‘Two-Story House Built in Just Eight Hours’ on Washington D.C. Mall During Innovative Housing Showcase – Compare Promo of SBCA vs Manufactured Housing Institute; Andy Gedo Redux; plus MHMarkets
“Two-Story House Built in Just Eight Hours Showcases Offsite Manufacturing Practices with Potential to Increase Housing Supply, Enhance Jobsite Efficiency & Reduce Construction Costs” is the headline of a press release via Cison PR Newswire on 6.7.2024. Their release is posted as Part I of this report with analysis and was provided by “Structural Building Components Association Partners with 84 Lumber at U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Innovative Housing Showcase.” By contrast, on 6.10.2024 at about 9:25 AM (the Monday morning after the Innovative Housing Showcase or IHS), a search for “Manufactured Housing Institute” (MHI) and that event reveals no similar mainstream news release by “The Institute” as the one shown below by the Structural Building Components Association (SBCA) and 84 Lumber. Meaning, the Structural Building Components Association (SBCA) and 84 Lumber have done more to promote their respective industry and housing products solutions than MHI did.
As Part II will illustrate with evidence, MHI’s efforts appear to be more focused on posturing for MHVille rather than attempting to use the IHS, which they “co-sponsored,” as a potentially positive platform to win over more Americans, national and local housing officials, to embrace manufactured homes as a key part of the solution for the affordable housing crisis. SBCA and 84 Lumber rapidly provided a video produced at the National Mall during IHS to illustrate their process. Especially for those who may not be familiar with such methods, their video can be impressive. Where is the equivalent effort by MHI? Think about this in terms of the concerns raised by SECO-connected David Roden‘s engagement with MHI. Per Bing’s AI powered Copilot, there is only one association that apparently responded to Roden, and it wasn’t MHI.
As a relevant sidebar, it is worth noting that within a few miles of MHProNews’ location there are several conventional building component framing centers. By contrast, there is only one manufactured home production center, and it was only recently re-opened after being idled for years. Yet, Florida is the #2 state in the U.S. for new HUD Code manufactured housing production.
Part III of this report will be the manufactured housing connected equities market report and updates.
Part I
Cision PR Newswire
Two-Story House Built in Just Eight Hours Showcases Offsite Manufacturing Practices with Potential to Increase Housing Supply, Enhance Jobsite Efficiency & Reduce Construction Costs
Structural Building Components Association Partners with 84 Lumber at U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Innovative Housing Showcase
WASHINGTON, June 7, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — The Structural Building Components Association (SBCA) in partnership with 84 Lumber and the National Framers Council (NFC), demonstrated the future of home construction at the Innovative Housing Showcase (IHS) in Washington, D.C., by building a two-story, 2,400-square-foot house on the National Mall in under eight hours. This impressive accomplishment showcases the efficiency and sustainability of modern offsite manufacturing techniques.
“This project illustrates how slight changes in a home builder’s normal construction process can significantly impact construction cycle times and allow limited jobsite labor to build more homes more efficiently,” said Jess Lohse, executive director at the SBCA. “The Innovative Housing Showcase is a great opportunity to provide information, knowledge, and a real-time example of all the benefits and efficiencies components, such as trusses and wall panels, bring to the housing industry,” continued Lohse.
As one of the SBCA’s largest national members, 84 Lumber provided all the structural framing elements for the build, including windows, doors, and framing crews. The company continues to be at the forefront of innovation.
“This eight-hour build isn’t just some race to the finish or attention-grabbing gimmick,” said Ken Kucera, VP of installed sales and manufacturing at 84 Lumber. “The build represents the efficiencies of current component manufacturing and installation methods. This makes installation at the job site so much faster and helps the builder’s bottom line and ability to provide quality housing solutions,” said Kucera.
Being able to assemble a home in this time frame has huge benefits to both builders and homebuyers across the nation, added Lohse.
“Jobsite labor is severely constrained across the country and this approach allows existing framing crews to complete more homes more quickly and to provide more homes to ease current demand. Both factors contribute to bringing down the cost of housing, making the dream of owning a home possible for more Americans,” said Sean Shields, director of marketing at the SBCA.
84 Lumber component plants service single-family, multifamily, townhomes, and custom home builders – one single plant can do about four-to-five houses daily. “The plants are all about efficiency, from the types of lumber cut to the design optimization,” said Kucera.
“We’ve made significant investments to expand and modernize our manufacturing capabilities to supply framing elements to home builders across the country. By utilizing roof trusses, wall panels, and open-web floor truss panels manufactured in 84 Lumber’s offsite facilities, jobsite labor crews can fully frame a house in a fraction of the time it would take using traditional stick-framing methods.”
Each individual wall and truss is labeled as to the exact location, so the crew knows exactly where it goes, saving time and money. “This gives the builder a lot of flexibility and makes the jobsite so much faster,” said Kucera.
The materials for the SBCA build come from the company’s Winchester, Virginia location where 84 Lumber associates are trained in production, quality control, logistics, and safety.
“84 Lumber’s expertise and resources make them an ideal partner in capturing the efficiencies inherent in this construction methodology,” Shields emphasized.
In addition to the offsite components, this year’s event highlighted several new developments. The crew installed HVAC mechanicals, electrical, and plumbing in open-web floor trusses, which speeds up installation, reduces field errors, and lowers costs.
Incorporation of new products like insulated wall studs in wall panels to enhance the energy efficiency of the home was also used. The use of both floor panels and roof panels will move even more construction tasks offsite, thus reducing build time further compared to last year. Last year’s build was completed in 12 hours — the new methods employed this year shaved four hours off the build time.
The IHS is an annual public event aimed at highlighting innovative and affordable housing designs and technologies. It’s imperative that the general public and others in the industry be given all the information necessary to continue building the country’s most important product: housing.
“The affordability of today’s homes is a significant challenge for many families, and HUD is at the forefront of seeking solutions. Events like the Innovative Housing Showcase provide a platform for innovators to demonstrate what is possible today and tomorrow to reduce the cost of home construction,” noted Lohse.
Innovation is always happening in the construction industry. It should also be noted that these techniques will be fully put to the test as they will be used in the real world.
At the end of the event, the 84 Lumber-provided framing crew will return to the National Mall to disassemble the structure, load it onto trucks, and transport it to a prepared jobsite in Waynesboro, Virginia. Donated to Habitat for Humanity, the structure will become two single-family houses.
“In our area, 40 percent of all households are below the local household survival budget,” said Charlie Frankfort, board chairman of Habitat for Humanity-Waynesboro. “Finding affordable housing is a huge challenge,” said Frankfort. “We are thrilled to be working with the SBCA and NFC again this year to provide two more homes for families in need.”
The designs showcased at IHS have the potential to increase housing supply, reduce construction costs, enhance energy efficiency and resilience, and lower housing expenses for owners and renters.
“The biggest takeaway is that the methodology we use to build our house on the National Mall is available to every builder across the country and can be applied to any building style. This approach is not only efficient but also adaptable, offering significant benefits to both builders and consumers,” said Lohse.
According to the SBCA, nearly 70 percent of homes constructed in America leverage offsite construction technology, particularly in roof trusses, which dates to the 1950s. This method not only decreases construction costs compared to traditional stick-framing, but also significantly enhances a home’s resilience against severe weather conditions, thus drastically underscoring its efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and durability in the construction industry.
The Innovative Housing Showcase aims to raise awareness about innovative and affordable housing designs and technologies to demonstrate how these advancements can boost housing supply, decrease construction costs, increase energy efficiency and resilience, and make housing more affordable for both homeowners and renters.
ABOUT 84 LUMBER Founded in 1956 and headquartered in Eighty Four, Pennsylvania, 84 Lumber Co. is the nation’s largest privately held supplier of building materials, manufactured components, and industry-leading services for single and multifamily residences and commercial buildings. The company operates 320 facilities which include stores, component manufacturing plants, custom door shops, and engineered wood product centers in 33 states. 84 Lumber also offers turnkey installation services for a variety of products, including framing, insulation, siding, windows, roofing, decking, and drywall. A certified national women’s business enterprise owned by Maggie Hardy, 84 Lumber was named as one of the Most Trustworthy Companies in America 2024 by Newsweek, and one of America’s Largest Private Companies in 2023 by Forbes. The company also made the Inc. 5000 list of America’s Fastest-Growing Companies in 2023. For more information, visit 84lumber.com or join us on Facebook, Instagram or LinkedIn.
About SBCA The Structural Building Components Association (SBCA) is a trade association representing manufacturers of structural building components. Its membership also includes truss plate suppliers, original equipment manufacturers and resellers, computer software companies, lumber suppliers, builders, and professional individuals in various fields, including engineering, marketing, and management. SBCA provides services its membership needs to continue expanding the market share of all structural building components by promoting the common interests of those engaged in manufacturing trusses, wall panels, and related structural components; to ensure growth, continuity, and increased professionalism, which will strengthen the structural building component manufacturing industry’s influence. For more information, please visit: www.sbcacomponents.com.
About IHS IHS is a public event to raise awareness of innovative and affordable housing designs and technologies that have the potential to increase housing supply, lower the cost of construction, increase energy efficiency and resilience, and reduce housing expenses for owners and renters. This is the fourth year of the Innovative Housing Showcase. Now in its fourth year, the showcase invites attendees to explore past events, learn about exhibitors, and discover details on the 2024 programming. ##
Part II – Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary
Needless to say, MHProNews is in the business of informing, but it is more focused on manufactured housing than any other aspect of the housing industry. That said, SBCA’s and 84 Lumber’s press release is illustrative of what others have done to promote their involvement at IHS and thus for the benefit of their industry. As MHI member Andy Gedo observed, he “agrees” that as a “highly concentrated industry” and since our “industry lacks contrarians, it may be worthwhile to look to other industries for examples.”
With those thoughts in mind, and in no particular order of importance, are the following items.
1) According to Dan Hardcastle with HUD was the following from a video posted on YouTube.
Dan Hardcastle, Special Policy Advisor at the US Department of Housing, will be joining us live to discuss the 2024 Innovative Housing Showcase on the National Mall, happening from June 7-9. This event will feature full-sized prototype homes and cutting-edge building technologies addressing affordability, resilience, and the future of housing. It’s an incredible opportunity to experience firsthand the innovations shaping the future of housing.
📅 Event Details: – Dates: June 7-9, 2024 – Location: National Mall, Washington, D.C. – Showcase Opening Ceremony: 9am on Friday, June 7
The Showcase is a public event that brings together policymakers, homebuilders, innovators, entrepreneurs, media, and the general public. Organized by HUD, the International Code Council (ICC), Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC), and Structural Building Components Association (SBCA), this year’s event promises to be bigger and better, with dozens of exhibits showcasing innovative housing designs and technologies.
Exhibitors: @Lars Electric @Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) @Azure Printed Homes @Span @NeoCharge @Sensor Industries @US Hemp Building Association @National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) @Great Outdoor Cottages @Daytek @21st Century Home @Innova Panel LLC @NOAH Certified @CONTAINER HIGH LIFE @James Hardie @BioHome3D @Maryland Air National Guard @DOMA HOMES @Adept Materials @EcoSmart Stud @PM Green Energy @United Mobile Homes (UMH) @Curtis + Ginsberg Architects @NOWhaus @Lancaster Log Cabins @Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) @Teknobuilt @TinyBox @SBCA @Habitat @National Framers Council @Flower Turbines @Volunteers of America National Services @Marymount University + All Eco Design Center @NASA Langley Research Center @PalletShelter @Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) @Green Canopy NODE @Eco-Shelter @Solaris Toilet Don’t miss this chance to engage with industry leaders and explore the future of housing! 🏡✨
2) At about 10.23 AM ET on 6.10.2024, there is only this one video found on YouTube that mentions MHI at the 2024 Innovative Housing Showcase (IHS). It appears to be one provided by HUD.
3) By way of contrast, a search using Google under the search tab for “video” of: “84 Lumber” “Innovative Housing Showcase” “2024” revealed some 2 pages of items. One of those posted is this 20 second TikTok Video. Note that it makes clear that this 8 hour build was for ‘framing in’ the house, not completing the interior of the house. That said, it is still impressive, particularly for those who are not aware of such methods.
4) Per the 84 Lumber website: “84 Lumber operates nearly 250 stores,” and S&P Global said: “84 Lumber’s scale and size ($8.7 billion revenue in FY 2022).” So, 84 Lumber is about 78 percent of the volume (revenue) of the entire manufactured housing industry’s retail production achieved in 2023. Citing the Census Bureau, Multi-Housing News said: “Census data also shows that the average sale price of a manufactured home in the U.S. in May 2022 was $124,900—up from $85,900 in May 2020.” Here is the math: 89,169 new homes x $124,900 average retail price = $11,137,208,100. $8.7 billion. To achieve the percentage, here is the math: 8700000000/11,137,208,100 = 0.78116525451.
5) The Structural Building Components Association (SBCA): “Total housing starts for 2023 were 1.41 million, a 9.0% decline from the 1.55 million total from 2022. Single-family starts in 2023 totaled 945,000, down 6.0% from the previous year. Multifamily starts in 2023 totaled 469,000, down 14.4% compared to the previous year.”
“As an indicator of the economic impact of housing, there are now 671,000 single-family homes under construction; This is 11.4% lower than a year ago. Meanwhile, there are currently over 1.0 million apartments under construction. This is up 7.3% compared to a year ago (939,000). Total housing units now under construction (single-family and multifamily combined) are 1.0% lower than a year ago.”
The first chart below is from the SBCA. The second is provided by MHProNews to illustrate the stark contrast between what has occurred in conventional housing starts for single-family (SF or SFH) and multi-family housing (MFH) vs. new HUD Code manufactured home production.
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6) What the above illustrates in part is that MHI is apparently failing to promote the manufactured home industry in an effective manner. Conventional housing has overall grown significantly since 2013. Manufactured housing has had two downturns since they launched their “new class of manufactured homes” promotion that was later rebranded as CrossMod ® homes. MHI has proclaimed “momentum” twice in the last decade, and each time the industry went into a downturn. Even though manufactured housing is ‘rising’ again in 2024 vs. the downturn of 2023, it is still trailing production in 2020, trailing production in 2004 – when then MHI CEO Chris Stinebert said the industry would then begin to recover towards their production levels enjoyed in the mid-to-late 1990s.
7) Andy Gedo of ManageAmerica is arguably a pro-MHI member. For example, ManageAmerica has co-sponsored several MHI events.
a) That said, in perhaps the most robust ‘debate’ of MHI performance in the 21st century, Gedo attempted to make what he presumably deemed to be sound arguments for the evidence that MHProNews had published at that time about monopolization of the production side of the industry by Clayton Homes (BRK), Skyline Champion (SKY), and Cavco Industries (CVCO), the so-called “Big Three” producers of the industry and at MHI. As Gedo’s attempt to undermine MHProNews’ evidence, Gedo said the following as part of his ‘closing argument.’ Note that he posed the question, but apparently wanted to close the “dialog” or debate at that point?
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b) Gedo’s ‘closing argument’ included an implied slur (the false assertion of facts and common sense being equated with a ‘conspiracy theory’). But in fairness, Gedo tended to be respectful and factual while making his case. That noted, Gedo argued in his close: “Isn’t it in their [i.e.: the Big Three producers of Clayton, Cavco and Skyline-Champion] interest to increase MH sales and expand the market? Aren’t all the oars pulling in the same general direction? Why do I get the impression that you’re pushing some kind of conspiracy theory?”
c) Like it or not, Gedo’s arguments are not strengthened, but are apparently undermined by what has occurred since then. For instance. Is it a “conspiracy theory” that multiple antitrust-lawsuits alleging collusion by several MHI member brands have been launched on behalf of residents of those land-lease manufactured home community operators? Agree or disagree with their contention, the fact is that multiple attorneys felt there was sufficient evidence to make their suits worthwhile.
d) Also, since Gedo’s argument, consolidation of the manufactured home industry has continued on the production and retail side too, which is where the focus of the Gedo-Kovach debate occurred. Numbers of once independent companies have been part of the “mergers and acquisition” (M&A) or “consolidation” of the industry. That’s not a “conspiracy theory,” it is a documented reality. To illustrate that it wasn’t just a theory, are remarks made by the big three during earnings calls and/or in their own investor relations pitches. After Gedo’s remarks above, for example, was this remark by Laurie Hough, Executive Vice President (EVP) and Chief Financial Officer (CFO). She bluntly said their firm is “really more focused on the growth of the company through M&A. That would definitely be our top priority.”
e) During one of those industry downturns, Regional Homes was acquired by Skyline Champion.
g) Since Gedo’s ‘defense’ of MHI and its consolidators and ‘closing argument’ the remarks emerged from longtime Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway fame ally, William “Bill” Gates III. Buffett-led Berkshire acquired Clayton Homes, Oakwood Homes, and numbers of other once-independent producers of HUD Code manufactured homes.
h) Gates made the following observation quoted by left-leaning CNBC. Said Gates, per a report dated 11.8.2019 (so, well after the Gedo-Kovach monopolization of MHVille using moat tactics debate) said this:
“I didn’t even want to meet Warren because I thought, ‘Hey this guy buys and sells things, and so he found imperfections in terms of markets, that’s not value added to society, that’s a zero-sum game that is almost parasitic.’ That was my view before I met him … he wasn’t going to tell me about inventing something,” Gates said at the conference.”
i) Per that same CNBC report was the following.
Gates finally agreed to spend no more than a couple of hours at the dinner with Buffett before returning to work. But once the two men met, Gates said Buffett amazed him by pressing him with “amazingly good questions that nobody had ever asked,” Gates wrote in a 2016 blog post that reflected on his eventual decades-long friendship with the investor.
Their dinner conversation was enough to convince Gates that Buffett had plenty to offer. “I realize everything he does is based on a framework of the world where he’s judging — judging markets, judging people, judging how things work, in a very deep way,” Gates said at the DealBook conference. “I realized [that] although we come from different places, we’re both trying to model the world and what goes on.”
Buffett “didn’t come across as a big shot investor” during a dinner conversation that went on for “hours and hours,” Gates wrote in 2016. ”[Buffett] had this modest way of talking about what he does. He was funny, but what impressed me most was how clearly he thought about the world.”
That meeting sparked what has now been a nearly three-decade friendship between the two billionaires.”
j) So, Gates went from being a Buffett skeptic to a Buffett ally. Buffett didn’t change, Gates apparently embraced at least some Buffett’s thinking, perhaps including moats and methods of spotting weaknesses that allowed him to undermine markets. By keeping a market underperforming, the ‘threat’ of new entries is apparently reduced. By keeping a market underperforming, a steady consolidation of those in that market is more likely to occur. Gedo and Kevin Clayton both said as much, in their own words as they described “the moat.” Gedo was quite correct in the thrust of the following remarks. “Barriers to entry can sometimes be exploited through unfair competition to gain monopoly power in a market.” Note that Gedo correctly framed that as part of “a “moat”) that limits competition.”
8) Those aspects of Gedo’s observations noted above align with what Bud Labitan and his fellow researchers said about Clayton Homes’ durable competitive advantage (i.e.: part of “the moat”). Labitan wrote an entire chapter in his book about Clayton’s moat. See pages 77-81, in the book on Moats linked here.
Said Labitan: “Providing the financing for [Clayton’s] customers was a major factor in their success.”
Labitan also said: “How did Clayton build up its economic moat? In 2003, Berkshire did $2 billion of such borrowing and re-lending, with Clayton using much of this money to fund several large purchases of portfolios from lenders exiting the business.”
Note that Labitan is not a Berkshire or Clayton critic, rather, he is an admirer. Page 3 of Labitan’s book has only two quotes on it.
“A truly great business must have an enduring “moat” that protects
excellent returns on invested capital.”
~ Warren Buffett
“How do you compete against a true fanatic? You can only try to
build the best possible moat and continuously attempt to widen it.”
~ Charlie Munger
Labitan’s book is entitled: “Moats – The Competitive Advantages Of Buffett & Munger Businesses.” Labitan is all but writing a love letter praising Moats as operated by then Berkshire leaders Buffett and Munger.
That noted, the chapter on Clayton is entitled:
“CLAYTON HOMES COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES BUD LABITAN WITH ERIN SESTAK, UNO-CBA“
9) Note that some of the statements made by Labitan et al are arguably incorrect or unduly glowing in following the Buffett-Munger-Berkshire party line.
For instance, quoting from page 77 of Moats and the chapter on Clayton Homes is the following.
Buffett knew the company [i.e.: Clayton Homes] to be the class act of the manufactured
housing industry. His knowledge was acquired from making a mistake
of buying some distressed junk debt of Oakwood Homes. Buffett did not
understand how atrocious consumer-financing practices had become
throughout most of the manufactured housing industry. But he learned,
and Oakwood quickly went bankrupt.”
Those last three sentences are not what left-leaning MarketWatch reported. Part of what Labitan said in that chapter had some truth in it, but he was apparently wrong in asserting that “Oakwood quickly went bankrupt,” because Oakwood was already in bankruptcy when Buffett-led Berkshire made their big investment in the firm. Here is how MarketWatch reported it.
Buffett buys into Oakwood Homes
GREENSBORO, N.C. (CBS.MW) — Warren Buffett apparently has his eye on a new double-wide, judging from news that his holding company just ponied up help for a bankrupt mobile-home manufacturer.
On Saturday, Oakwood Homes OKWH said that Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, along with two other firms, have agreed to provide $215 million in debtor-in-possession financing to the troubled company, bringing its new liquidity facilities to a total of $415 million.
Oakwood announced it would take the Chapter 11 route on Nov. 15, citing “the continued poor performance of loans we originated in 2000 and before, as well as the deteriorating terms in the manufactured housing asset-backed securitization market into which we sell our loans.”
The company also said it was suffering from a declining recovery rate in the repo world, with all factors combining to result in its “loan servicing income being substantially eliminated,” while increasing the rates it has to pay for guarantees on paper it has previously issued.
Oakwood has been busily shuttering various manufacturing operations and turning out the lights on some retail operations in an attempt to stanch its losses, which totaled $119.8 million, or $12.61 per share, in its fiscal third quarter — wider than a loss of $50.2 million and $5.33 per share it recorded for the same period of 2001.
The credit infusion will buy the company more time in its restructuring efforts and CEO Myles E. Standish pronounced himself “delighted” with the new arrangements.
…
“We believe that the proposed $415 million of credit facilities should provide Oakwood with ample liquidity throughout the bankruptcy proceedings,” Standish said.
Under terms of the deal, when and if the company crawls out of Chapter 11, Berkshire Hathaway will become its largest shareholder. Current investors, meanwhile, will “receive a nominal value, consisting solely of out-of-the-money warrants for approximately 10 percent of the post-restructuring common shares.”
…
Founded in 1946, Oakwood went public 31 years ago, according to Hoover’s Online. This is its second major restructuring after a late 1980s crisis brought on by its heavy investments in Texas that went sour with the crash in oil prices. With over $1 billion in sales last year, Oakwood competes for its share of the mobile home market with companies including Fleetwood FLE, and Champion CHB, .
The entire industry has been under pressure of late, even in the face of a strong housing market. Factors weighing on the sector include its higher, less competitive interest rates on loans and a propensity to go after the low-hanging fruit, i.e. customers who are typically the first to suffer the effects of an economic downturn. …”
10) So, there may be reasons to believe that Oakwood was just phase one of a longer-term strategy by Buffett-led Berkshire to acquire stakes or ownership in sizable firms that could be expanded through the moat process. As a well-placed source told MHProNews, Buffett had been pondering investing in manufactured housing since 1988. The industry’s sharp downturn simply gave Buffett an opportunity to do so at a ‘bargain’ price. So, the largest of the Big Three became the largest through M&A or consolidation. To Gedo’s apparently flimsy allegation of ‘conspiracy theory,’ that’s not a theory. Rather, these items are facts.
By keeping the market underperforming, it de facto causes all business in it to be undervalued. Just luck, or is it part of the Buffett ‘Castle and Moat’ strategic plan to create a slowly developing monopoly?
11) There is an open question if Buffett saw the downturn of 1999 as being his opportunity. Buffett dumped his firm’s investment in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. After Berkshire fled those GSEs of Fannie and Freddie, the GSEs withdrew from financing manufactured home chattel loans. To illustrate, the following is per the popular Motley Fool financial news site.
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Per Motley Fool. Several of the illustrations shown in this report can be opened in many browsers to reveal a larger size. To open this picture, click the image once. When the window opens, click it again to reveal the larger size photo. Use your browsers back key to return to the article.
As HousingWire, periodically a pro-MHI media outlet in the Gooch-era, put it: “Faulty loans on mobile homes led to the downfall of the nation’s largest manufactured home lender in 2002, ensnaring Fannie Mae on its way down, an episode both GSEs remember well.”
12) Think Adviser said on 3.09.2003 the following. “Conseco Sells Former Green Tree Finance Unit For $1 Billion.”
Conseco Inc., Carmel, Indianapolis, has sold its finance subsidiary, Conseco Finance Corp., in a Chapter 11 sale that culminated March 5 in a winning bid of $1 billion.
Upon emergence from Chapter 11, Conseco will be engaged exclusively in the insurance business, the company says.
In 1998, Conseco bought Green Tree Financial Corp., Minneapolis, which became Conseco Finance, for $6 billion.
The proceeds from the sale of its finance unit are expected to be used to satisfy the creditors of Conseco Finance Corp., the company says.”
S&P Global said on 1.9.2004:
Conseco exited the manufactured home financing business and suspended its
loan assumption program in November 2002. The discontinuation of its loan
assumption program resulted in higher repossessions, and the suspension of
its manufactured home lending business has limited its ability to
liquidate repossessed units through retail channels, causing it to be more
reliant on wholesale liquidation channels. In conjunction with the
depressed repossession resale market, these factors have resulted in the
further weakening of recovery rates associated with these transactions.
Recovery rates on all of Conseco's manufactured housing transactions have
dissipated substantially.
Although delinquency levels have decreased in some transactions, the high
level of repossessions and increased loss severities have caused credit
support in Conseco's manufactured housing transactions to be significantly
depleted. Most of the transactions have experienced principal write-downs
on their subordinate classes and, in some cases, high losses have caused
the series' overcollateralization to reduce to zero, resulting in the
complete principal write-down on their B-2 classes and the partial
principal write-down of the B-1 classes.
In June 2003, Green Tree Investment Holdings LLC (formerly CFN Investment
Holdings LLC) completed its asset purchase from Conseco. Green Tree
Investment Holdings LLC is a joint venture between Fortress Investment
Group LLC, Cerberus Capital Management L.P., and JC Flowers & Co. LLC.
13) MarketWatch reported on 7.17.2003 the following under the headline: “Cerberus reconfirms interest in Clayton Homes.”
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) — Cerberus Capital Management reconfirmed its interest in pursuing an acquisition of Clayton Homes CMH, . In a letter to Clayton CEO and President Kevin Clayton released Thursday, Cerberus said it had a team of advisors prepared to start due diligence immediately. However, the private equity firm complained about the two weeks allotted for negotiations since Clayton shareholders will vote July 30 on a $1.7 billion rival proposal from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.”
Per this chart from Duke University in 2013, the market for asset backed securities (ABS) of manufactured housing. When Conseco/GreenTree and the GSEs pulled out of the manufactured home market, the market largely collapsed.
When FHA Title I lending (chattel loans) and the GSE facilitated loans vaporized, as the prior MHI president and CEO Gail Cardwell graphic below illustrated, combined with the loss of GSE securitization on manufactured home chattel loans, the sale of manufactured homes naturally slumped.
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The lack of securitization by the GSEs and/or origination of FHA Title I loans caused the most common form of manufactured home lending – chattel or ‘home only’ loans – to become more difficult to access. That in turn left Berkshire and Clayton Homes linked lending to become more important to the industry. 21st Mortgage Corporation and Vanderbilt Mortgage and Finance (VMF) became the two largest lenders, according to research by the Consumer Financial Protect Bureau (CFPB), including insights from their prior white paper on manufactured housing. Gedo framed that as follows with Kevin Clayton’s remarks following.
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14) As a result of 21st’s market power, when lending was pulled in the wake of the notorious Tim Williams/21st letter below, which Samuel Strommen said was an apparent antitrust violation, Clayton’s market share surged again. There was the initial growth of Berkshire-backed Clayton due to the loss of lending in the post-2002 meltdown. But this second surge of consolidation by Clayton et al occurred after the 2010 contraction in lending that Labitan said was part of Clayton’s “moat.” In the illustration that follows, notice in the right column how steadily the Clayton market share grew as a result of these loss-of-lending developments.
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So, before pressing onto more on Champion (SKY) and Cavco, what was once the top 25 in manufactured housing dramatically reshuffled in the wake of the disruption of the financing markets. Oakwood and Clayton were #3 and #4 in 1998. Champion and Fleetwood were #1 and #2. Today, Champion is Skyline-Champion. Today, Fleetwood is a subsidiary of Cavco Industries (CVCO). The industry’s top two (Champion-Fleetwood) in 1998 produced more manufactured homes than the entire HUD Code industry did in 2023, even though the U.S. population has grown significantly since then. 68,264+66,222 = 134,486 was what Champion and Fleetwood produced in 1998, vs. 89,169 for the entire industry in 2023.
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“In the business world, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” – Warren Buffett. That begs a key question. Why don’t more people LOOK at the rearview mirror so they can learn more about the patterns that influence what’s ahead? Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts.
Meaning, in response to Gedo’s closing arguments, underperformance in MHVille demonstrably resulted in consolidation. That is simply a fact. It was a fact before and after Gedo’s closing shot.
15) In fairness to Gedo, he may have sincerely believed that Clayton-Skyline Champion-Cavco were trying to grow the industry. That said, more evidence of the fallacy of his parting shot, quoted above, that asserted that they were working for growth is demonstrated in the reports linked below.
16) Berkshire Hathaway (Clayton, 21st, and VMF, Shaw, etc.), Skyline Champion, and Cavco are all represented on the MHI board of directors. So too are consolidation-focused community operators.
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17) Consolidation and underperformance – compared to historic levels – are a well-documented realities. The late Sam Zell bluntly said it. “We like the oligopoly nature of our [manufactured home] business.” Oxford Languages defines oligopoly as: “a state of limited competition, in which a market is shared by a small number of producers or sellers.”
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18) To Gedo’s credit, he engaged in a public debate that was largely respectful and largely factual. Now, it is true that neither Gedo, nor others associated with MHI, have since attempted to engage in such an online or live debate since then. Both before and since the Gedo-Kovach exchange, MHI has been invited to respond live or via email to concerns raised in reports like this one. They routinely decline. Since then, the evidence has only grown that MHI simply can’t be as incompetent as they apparently appear to be. They are educated. Several have strong industry experience. It isn’t just MHProNews, or MHARR, that has critiqued MHI without an apparently direct response from MHI.
As the above and below reveals, AI powered Copilot also has repeatedly questioned MHI’s leadership. Copilot has all but said that MHI leaders are liars and misleading individuals who duck accountability and transparency.
20) No one can be as incompetent as MHI leaders have been during much of the 21st century, particularly during the Berkshire era. Perhaps Gedo and ManageAmerica are in too deep at MHI to rock that boat.
21) Circling back to the Structural Building Components Association SBCA and 84 Lumber at IHS. They not only ‘showed up,’ they also have produced some items that promote their industry to a broader audience. That appears to be lacking with MHI, which seems more interested in posturing for industry members, perhaps with the goal of keeping their gaslighting moving ahead. MHI has 3 items in the news search below. None of them are due to MHI’s own efforts, rather, they are by other parties. By contrast, SBCA and 84 Lumber have about 2 pages of news results, before and after the IHS.
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22) Gedo has served his purpose, intentional or not, in helping to clarify the sobering reality that MHI is working for a small group of consolidators of the industry. People in and beyond MHI have said things that have proven embarrassing to MHI.
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23) It is up to someone in the MHI orbit to attempt to forge a narrative that can explain the various facts that this report, and those linked from it, has factually and logically outlined. Copilot, artificial intelligence that if anything should lean toward MHI (think Bill Gates-Buffett-Berkshire ties), has repeatedly (with the proper questions and follow ups) revealed that MHI is not behaving logically. See the two quotes from Copilot at the base of the illustration that follows.
24) No one can be as incompetent at organic growth for the industry as MHI’s leaders have been, given the financial and legal tools that are available. Given that this pattern has held during essentially all of the Berkshire era of MHVille history, it seems obvious that this is their desired status quo.
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25) MHI has fumbled away way to many opportunities. But in fairness, they represent what their corporate leaders want. Their corporate leaders are apparently okay with Gooch’s conflicts of interest. They are apparently okay with fumbling away opportunities for growth. Gooch is in no position to lecture Lee Ohanian and James Schmitz Jr., or anyone else in our editorial view. More on that another time, as Gooch has raised that topic apparently on MHI’s behalf. It may take a few days, but Gooch and MHI will be exposed again (thanks for that opportunity).
26) The preponderance of evidence points to MHI insiders working to consolidate the industry. There may be some noisy items that could be used to distract from that evidence-based argument. That is the simple explanation, Andy. It may be lengthy in proving it, but it is simple to grasp. The industry is underperforming. It has been for 25 years. Most of that time there have been good laws that could have been used to grow the industry. MHI has talked about those laws without taking legal action in support of those laws. That debate was between Gooch and Doug Ryan. In our view, while both could have done better, Ryan’s case was stronger.
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Note: depending on your browser or device, many images in this report and others on MHProNews can be clicked to expand. Click the image and follow the prompts. For example, in some browsers/devices you click the image and select ‘open in a new window.’ After clicking that selection, you click the image in the open window to expand the image to a larger size. To return to this page, use your back key, escape or follow the prompts.
To learn more, see the linked and related reports.
Part II – Our Daily Business News on MHProNews stock market recap which features our business-daily at-a-glance update of over 2 dozen manufactured housing industry stocks.
This segment of the Daily Business News on MHProNews is the recap of yesterday evening’s market report at the closing bell, so that investors can see-at-glance the type of topics may have influenced other investors. Our format includes our signature left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines for a more balanced report.
The macro market moves graphics below provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities. Meaning, you can see ‘at a glance’ how manufactured housing connected firms do compared to other segments of the broader equities market.
In minutes a day, readers can get a good sense of significant or major events while keeping up with the trends that may be impacting manufactured housing connected investing.
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This screen capture function failed yesterday. MHProNews regrets the error.
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This screen capture function failed yesterday. MHProNews regrets the error.
Notice: MHProNews invites the firms named in these reports to respond to any concerns about possibly inaccurate information via email that identifies the concern and offers evidence that sheds a different light on the topic discussed. That said, until 5.9.2024, neither MHI nor most MHI publicly traded ‘insider brands’ have done so. They’ve been repeatedly invited to do so, including but not limited to an outreach on Dec 7, 2o23 and Feb 25, 2024.
