A subtle but perhaps distinct change is seemingly underway in MHVille (i.e.: the artificially smaller manufactured housing industry in the U.S.) in September 2023. To grasp the importance of accurate and/or misleading information, it is worth noting that consistently accurate information can be a problem for, hypothetically, those involved in a scheme involving apparent violations of antitrust and other federal (or state) laws. But antitrust concerns are no longer hypothetical for the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), given the launch of the big antitrust class action on behalf of manufactured home residents lists DiCello Levitt, Hausfeld, and Myron M. Cherry & Associates as the plaintiffs’ attorneys in Case No. 23-cv-6715 in the United States District Court Northern District of Illinois Eastern Division. That case names several prominent MHI members. It will be significant to see what, if anything, changes with MHI and MHI linked sources in the wake of that Case No 23-cv-6715 filing. While MHI is not (yet?) named as a defendant, MHI is referenced in the plaintiffs’ pleadings as being a possible nexus for illicit collusion between MHI members.
There are evidence-based reasons to believe that most of those defendants named are either already MHI members and/or are members of an MHI linked state affiliate.
The Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA) is an MHI affiliate.
TMHA is involved in the production of the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) monthly report.
In Part I below is the latest monthly report from TRERC, which is produced in conjunction with the TMHA.
In Part II is the national and top states data from the Manufactured Housing Association of Regulatory Reform (MHARR). That hard data should be compared to TRERC remarks to see what disconnects are manifested.
Part III provides additional information with more MHProNews analysis and commentary in brief.
Part IV is the Daily Business News on MHProNews snapshots of the macro-markets, dozens of manufactured housing connected publicly traded firms, and our signature left (CNN) right (Newsmax) market moving headlines recap.
Part I
Texas housing manufacturers prepare for growth despite rising costs
COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Increased production and sales stimulated manufactured housing activity for the seventh straight month in August, according to the latest Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS). Robust activity helped bolster the industry outlook through at least the first quarter of 2024.
“One reason for the recent optimism could be the relative stability of chattel loan interest rates compared with mortgage rates for site-built housing,” said Dr. Harold Hunt, research economist at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University (TRERC). “Chattel loans are characterized by a smaller secondary market, and lenders have more flexibility since they aren’t trying to conform to conventional rules to sell notes.”
Despite the relative stability in chattel loan rates, prices received for finished homes have trended downward for more than a year. That trend may be shifting as raw material costs jumped upward in August, and manufacturers expect ongoing increases for the rest of the year.
“Lumber and diesel fuel prices increased 5.7 and 8.4 percent, respectively, during the first three weeks of August,” according to Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. “Lumber prices have been volatile and have moved down from their intra-month peak, but diesel prices have climbed steadily since July and hit manufacturers both when shipping materials in and, even more so, when shipping homes to retailers.”
Labor costs also elevated in August, contributing to pricing pressures that are building in the industry.
“Despite raising wages, expanding payrolls, and extending workweeks, housing manufacturers are struggling to keep pace with the current flow of orders,” said Wes Miller, TRERC senior research associate. “The industry’s optimistic outlook outweighed these obstacles, prompting preparations to increase capital expenditures despite the higher interest rate environment.”
All TMHA members with manufacturing facilities in the state were invited to participate in the sentiment survey, and the survey panel represents 89 percent of HUD-code homes produced in Texas.
—30—
Part II
Double-Digit 2023 Manufactured Home Production Slide Continues
Washington, D.C., September…2023– The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) reports that according to official statistics compiled on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), HUD Code manufactured housing industry year-over-year production declined again in July 2023. Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 6,134 new homes in July 2023, a 23.8% decline from the 8,050 new HUD Code homes produced in July 2022. Cumulative production for 2023 is now 50,022 homes, a 28.2% decrease from the 69,709 homes produced over the same period during 2022.
A further analysis of the official industry statistics shows that the top ten shipment states from January 2023 — with monthly, cumulative, current year (2023) and prior year (2022) shipments per category as indicated — are:
The statistics for July 2023 produce one change from last month, moving Kentucky into 10th place.
As the official statistics demonstrate, production is not improving to any significant degree and the industry will ultimately have to confront and make hard decisions, particularly within the post-production sector where the most significant problems (i.e., exclusionary zoning and a lack of fully-competitive consumer financing) continue to persist.
The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform is a Washington, D.C.- based national trade association representing the views and interests of independent producers of federally-regulated manufactured housing.
Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR)
1331 Pennsylvania Ave N.W., Suite 512
Washington D.C. 20004
Phone: 202/783-4087
Fax: 202/783-4075
Email: MHARR@MHARRPUBLICATIONS.COM
Website: www.manufacturedhousingassociation.org
Part III – Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary
With both of those reports in one article, note that TRERC said: “Increased production and sales stimulated manufactured housing activity for the seventh straight month in August, according to the latest Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS). Robust activity helped bolster the industry outlook through at least the first quarter of 2024.”
MHARR, citing federal data (not “sentiments,” which are what TRERC’s spokesperson has said their reports are based upon) said: “Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 6,134 new homes in July 2023, a 23.8% decline from the 8,050 new HUD Code homes produced in July 2022. Cumulative production for 2023 is now 50,022 homes, a 28.2% decrease from the 69,709 homes produced over the same period during 2022.”
It doesn’t take a genius to realize that those two sets of remarks don’t sound at all alike.
Technically, TRERC/TMHA’s input might be true in some technical sense, because they admitted that they often report sentiments, not hard data. But the hard data makes it clear that mere ‘sentiments’ can be wrong. To see 7 months of data in graphic form, MHProNews organized the shipment data into Texas (which would include HUD Code manufactured homes produced in Texas bound for Texas). Here is that data.
8394/12629 = 0.66466070156. Or 12,629 x 0.66466070156 = 8394. That’s 0.33533929844% lower shipments in 2022 than 2023 or a 33.53% drop in shipments for Texas.
What that means is that shipments in Texas have fallen somewhat sharper year to date in 2023 than they have nationally, which MHARR reported as “a 28.2% decrease” compared to 2022. Yet, TRERC’s report is saying “Texas housing manufacturers prepare for growth despite rising costs?” Sentiment gaslighting anyone?
But another remark from TRERC is troublingly odd and that is this: “Dr. Harold Hunt, research economist at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University (TRERC). “Chattel loans are characterized by a smaller secondary market, and lenders have more flexibility since they aren’t trying to conform to conventional rules to sell notes.”
That strange remark seems to be an attempt to turn the argument for chattel lending under the Duty to Serve (DTS) or FHA Title I ‘programs’ on their head.
Even MHI members – such as Cavco Industries (CVCO) William “Bill” Boor, and MHI members sounding off on the Skyline Champion-ECN Capital-Triad Financial Services deal – at least assert that DTS and FHA Title I is useful and good for the industry. With all due respect to Dr. Hunt, his remarks on that point are at best an odd outlier for an economist.
Lower rates, and a robust (not shadow) secondary market is better for manufactured housing, and MHI – at least officially – says the same.
So, in their brief monthly report from TRERC, there are at least two significant disconnects from evidence-based or ‘factual’ reality. While the TRERC report is arm’s length from having MHI’s name on it (and the names of those corporate leaders who have purportedly made MHI their plaything or professional tool for consolidation), the data makes it clear that Clayton Homes, Skyline Champion, and Cavco Industries (to name the so-called ‘big three’) are involved in generating those ‘sentiments.’
Sorry, But TRERC Has Less of an Excuse – Here’s Why…
On Wednesday September 6, 2023 at 8:32 AM, MHProNews provided a key contact with TRERC a message that said in part: “Let me respectfully suggest that you share this [attached data from MHARR] with those on your team that produce your monthly TRERC report. These are packed with facts vs. mere sentiments.” The suggestion was also made that they sign up and get MHARR’s information directly and free. That contact confirmed the receipt. Then, on Monday September 11, 2023 at 4:45 PM their report above was produced. The case can be made that they willfully produced misleading information. This despite what they previously stated to MHProNews following our months of investigations which unpacked their ‘sentiments’ vs. harder factual evidence. Quoting their May 16, 2023 reply to our concern over their apparent disconnects between data and sentiments: “Good afternoon, Tony. You are correct – this is a sentiment survey. We’ll make sure future news releases are clear on that point to prevent any confusion. We appreciate the feedback.”
Note that a year ago, in September 2022, MHProNews specifically raised antitrust concerns with respect to TRERC-TMHA and the powers that be involved in those organizations as it relates to manufactured housing. For the sake of those who try to cast doubt about our facts, research, and analysis, that was roughly a year ahead of the antitrust suit that hit key MHI members about 3 weeks ago.
One of several takeaways is that information can be weaponized in ways that can cross legal lines.
One problem for MHI, and MHI linked sources, appears to be an inability to stay consistent with their own talking points. That may be a problem for them when it comes to the now filed suit against several prominent MHI members. It remains to be seen if MHI – and/or more of their members, perhaps including one or more of their ‘state association affiliates’ – becomes the subject of the current or some future litigation for their role in the ongoing consolidation of manufactured housing.
For the sake of first time or only occasional readers, it should be noted that MHProNews in its fact checks seeks to aim straight and consistent with facts and evidence. When TRERC and TMHA provided remarks last month that shed useful light on the ‘backlog’ controversy, MHProNews so reported and gave the appropriate credit.
Fair and Balanced
When an apparent cheap (and unjust) shot was taken at Triad Financial earlier this summer (2023), MHProNews sought the facts directly from Triad and presented them. Triad is an MHI member, but we wanted to see accurate reporting. If someone wants to fairly and accurately criticize misbehavior in MHVille, fine. But take cheap shots and low blows, and a published response may follow that can make the source of misinformation look…foolish, sloppy, or worse.
That said, fairness to a source, person, or operation doesn’t mean that they can’t be called out when they may be doing something less than great for the industry’s broader interests. Compare the first report below to the next two. All three are fair and balanced. But the first ‘defends’ Triad where they merited it.
Facts and evidence are whatever they are. When known facts are laid out – side by side, so to speak – and are carefully examined it can often reveal insights that the original source(s) may not have considered.
For instance, on 9.1.2023 Bloomberg Legal news said: “Mobile Home Companies Accused of Conspiring on Rental Prices” explaining that: “Nine management companies for manufactured homes are facing an antitrust suit alleging they conspired to raise the rental price of mobile home lots across more than 150 locations throughout the US.” That suit has drawn national attention. The Associated Press (AP), Denver Post, Reuters, and other national and regional media have published articles on the topic. Depending on the word search, MHProNews reports on the issue are often page 1. For instance, this search on 9.19.2023 was input into Bing.
>> Information about antitrust suit against Manufactured Housing Institute linked mobile home parks.
Bing AI’s reply said this.
- “Scandal Plagued” Flagship Communities REIT Scores Multiple Communities, Nathan Smith, Kurtis “Kurt” Keeney Backstory, Report & Analysis1.
- “Machine of Human Suffering”-Berkshire Hathaway’s Clayton Homes, Manufactured Housing Institute Attorneys Response to Allegations, Felony Abuses, Knudson Law2.
- Buffett/Berkshire Bust! Stunning Charges – Frank Rolfe, Dave Reynolds, Impact Communities Lawsuit Against Residents, MHAction Connection Evidence3.
- CASA Lawsuit Against Manufactured Home Community Owner Over High Resident Water Bills, Plus Manufactured Housing Stocks Updates4.
- Prima Facie Cases Against Manufactured Housing Institute, Richard A. “Dick” Jennison, Tim Williams, 21st Mortgage, Kevin Clayton, Tom Hodges, Clayton Homes et al.5.
Please note that the information provided in these articles is not exhaustive and there may be additional sources available for more detailed information.
But that suit shouldn’t be a surprise to MHProNews readers who signaled the industry in late 2022 that manufactured housing was apparently poised to become a ‘target rich environment’ for such legal action. Not only has there been this big, national case filed (see further below for linked pleadings and related reports), but there has also been state-level action. While the later has not been nearly as robust, to be sure, it nevertheless is a reminder that public officials can, have, and do step in.
Some of the cases – current, recent, and pending – could be said to have the ‘fingerprints’ of research from MHProNews/MHLivingNews on it. For instance, per Bing’s AI Chat function: “The MHI website provides a Members Only Directory that is available exclusively to MHI members.” But MHProNews has a 2019 copy available for our readers, and the lawsuit below lists that in their pleadings. Coincidence? 😉
In conclusion of this segment, there are times when TRERC has brought to light information worth sharing. But there have also been times that what they have reported was apparently flawed when compared to known facts. While no source is perfect, by contrast, MHARR has been consistent and routinely accurate in their assertions.
“Growth” ought to mean an increase from a baseline. Based on the industry’s long-term baseline, the manufactured housing industry in the 21st century has been consistently underperforming.
Based on the base line from 2022, manufactured housing is experiencing negative growth. That applies to Texas as well as to the industry nationally.
One possible takeaway to this fact check is this. Not only are MHI-member linked sources often unreliable or misleading, they seek to call into question the reality demonstrated by hard facts. Industry pros know that sales are down, and it is an insult to the intelligence of professionals that some are producing information that purports to be news which are instead spin, propaganda, and gaslighting. When did this pattern of begin?
Learn more about the 2000-2003 era and the forces that impacted manufactured housing, then and now, see the report linked here and below.
Part IV. Daily Business News on MHProNews Markets and Headline News Segment
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 9.18.2023
- Behind the strikes
- There’s a common thread linking the biggest labor protests: Workers fighting a living wage and exorbitant CEO pay packages
- United Auto Workers (UAW) members on a picket line outside the Ford Motor Co. Michigan Assembly plant in Wayne, Michigan, US, on Friday, Sept. 15, 2023. The United Auto Workers began an unprecedented strike at all three of the legacy Detroit carmakers, kicking off a potentially costly and protracted showdown over wages and job security.
- Haven’t been paying attention to the UAW strike? What you need to know
- Benjamin Netanyahu in a one-on-one conversation with Elon Musk live streamed on X on September 18.
- Benjamin Netanyahu asks Elon Musk to ‘roll back’ antisemitism on X
- iPhone 15 and 15 Plus models are displayed during an announcement of new products on the Apple campus Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2023, in Cupertino, Calif.
- iOS 17 release: See what’s new in iPhone features
- Linebacker C.J. Mosley #57 of the New York Jets makes a stop in the game between the Buffalo Bills vs the New York Jets on Monday Night Football at MetLife Stadium on September 11, 2023 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
- ABC adds 10 more ‘Monday Night Football’ games to help plug the hole left by Hollywood strikes
- Bill Maher is seen arriving at Crypto.com Arena for Game Six of the Western Conference Semi-Finals of the 2023 NBA Playoffs between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors on May 12, 2023 in Los Angeles, California
- Bill Maher isn’t bringing back his HBO talk show during the writers’ strike
- Gas prices over $5.00 a gallon are displayed at a gas station on September 13, 2023 in San Rafael, California. According to a report by the Labor Department, surging gas prices in August contributed to a rise in inflation as consumer spending rose to 3.7 from 3.2 percent in July.
- Gas prices hit 2023 highs as oil stays hot
- A worker builds a home in Lillington, North Carolina, US, on Thursday, June 15, 2023.
- Homebuilder confidence continues to be weighed down by high mortgage rates
- Clorox said a cyberattack is disrupting operations.
- Clorox products in short supply after cyberattack
- General Motors CEO Mary Barra during an interview with CNN’s Vanessa Yurkevich in Detroit on September 15.
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Headlines from right-of-center Newsmax 9.18.2023
- US-Bound Plane Leaves Doha with Five Americans Freed by Iran
- Trump Zings ‘Dumb as a Rock’ Biden on Iran, Pushing for Joe’s Removal
- Former President Donald Trump is warning of “some terrible things” to come after “dumb as a rock” President Joe Biden gave $6 billion for five people, while Iran gave zero for five. And he is asking why GOP lawmakers aren’t pushing harder to remove Biden through the 25th Amendment. [Full Story]
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- Newsmax TV
- Hageman: On Biden, Jury Is the American Public
- Mullin: Don’t ‘Play Games’ With Impeachment | video
- Whitaker: Watching Courts on Inquiry Subpoenas | video
- Nikki Haley: US ‘Can’t Survive’ VP Harris as President | video
- Blaine Holt: Russia, NKorea ‘Deepening Alliance’ | video
- Chad Wolf: Sanctuary Cities Getting ‘Buyer’s Remorse’ | video
- Fred Fleitz: Russia, North Korea Alliance ‘Troubling’ | video
- Dick Morris: Polled Nonvoters Prefer Trump Over Biden | video
- Fallon: Wouldn’t Open Inquiry If ‘Nothing There’
- More Newsmax TV
- Newsfront
- Rasmussen Poll: 38 Percent Like Third Party in 2020 Rematch
- More than a third if voters say they’d vote for a third-party candidate if the 2024 presidential race choices are a rerun of 2020 contenders Joe Biden and Donald Trump, a new survey shows…. [Full Story]
- Wall Street Moves Sideways as Investors Await Fed
- Wall Street closed little changed Monday as market participants [Full Story]
- ChatGPT Equals Doctors in Diagnosing ER Patients
- Emergency medicine doctors someday might rely on consultation from [Full Story]
- House GOP Vies to Halt ‘Catch and Release’ in Stopgap Bill
- House Republicans folded in language from a bill they passed in May [Full Story] | video
- Disney Sees Massive Fall Off for Disney+, Hulu Subscribers After Price Hike, Woke Policies
- Disney is expected to fall tens of millions short of its 2024 goal [Full Story]
- Suspect Arrested in Ambush Killing of Sheriff’s Deputy
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- Pilot Safely Ejects; Fighter Jet Missing in S.C.
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- An FBI search last month has raised concerns regarding government [Full Story] | Platinum Article
- Generac Recalls 64K Generators Over Fire Hazard
- After 27 overheating incidents and three severe burn injuries were [Full Story]
- Russia Asks Hague to Toss Ukraine Genocide Challenge
- Russia called on the U.N.’s highest court in The Hague on Monday to [Full Story]
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- SOF Poll: Majority Oppose Iran Prisoner Swap
- A majority of likely U.S. voters disagree with the Biden [Full Story]
- ‘Woke’ Politics ‘Creeping’ Into Video Games
- As if dominating reality wasn’t enough of a prize for progressives, [Full Story] | Platinum Article
- US-Bound Plane Leaves Doha With Five Americans Freed by Iran
- A U.S.-bound plane carrying five Americans freed by Iran left Doha on [Full Story]
- Video Report: Israeli Envoy Hails Success of Abraham Accords
- Amir Hayek,Israel’sambassador to theUnited Arab Emirates, discusses [Full Story] | video
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- President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign is getting some big-name [Full Story]
- Planned Parenthood in Wis. Offers Abortions Again
- Planned Parenthood began offering abortion services againin [Full Story]
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- The same Ohio river valley where the Wright brothers pioneered human [Full Story]
- New Jersey Mayor Running Against Sen. Bob Menendez
- New Jersey mayor Christine Serrano Glassner has filed to run as a [Full Story]
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- Former President Donald Trump picked up another endorsement from a [Full Story] | video
- Some Disney World Attractions Close Due to Black Bear
- Walt Disney World in Orlando, Florida, closed several attractions [Full Story]
- Texas Church Uses ChatGPT to Create Worship Service
- With artificial intelligence (AI) making inroads into a variety of [Full Story]
- Fmr US AG Meese: Clark Case Belongs in Federal Court
- One of the many motions to move the Georgia election challenge case [Full Story] | video
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- Former President Donald Trump is warning “some terrible things” to [Full Story] | video
- Biden Mocks GOP Impeachment Inquiry: ‘Lots of Luck’
- A defiant President Joe Biden dismissed a reporter’s question Sunday [Full Story] | video
- Keith Gross Will Spend $20 Million to Unseat Sen. Rick Scott
- Florida businessman Keith Gross said he is willing to spend $20 [Full Story]
- House Republicans Pressing VA for Abortion Data
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- Former President Donald Trump’s attorneys argued again for District [Full Story]
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- American Applauded: New Invention Slashes Power Bills by Half
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- Finance
- Aramco, Exxon CEOs: Oil Demand Won’t Peak in 2030
- The CEOs of top Saudi Arabian and U.S. oil producers Aramco and Exxon Mobil on Monday pushed back forecasts of peak oil demand, and said the energy transition would require continuing investment in conventional oil and gas…. [Full Story]
- Macy’s to Hire 38K Holiday Workers, Down From 2022
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- Seniors’ Finances Decline Ahead of Dementia
- Fed Poised to Leave Rates Unchanged Wednesday
- More Finance
- Health
- Prepare Now for Flu, RSV, and COVID-19 Season
- Kids are back in school and it’s time to think about viruses, for both yourself and them. It could be an early flu season in the United States, if what happened in the Southern Hemisphere offers any insight, according to Cedars-Sinai in Los Angeles. The flu vaccine is now…… [Full Story]
- British Medical Council Internal Memo Goes Gender Neutral
- Seniors’ Finances Decline Ahead of Dementia
- Heavy Drinking Tied to Dangerous Heart, Liver Fat
- ADHD Drug Errors Among Kids Have Quadrupled
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- NOTE 1: Chart above of manufactured housing connected equities includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry finance lender.
- NOTE 2: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
- NOTE 3: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm. Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.
- Note 4: some recent or related reports to the REITs, stocks, and other equities named above follow in the reports linked below.
-
2023 …Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory-built housing industry suppliers.
· LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others.
· AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here.
2022 was a tough year for many stocks. Unfortunately, that pattern held true for manufactured home industry (MHVille) connected stocks too. See the facts, linked above.
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Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
· For expert manufactured housing business development or other professional services, click here.
· To sign up in seconds for our industry leading emailed headline news updates, click here.
- Note 1: MHVille means manufactured housing industry, MHVille also means artificially smaller manufactured housing (MH) industry,
- Note 2: Manufactured housing, production, factories, retail, dealers, manufactured home, communities, passive mobile home park investing, suppliers, brokers, finance, financial services, macro-markets, manufactured housing stocks, Manufactured Home Communities Real Estate Investment Trusts, MHC REITs.
That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards, honors and numerous public recognitions for his achievements in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. Kovach is a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com, which is ranked as the runaway most read trade media in modern manufactured housing history. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s editorial views and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
