The following report on conventional housing sales sliding includes information from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that was made available by the WND News Center to MHProNews. Part II of this report will include manufactured housing related analysis and commentary in brief. Part III is our Daily Business News on MHProNews that features macro- and manufactured housing connected stocks updates, along with a time saving and insight generating left- (CNN) and right (Newsmax) leaning headline news recap.
Part I
Home sales plunge to 2008 levels as record mortgage rates take their toll
‘Now sellers are offering a lot of incentives to get buyers to buy their house’
By WND News Services
Published October 16, 2023 at 11:07am
By Will Kessler
Daily Caller News Foundation
The U.S. real estate market is on track to sell the least number of homes since 2008, when Americans were engulfed in the subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The number of total existing-home sales is projected to reach only 4.1 million by the end of 2023, the lowest since around 2008, when the world was embroiled in a global financial crisis, despite a higher U.S. population, according to the WSJ. Mortgage rates are currently at their highest point since the year 2000, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 7.57%, bringing purchasing demands for housing to a three-decade low, according to Freddie Mac.
“The market has definitely started slowing,” Steven Fischer, a real estate agent in Savannah, Georgia, told the WSJ. “Everyone’s doing open houses, everyone’s doing price reductions, and now sellers are offering a lot of incentives to get buyers to buy their house.”
In an indicator that home sales will stay low for the coming months, purchase mortgages dropped to their lowest point since 1995 in September, according to the WSJ. Housing sales also typically seasonally decline during the fall and winter, meaning that existing home sales for the full year could drop below levels seen in 1995.
The faltering home sales could mean more Americans will have to continue or start renting their living spaces, which could push up prices as supply tightens, leading to inflation, according to the WSJ. The economy may face further depressing effects, like a lack of new home construction and fewer home appliance purchases, that would dampen growth.
Housing affordability has also sunk over the past year, reaching its lowest level since 1985 this past summer, according to the WSJ. The high unaffordability is unlikely to end as prices continue to increase despite rising mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates are feeling the effects of the Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate hikes, which have brought the rate to a range of 5.25% and 5.50% after a series of increases that started in March 2022. The Fed has raised rates in an attempt to squash persistently high inflation, which has remained far above the target rate of 2%, measuring at 3.7% in September.
This story originally was published by the Daily Caller News Foundation. ##
Part II – Additional Information with More MHProNews Analysis and Commentary
The math is simple, actually. When millions of Americans can’t qualify for a conventional house because of higher costs and higher interest rates, that ought to be an opportunity for the lower cost and inherently affordable manufactured home industry.
To illustrate the point, MHProNews asked Bing’s AI function the following question.
> “What percentage of U.S. renters can no longer qualify to buy the average cost of a house?”
Some of the most unaffordable cities for renters are San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Boston and Seattle, where the average renter would need to save for more than 20 years to afford a 20% down payment on a median-priced home1. On the other hand, some of the most affordable cities for renters are Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Memphis, where the average renter would need to save for less than five years to afford a 20% down payment on a median-priced home1.
If you are interested in learning more about housing affordability in the U.S., you can check out these sources:
Nevertheless, for whatever combination of reasons, the manufactured housing industry has failed to tap into that tremendous potential for industry growth. Some facts will illustrate that point.
- On September 5, 2023 The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) said that “HUD Code manufacturers produced 6,134 new homes in July 2023, a 23.8% decline from the 8,050 new HUD Code homes produced in July 2022.”
- On October 5, 2023 MHARR said: “Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 8,670 new homes in August 2023, a 19.1% decrease from the 10,722 new HUD Code homes produced in August 2022. Cumulative production for 2023 is now 58,692 homes, a 27% decrease from the 80,431 homes produced over the same period during 2022.”
- So, while year over year production is down, month-over-month, HUD Code manufacturers produced an increasing number of homes. 6,134 new homes were produced in July vs. 8,670 new homes in August 2023.
In a report MHProNews plans to examine later this week, the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) said that “…the hard data through August has retailers’ placement of homes outpacing shipments received for every month thus far in 2023,” according to Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association. The report also said that has been “leading to higher backlogs.”
Legacy Housing’s (LEGH) Curt Hodgson previously observed that too many in manufactured housing don’t think or plan very far out. Here is how Hodgson stated that point.
MHProNews recently reported insights into that prior backlog issue. Recall that some in MHVille claimed that the backlogs in 2022 may have included some fluff and were, in some cases, potentially avoidable. It’s a thorny topic that merits a careful look, in case something similar is brewing once again. See the report linked below for more details.
If manufactured housing returned to the production levels of 1995, as the Wall Street Journal reflected on sales levels for conventional housing that year, a similar move by manufactured housing would mean sharp growth. Why? Because manufactured housing was far outproducing the industry in the 1990s vs. what has been occurring in the 2020s. But note in chart below that manufactured home shipments as a percentage of conventional housing single family housing starts line was over 20 percent of new housing starts in 1995. That’s about double or more the percentage today of manufactured housing shipments compared to single family housing starts. Restated, in several respects, the manufactured housing industry is demonstrably underperforming by historic measures.
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The next graphic reflects that manufactured housing was well more than triple the production in 1995 that it appears to be year to date in 2023. At the current pace (through August 2023, the chart below was through July 2023), manufactured housing is on pace to produce some 88,038 (an average of 7,336.5 homes through August, times 12). In 1995, manufactured housing produced some 344,930 total HUD Code manufactured homes. Divide 344,930 by 88,038 (current annualized pace through August 2023) yields 3.91 more production then than now.
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For greater context to the WSJ remarks, see the data in the report linked below.
For more recent market insights and potentially relevant controversies, see the linked and related reports.
Part III – is our Daily Business News on MHProNews stock market recap which features our business-daily at-a-glance update of over 2 dozen manufactured housing industry stocks.
This segment of the Daily Business News on MHProNews is the recap of yesterday evening’s market report, so that investors can see at glance the type of topics may have influenced other investors. Thus, our format includes our signature left (CNN Business) and right (Newsmax) ‘market moving’ headlines.
The macro market move graphics below provide context and comparisons for those invested in or tracking manufactured housing connected equities. Meaning, you can see ‘at a glance’ how manufactured housing connected firms do compared to other segments of the broader equities market.
In minutes a day readers can get a good sense of significant or major events while keeping up with the trends that are impacting manufactured housing connected investing.
Reminder: several of the graphics on MHProNews can be opened into a larger size. For instance: click the image and follow the prompts in your browser or device to OPEN In a New Window. Then, in several browsers/devices you can click the image and increase the size. Use the ‘x out’ (close window) escape or back key to return.
Headlines from left-of-center CNN Business – from the evening of 10.16.2023
- Oil prices fluctuate as concerns mount over Middle East tensions
- Pedestrians walk by a Walgreens store that was set to close in October of 2021 in San Francisco, California. Walgreens had already shuttered numerous stores in the city since 2019.
- CVS, Walgreens and Rite Aid are closing thousands of stores. Here’s why
- In this photo illustration an Adobe logo seen displayed on a smartphone screen with a computer keyword in the background in Athens, Greece on November 18, 2021.
- Adobe previews new AI editing tools
- Ford Motor Company Executive Chairman Bill Ford delivers remarks on the future of American manufacturing, Monday, Oct. 16, 2023, in Dearborn, Mich.
- Bill Ford calls on striking union to ‘stop this now’
- In this May 20, 2020 photo, Former U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman Jr. looks on during a debate in Salt Lake City.
- UPenn in crisis over antisemitism allegations: Jon Huntsman is the latest donor to stop giving, and a board member resigns
- Ford Motor Company’s electric F-150 Lightning on the production line at their Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Michigan on September 8, 2022.
- Ford lays off 700 who were building electric version of F-150
- Lina Khan, Chair of the Federal Trade Commission, prepares for a Senate Judiciary Subcommittee hearing on antitrust laws and enforcement, at the U.S. Capitol, in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, September 20, 2022.
- Lina Khan’s rise was heralded as an antitrust revolution. Now she has to pull it off
- A Messenger mobile app displayed on a smartphone screen alongside that of Facebook, Instagram, X, WhatsApp, YouTube, TikTok, Threads, on August 15, 2023.
- The Israel-Hamas war reveals how social media sells you the illusion of reality
- Australia fines X, accusing it of ‘empty talk’ on fighting child sexual abuse online
- In this photo illustration, a Social Security card sits alongside checks from the U.S. Treasury on October 14, 2021 in Washington, DC.
- Social Security gains came back to earth. What that means for the economy
- TikTok steps up efforts to counter misinformation about Israel-Hamas war
- Rite Aid files for bankruptcy
- China’s movie theaters thrive as economic gloom descends. Hollywood is missing out
- Autoworkers in Canada OK deal with GM
- Taylor Swift’s ‘Eras’ sets box office record for concert movie
- For Palestinian Americans and activists, doxxing is nothing new
- Secret audio, a star witness, and ‘Thai prostitutes’ complicate Sam Bankman-Fried’s defense
- Israel-Hamas war risks further deglobalization and inflation
- Kaiser Permanente labor deal shows why short, disruptive strikes are becoming more common
- Reuters journalist Issam Abdallah killed in southern Lebanon, 6 others wounded
- Best Buy will soon stop selling DVDs
- The future of the auto industry will have an outsized impact on Black America
- Why is movie candy sold in boxes?
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Headlines from right-of-center Newsmax 10.16.2023
- Jordan Optimistic on Speaker Bid
- Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, says he’s optimistic about receiving the 217 votes to be named the new House speaker, but is willing to go to the floor vote when the chamber convenes Tuesday even if he does not have that number firmly in hand. [Full Story]
- Israel at War
- Leading US Conservatives: Defund Palestinians
- Hamas: 200-250 Israeli Captives in Gaza
- Israeli Military: 199 Hostages Being Held in Gaza
- Air Raid Sirens Send Blinken, Netanyahu Into Bunker
- Greenblatt: Abraham Accords Will Survive, but Iran Remains Enemy of Peace
- Russian, Chinese Foreign Ministers Discuss Middle East, Ukraine
- DeSantis Chartered Flight Returns 270 Americans from Israel
- Israel Radio: Possible Infiltration Near Israel-Lebanon Border
- Cardinal Offers Himself for Children Held by Hamas
- Iran Threatens Direct Intervention if Israel Invades Gaza
- Biden: Israeli Occupation of Gaza ‘Big Mistake’
- Biden Considering Trip to Israel in the Coming Days
- Could Hamas-Israel War Affect the 2024 US Election? |Platinum Article
- Biden: Backing Wars Won’t Overwhelm US
- The Race for Speaker
- GOP Senators Concerned About House Speaker Vacuum
- Jordan Faces Do-or-Die Week: Still Needs 15 or More Votes
- Group: GOP Challenger to Face Jordan Tuesday
- Turner: Deal With Dems on Speaker If GOP Can’t Elect One | video
- Jordan Aims for Tuesday Floor Vote
- Hakeem Jeffries: Bipartisan Talks on Speaker Underway
- Crenshaw to Jordan: End Pressure Tactics to Win Speakership
- Dick Morris: Americans Appalled at Fractured House GOP | video
- More The Race for Speaker
- Newsmax TV
- Napolitano: Israel Must Be ‘Proportional’ in Gaza
- Birnbaum: Hamas Attack Has Unified Israel Politically | video
- Keith Self: ‘Absolutely’ Biden Should Visit Israel
- IDF Official: Hamas Made Victims ‘Unrecognizable’ | video
- Blaine Holt: Biden Iran Comments ‘Beyond Disbelief’ | video
- DeSantis: Biden Admin Must Continue to Support Israel | video
- Morton Klein: World Now Sees Hamas Clearly | video
- Barak Schmuel, 17: Looking Forward to IDF Service | video
- David Friedman: Israel Fears Being ‘Handcuffed’ on Hamas | video
- Newsfront
- Trump Team: Judge’s Gag Order ‘Abomination’
- A spokesperson for Donald Trump blasted a federal judge’s narrow gag order on the former president… [Full Story]
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- Judge Imposes Limited Gag Order on Trump
- Biden Admin Wants Free Housing, More for 5.7M Migrants
- The Biden administration wants to provide 5.7 million migrants with [Full Story]
- Jordan Optimistic, Pads Support for Speaker Bid
- Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, told CNN on Monday that he’s optimisticabout [Full Story]
- Trump Seeks to Disprove Claims in Steele Dossier
- Donald Trump wants to give evidence in a London court to prove claims [Full Story]
- Biden Admin Settles Over Family Separations at Border
- A settlement filed Monday in a long-running lawsuit over the Trump [Full Story]
- Comer Seeks Biden Docs From Special Counsel
- President Joe Biden possibly held back from Congress classified [Full Story]
- Russia Launches Missile, Drone Attacks on Ukraine
- Russia launched five missiles and 12 kamikaze drones at Ukraine in an [Full Story]
- FBI Report: Violent Crime Down, Property Crime Up
- Violent crime across the U.S. decreased last year – dropping to about [Full Story]
- Related
- Walmart Anti-Theft Checkouts Lead to ‘Hostility’
- Opponents of Ohio Abortion Amendment Have ‘Mountain to Climb’
- The 2023 election season is already heating up in Ohio, and the No. 1 [Full Story] | Platinum Article
- Killing of Muslim Boy Investigated as a Hate Crime
- Attorney General Merrick Garland is opening a hate crimes [Full Story]
- Suzanne Somers Dead at 76 of Breast Cancer
- “Three’s Company” star and entrepreneur Suzanne Somers died early [Full Story]
- Related
- Most Women Miss Subtle Breast Cancer Symptoms
- Diabetes Drug Mounjaro Helped Dieters Lose 60 Pounds
- The medicine in the diabetes drug Mounjaro helped people with obesity [Full Story]
- Democrat Rep. Torres: Anti-Israel ‘Demon Must Be Exorcized
- Anti-Israel sentiment in the U.S. “is a demon that must be exorcised [Full Story]
- Could Hamas-Israel War Affect the 2024 US Election?
- Could Hamas-Israel War Affect the 2024 US Election?
- The surprise terror attack on Israel that killed at least 27 [Full Story] | Platinum Article
- Lindsey Graham to Iran: If You Escalate War, ‘We’re Coming for You’
- South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham on Sunday threatened Iran with [Full Story]
- Related
- Lindsey Graham, Key US Senators Traveling to Israel, Saudi Arabia to Push Deal
- Graham: Trump’s Hezbollah Remark ‘Huge Mistake’
- Rite Aid Files for Bankruptcy Amid Rising Debt
- Debt-laden Rite Aid filed for bankruptcy protection Sunday and said [Full Story]
- Greenblatt: Accords Will Survive, Iran Enemy of Peace
- You cannot negotiate with barbarians. I think we need to look no [Full Story]
- How to Prevent Common Pickleball Injuries
- Pickleball has become wildly popular, but that may be fueling a rise [Full Story]
- Poll: Ukrainians Continue to Support Zelenskyy, Military
- The Ukrainian people continue to support President Volodymyr [Full Story]
- Judge Imposes Limited Gag Order on Trump in Election Case
- The federal judge overseeing the 2020 election subversion case [Full Story]
- Baseball, Flag Football Approved for 2028 Olympics
- Baseball-softball, cricket and flag football were among five sports [Full Story]
- Cardinal Offers Himself for Children Held by Hamas
- Pope Francis’ representative in the Holy Land said on Monday he was [Full Story]
- Yellen: Too Early to Speculate on Israel Economic Fallout
- S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday it was too early to [Full Story]
- Biden: Backing Wars Won’t Overwhelm US
- As the U.S. national debt continues its climb beyond $33 trillion, [Full Story]
- Ecuadorians Elect New President to Fix Country
- Car horns in Quito blazed in celebration on Sunday as a partial vote [Full Story]
- Pence Reports Debt of $620K in Third Quarter
- Former Vice President Mike Pence’s campaign is reporting $620,000 in [Full Story]
- WSJ Survey: Economists Say US Will Avoid Recession
- Many economists now say the U.S. will avoid a recession, according to [Full Story]
- US Majority: Back Israel Response, Worry About US Terror
- A majority of Americans support Israel’s military response to Hamas’ [Full Story]
- Supreme Court Case Centers on $15,000 IRS Bill
- Charles and Kathleen Moore are about to have their day in the Supreme [Full Story]
- Pete Davidson, SNL: 9/11, Israel Trauma
- Saturday Night Live host Pete Davidson, whose New York firefighter [Full Story]
- Sullivan: Biden Pushing $2B Israel, Ukraine Aid Package
- White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday [Full Story]
- Dean Martin Sold a Car to Jay Leno, and It is Unique
- Brake For It
- More Newsfront
- Finance
- S&P 500 Likely to Rally in Q4: Morgan Stanley
- A rally in the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter of 2023 “is more likely than not,” Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said in a note…. [Full Story]
- Biden Destroys Trump’s Foreign Policy Achievements
- Bankman-Fried Jury Learn of $1.1B for Endorsements
- Choose Now: America as a Free Republic, or Police State?
- Latest CPI Proves Inflation Fight Must March On
- More Finance
- Health
- US Allows Broader Coverage of Key Alzheimer’s Test
- The U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) on Friday removed a policy that limited the use of a type of brain scan called amyloid PET to once per lifetime, a change that affords patients a non-invasive test to determine if they are eligible for newly… [Full Story]
- Scientists Spot Genes Linked to Raynaud’s Phenomenon
- Most Women Miss Subtle Breast Cancer Symptoms
- Enrollment for Medicare Advantage Opens Sunday
- New Option for UTIs — No Antibiotics
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- NOTE 1: Chart above of manufactured housing connected equities includes the Canadian stock, ECN, which purchased Triad Financial Services, a manufactured home industry finance lender.
- NOTE 2: Drew changed its name and trading symbol at the end of 2016 to Lippert (LCII).
- NOTE 3: Deer Valley was largely taken private, say company insiders in a message to MHProNews on 12.15.2020, but there are still some outstanding shares of the stock from the days when it was a publicly traded firm. Thus, there is still periodic activity on DVLY.
- Note 4: some recent or related reports to the REITs, stocks, and other equities named above follow in the reports linked below.
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2023 …Berkshire Hathaway is the parent company to Clayton Homes, 21st Mortgage, Vanderbilt Mortgage and other factory-built housing industry suppliers.
· LCI Industries, Patrick, UFPI, and LP each are suppliers to the manufactured housing industry, among others.
· AMG, CG, and TAVFX have investments in manufactured housing related businesses. For insights from third-parties and clients about our publisher, click here.
2022 was a tough year for many stocks. Unfortunately, that pattern held true for manufactured home industry (MHVille) connected stocks too. See the facts, linked above.
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Disclosure. MHProNews holds no positions in the stocks in this report.
· For expert manufactured housing business development or other professional services, click here.
· To sign up in seconds for our industry leading emailed headline news updates, click here.
- Note 1: MHVille means manufactured housing industry, MHVille also means artificially smaller manufactured housing (MH) industry,
- Note 2: Manufactured housing, building, factories, retail, dealers, manufactured home, communities, passive mobile home park investing, suppliers, brokers, finance, financial services, macro-markets, manufactured housing stocks, Manufactured Home Communities Real Estate Investment Trusts, MHC REITs.
That’s a wrap on this installment of “News Through the Lens of Manufactured Homes and Factory-Built Housing” © where “We Provide, You Decide.” © (Affordable housing, manufactured homes, stock, investing, data, metrics, reports, fact-checks, analysis, and commentary. Third-party images or content are provided under fair use guidelines for media.) (See Related Reports, further below. Text/image boxes often are hot-linked to other reports that can be access by clicking on them.)
By L.A. “Tony” Kovach – for MHProNews.
Tony earned a journalism scholarship along with numerous awards in history. There have been several awards, honors and numerous public recognitions for his achievements in manufactured housing. For example, he earned the prestigious Lottinville Award in history from the University of Oklahoma, where he studied history and business management. Kovach is a managing member and co-founder of LifeStyle Factory Homes, LLC, the parent company to MHProNews, and MHLivingNews.com, which is ranked as the runaway most read trade media in modern manufactured housing history. This article reflects the LLC’s and/or the writer’s editorial views and may or may not reflect the views of sponsors or supporters.
