.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship and earned numerous awards in history and in manufactured housing.
For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. He’s a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com.
This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s position, and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
Connect on LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/latonykovach
Related References:
The text/image boxes below are linked to other reports, which can be accessed by clicking on them.
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